About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures lower yesterday as traders try to digest a weaker export sales report.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 111.43 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.  USFA said yesterday that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 143,200 bales this year and 44,900 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 4,400 bales this year and 900 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March.  Support is at 11450, 11270, and 10980 March, with resistance of 11760, 11830 and 11960 March.

DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Jan 6 

    In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department

Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

                                      ——- In Kilograms ——-

                                Nov 21      Oct 21      Sep 21        Nov 20

Upland, under 1 inch         1,971,337   1,773,716   1,750,805    11,512,660

  1 to 1 1/8 inch           32,041,255  34,303,464  49,439,207    89,908,226

  upland 1 1/8 and over      5,107,573   6,589,664   3,985,500   171,784,969

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc   64,822,321  55,826,865  66,999,017    16,534,860

All cotton                 103,942,486  98,493,709 122,174,529   289,740,715

                              ——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-

                                Nov 21      Oct 21      Sep 21        Nov 20

Upland, under 1 inch             9,054       8,147       8,041        52,877

  1 to 1 1/8 inch              147,164     157,555     227,072       412,945

  upland 1 1/8 and over         23,459      30,266      18,305       789,002

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc      297,726     256,411     307,724        75,944

All cotton                     477,404     452,378     561,143     1,330,768

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 6 

   As of Dec 31. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

   *-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

              Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

             Sales                     Purchases

Dec 21            0         0        0          0         0       0

Mar 22       50,916    51,771     -855      9,427     9,817    -390

May 22       22,280    21,528      752      2,668     2,657      11

Jul 22       48,367    47,310    1,057      5,434     5,461     -27

Oct 22            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 22       13,937    13,784      153     14,275    14,559    -284

Mar 23        3,024     2,980       44        782       780       2

May 23        1,250     1,250        0          0         0       0

Jul 23        1,302     1,302        0         44        44       0

Dec 23        2,374     2,440      -66      5,324     5,333      -9

Jul 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Dec 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Total       143,450   142,365    1,085     38,394    39,091    -697

              Open      Open   Change

               Int       Int

Dec 21            0         0        0

Mar 22      120,216   119,166    1,050

May 22       52,927    49,941    2,986

Jul 22       26,865    25,003    1,862

Oct 22           44        38        6

Dec 22       33,200    32,780      420

Mar 23        2,341     2,279       62

May 23          371       381      -10

Jul 23          224       226       -2

Dec 23        3,708     3,657       51

Jul 24            0         0        0

Dec 24            0         0        0

Total       239,896   233,471    6,425

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower but trends are still mostly up on the daily charts.  The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories of FCOJ are now 21.1% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 145.00 and 150.00 March.  Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 133.00 March, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 146.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York closed little changed yesterday but London closed lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.516 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 301.20 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 236.00 and 256.00 March.  Support is at 227.00, 225.00, and 223.00 March, and resistance is at 235.00, 242.00 and 248.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2300 and 2240 March.   Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2260 March, and resistance is at 2330, 2360, and 2380 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again.  More showers are in the forecast for central south areas and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of renewed lockdowns in Europe due to Covid.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1770 March.  Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 483.00 March.  Support is at 483.00, 479.00, and 477.00 March and resistance is at 495.00, 500.00, and 506.00 March.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York closed lower again yesterday and London was also lower as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 4.646 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2420, 2380, and 2370 March, with resistance at 2470, 2510, and 2570 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1630, 1620, and 1610 March.  Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1680, 1700, and 1720 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322