Fed Minutes Hawkish. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/06/2022

We start off the day with Export Sales, Challenger Job Cuts (Dec), U.S. Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims  (01/Jan), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (01/Jan) and Continuing Jobless claims (25/Dec) at 7:30 A.M., ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec), Factory Orders MoM (Nov), Factory Orders ex-Transportation (Nov), ISM Non-manufacturing Business Activity (Dec), ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec),

ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Dec) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 7.5 to 30 yrs. at 10:20 A.M., and 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M.

On the Corn Front funds were net sellers of about 6,000 contracts in yesterdays action. South American weather brought the market up and brought the market down in yesterday’s action. Export Sales are expected to be 500 to 1,200 mt versus 1,246 last week. Whispers are circling that China may come back and do some more buying. The old adage in commodities is buy rumor and sell fact. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 600 ¾ which is 1 ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 602 ½ to 596 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front production was up 12% from last year while stocks were down 8% from last year. This is telling me this is a global market that is poised for liftoff. There were no trades or open interest in the ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front yesterdays EIA showed draws in crude and builds in products.  The market is flirting with $80 a barrel. I expect this market to test $147 and change an all-time high in crude oil. The current energy policy must change. In the overnight electronic session the February crude oil is currently trading at 7865 which is 180 points higher. The trading range has been 7995 to 7673.

On the Natural Gas front we are trading a little easier this morning with the February contract currently trading at 3.860 which is 0.022 lower. The trading range has been 3.931 to 3.801. We have the weekly EIA Gas Storage this morning and the Thomson Reuters poll with 17 analysts participating estimates range from withdrawals of 83 bcf to 31 bcf with the median 50 bcf and the actual 54 bcf. This compares to the one-year withdrawal of 153 bcf and the five-year average withdrawal of 144 bcf.

Dan Flynn

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