About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher last week and the market has developed into a short term trading range after trading higher to start the week.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 111.43 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March.  Support is at 11450, 11270, and 10980 March, with resistance of 11760, 11830 and 11960 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 04, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   292,287

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   86,488     9,254    57,297    42,745   210,588    85,341     6,358   271,871   283,497:   20,417     8,790

    : Changes from: December 28, 2021          (Change in open interest:      17,720)         :

    :    4,999       120     7,635     2,326     9,154     1,803      -106    16,763    16,803:      958       917

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     29.6       3.2      19.6      14.6      72.0      29.2       2.2      93.0      97.0:      7.0       3.0

    : Total Traders:   290          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      137        32        81        54        62        48        18       260       176:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little lower last week but trends are still mostly up on the daily and weekly charts.  The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories of FCOJ are now 21.1% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 145.00 and 150.00 March.  Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 149.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 4, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    13,449                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,258    10,314     1,797         0         5     1,963       373        36     1,220       303     1,592 :

: Changes from:     December 28, 2021                                                                          :

:      -60       922        59         0         5       413      -485        19         0       -78       316 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     31.7      76.7      13.4       0.0       0.0      14.6       2.8       0.3       9.1       2.3      11.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    68                     :

:       16        15         6         0         .        14         .         .        18         .         7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York closed higher and London closed a little lower last week as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.516 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 206.18 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 256.00 March.  Support is at 237.00, 232.00, and 227.00 March, and resistance is at 242.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2300 and 2240 March.   Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 March, and resistance is at 2360, 2380, and 2410 March[JS1] .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 04, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   332,775

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   49,081    10,664   106,359    94,348   191,292    72,471    17,269   322,259   325,585:   10,516     7,190

    : Changes from: December 28, 2021          (Change in open interest:       3,927)         :

    :     -884       119     6,305    -2,736    -2,592     1,075       398     3,760     4,230:      167      -303

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     14.7       3.2      32.0      28.4      57.5      21.8       5.2      96.8      97.8:      3.2       2.2

    : Total Traders:   435          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :     150        71       135       126       136        46        17       382       314:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/04/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  130,974       45,251        91,597        3,607     9,843         946

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          34.5%         69.9%         2.8%      7.5%          0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   149            39            48            8         8            8

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  52,172         2,499         5,564     2,459        2,268          15,298

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  39.8%          1.9%          4.2%      1.9%         1.7%           11.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    48            3             7         15           8               15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,677        2,959

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  4.3%         2.3%

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower last week on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again.  More showers are in the forecast for central south areas and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of renewed lockdowns in Europe due to Covid.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1770 March.  Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1720 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 483.00 March.  Support is at 483.00, 479.00, and 477.00 March and resistance is at 495.00, 500.00, and 506.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 04, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,023,556

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  139,232    51,120   209,050   333,625   629,688   262,278    75,448   944,186   965,306:   79,371    58,250

    : Changes from: December 28, 2021          (Change in open interest:       5,106)         :

    :   -6,416     6,744     3,344     8,418    -9,305     2,773     2,651     8,119     3,434:   -3,013     1,673

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.6       5.0      20.4      32.6      61.5      25.6       7.4      92.2      94.3:      7.8       5.7

    : Total Traders:   255          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       80        39        78        84        77        41        18       233       187:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/04/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  60,287        27,864        45,296        7,490      2,750         1,850

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          46.2%         75.1%         12.4%      4.6%          3.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

      98          32            35            6          4            4

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

   9,887         2,591         4,385     2,742        217             801

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  16.4%          4.3%          7.3%      4.5%         0.4%            1.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    22            6             8         7            3               7

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,268        2,397

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.7%         4.0%

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York and London a little higher as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 4.646 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2480, 2450, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2410, 2570, and 2600 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1740 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 04, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   271,934

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   21,649    38,161    60,001   116,658   131,288    60,897    32,191   259,205   261,642:   12,729    10,293

    : Changes from: December 28, 2021          (Change in open interest:         -72)         :

    :   -3,367    -2,286      -154    -1,645        92     4,225     1,931      -941      -417:      869       346

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      8.0      14.0      22.1      42.9      48.3      22.4      11.8      95.3      96.2:      4.7       3.8

    : Total Traders:   215          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       53        68        70        50        36        30        22       177       158:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/04/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  308,277       186,234       213,799       43,986     13,871        7,727

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          60.4%         69.4%         14.3%      4.5%          2.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   135            48            36           11          7            8

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  25,570         34,558        8,734     8,625        711            25,713

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   8.3%          11.2%         2.8%      2.8%         0.2%            8.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    21            25            17        11           5               15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,688        3,164

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.5%         1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322