About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed sharply higher yesterday on follow through buying as the bull market remains.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 110.02 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March.  Support is at 11450, 11270, and 10980 March, with resistance of 11830, 11960 and 12080 March.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher again and trends are up on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories of FCOJ are now 21.1% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 and 150.00 March.  Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 146.00, 149.00, and 152.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York closed sharply higher yesterday but London closed lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.535 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 196.55 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 236.00 and 256.00 March.  Support is at 230.00, 227.00, and 225.00 March, and resistance is at 235.00, 242.00 and 248.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 March, and resistance is at 2360, 2380, and 2410 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York was mostly a little lower and London was a little lower on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of renewed lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Ideas are that the supplies are availa le from India and Thailand but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1830 and 1770 March.  Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1960 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 479.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York closed lower again yesterday and London was also lower as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.658 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2510, 2570, and 2600 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1690, 1720, and 1730 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322