About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 5 

Source: CME Group

             Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity    Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

ROUGH RICE   January    Jan 06, 2022                1   Jan 04, 2022

SOYBEAN      January    Jan 06, 2022              394   Jan 04, 2022

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher yesterday in recovery trading but demand remains disappointing.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced a few weeks ago that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 751, 711, and 709 March.  Support is at 751, 741, and 736 March, with resistance at 776, 793, and 808 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of  777, 759, and 749 March.  Support is at 786, 779, and 770 March, with resistance at 811, 829, and 850 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 946 and 871 March.  Support is at 960, 952, and 945 March, and resistance is at 991, 1001, and 1012 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  :  Rice was lower in early trading, then rallied sharply and then fell back to close a little higher after a wild session.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling.  Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1443, 1435, and 1427 March and resistance is at 1479, 1488, and 1491 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 5 

 USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.14         9.00       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.11         9.03       0.00

Brokens                8.97         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday and the short term trends are turning up to go along with the longer term trends in the market.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  Some showers were reported in central Argentina but northern Argentina remains hot and dry.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 599, 592, and 585 March, and resistance is at 618, 622, and 628 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 675, 650, and 646 March, and resistance is at 709, 725, and 736 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products traded higher again yesterday as the South American weather situation remains a mixed bag   The rains over the weekend mostly fell in central Argentina and then in Parana with RGDS farther south and also Paraguay and northern Argentina still mostly dry. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally..  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it might be too wet for Soybeans in at least some of these areas as Soybeans do not like very wet soils.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather continues in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 130 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of oybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1414 and 1473 March.  Support is at 1368, 1355, and 1348 March, and resistance is at 1396, 1408, and 1420 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.   Support is at 408.00, 402.00, and 398.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 418.00, and 421.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5980 and 6200 March.  Support is at 5760, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5860, 5980, and 6040 March;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher yesterday and today as rains hit Malaysia over the weekend and caused floods and renewed production concerns.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was higher along with the Chicago price action.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00 and 1077.00 March.  Support is at 1011.00, 996.00, and 979.00 March, with resistance at 1033.00, 1040.00, and 1046.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4860, 4800, and 4740 March, with resistance at 4990, 5050, and 5120 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry today, a little snow tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

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July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

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[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 4 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1020.60     7.80     Jan. 2022    dn  6.30

Basis: Thunder Bay  1066.40    45.00     Mar. 2022    up  3.80

Basis: Vancouver    1096.40    75.00     Mar. 2022    up  4.80

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-

414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 5 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1342.50      +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1312.50      +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1262.50      +35.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1170.00      +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1095.00      +17.50      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Jan           1345.00      +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1315.00      +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1265.00      +35.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1172.50      +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1097.50      +17.50      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1350.00     +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1260.00     +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          5,450.00    +120.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan            538.00     +18.00      Unquoted    –        –

($1=MYR4.1912)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 05 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 187,508 lots, or 11.00 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     5,960     5,960     5,906     5,908     5,929     5,932         3       472     1,663

Mar-22     5,847     5,894     5,824     5,880     5,798     5,861        63   140,866   160,455

May-22     5,877     5,932     5,851     5,912     5,837     5,895        58    32,871    37,590

Jul-22     5,813     5,907     5,813     5,886     5,813     5,870        57    12,721    25,535

Sep-22     5,794     5,833     5,759     5,811     5,747     5,801        54       478       992

Nov-22     5,617     5,658     5,580     5,644     5,589     5,626        37       100     1,090

Corn

Turnover: 543,991 lots, or 14.68 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     2,619     2,636     2,619     2,634     2,618     2,633        15     2,835     8,445

Mar-22     2,665     2,672     2,656     2,665     2,659     2,665         6    71,081   252,520

May-22     2,700     2,716     2,692     2,711     2,695     2,704         9   409,232   983,845

Jul-22     2,707     2,723     2,703     2,717     2,706     2,712         6    32,677   111,787

Sep-22     2,695     2,718     2,690     2,714     2,688     2,706        18    15,619    40,148

Nov-22     2,677     2,699     2,676     2,698     2,677     2,685         8    12,547    18,472

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,060,486 lots, or 34.92 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,456     3,466     3,456     3,466     3,403     3,462        59        30       2,071

Mar-22     3,380     3,456     3,378     3,452     3,390     3,419        29   104,124     325,292

May-22     3,242     3,298     3,238     3,293     3,247     3,274        27   787,718   1,453,763

Jul-22     3,240     3,293     3,234     3,288     3,243     3,264        21    46,114     184,012

Aug-22     3,286     3,346     3,284     3,327     3,292     3,312        20    23,866     107,697

Sep-22     3,289     3,337     3,283     3,329     3,291     3,317        26    70,296     132,957

Nov-22     3,282     3,339     3,277     3,319     3,288     3,309        21    24,231      42,829

Dec-22     3,203     3,283     3,203     3,280     3,245     3,262        17     4,107       2,932

Palm Oil

Turnover: 772,862 lots, or 68.48 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,938     9,938     9,702     9,888     9,630     9,876       246       193     3,711

Feb-22     9,586     9,798     9,586     9,696     9,526     9,654       128    34,276    38,912

Mar-22     9,370     9,574     9,340     9,496     9,302     9,472       170    26,112    59,715

Apr-22     9,048     9,250     9,022     9,166     8,986     9,154       168     9,411    39,367

May-22     8,736     8,920     8,694     8,816     8,660     8,808       148   676,539   448,592

Jun-22     8,524     8,760     8,476     8,574     8,438     8,578       140    12,004    20,925

Jul-22     8,336     8,538     8,318     8,422     8,286     8,442       156     5,607     6,451

Aug-22     8,318     8,366     8,208     8,304     8,126     8,306       180       113     4,263

Sep-22     8,038     8,240     8,036     8,156     8,002     8,144       142     8,190    16,412

Oct-22     7,984     8,180     7,984     8,088     7,930     8,060       130        32       337

Nov-22     7,932     8,076     7,912     7,964     7,852     7,946        94       379     1,801

Dec-22     7,876     7,944     7,870     7,944     7,800     7,898        98         6       465

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 819,688 lots, or 74.11 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,030     9,330     9,030     9,228     9,132     9,280       148       584     1,052

Mar-22     9,186     9,398     9,166     9,296     9,190     9,276        86    43,724   116,137

May-22     8,950     9,142     8,914     9,044     8,934     9,040       106   738,718   544,263

Jul-22     8,800     8,968     8,744     8,882     8,746     8,878       132    16,968    83,461

Aug-22     8,702     8,906     8,676     8,806     8,672     8,786       114     4,594    34,274

Sep-22     8,622     8,798     8,584     8,716     8,576     8,702       126    11,371    18,447

Nov-22     8,516     8,694     8,478     8,592     8,482     8,596       114     1,995    13,021

Dec-22     8,420     8,644     8,420     8,536     8,430     8,522        92     1,734       409

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322