Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 01/04/2022
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying as the bull market remained alive. Nearby prices closed lower to the lows of the day than the highs, but trends remain up on the charts. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 110.02 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 11720 and 12010 March. Support is at 11270, 10980, and 10940 March, with resistance of 11570, 11620 and 11830 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 274,567
: Positions :
: 81,489 9,134 49,662 40,419 201,434 83,538 6,464 255,108 266,694: 19,459 7,873
: :
: Changes from: December 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 6,628) :
: 3,472 321 767 992 5,659 159 13 5,390 6,760: 1,238 -132
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.7 3.3 18.1 14.7 73.4 30.4 2.4 92.9 97.1: 7.1 2.9
: :
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 30 74 54 64 46 17 253 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and trends are back to up on the daily charts. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories of FCOJ are now 21.1% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 and 150.00 March. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 143.00, 146.00, and 149.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,693 :
: Positions :
: 4,318 9,392 1,738 0 0 1,550 858 17 1,220 381 1,276 :
: :
: Changes from: December 21, 2021 :
: -422 1,529 -73 -72 -26 294 -1,156 -71 -9 -142 309 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 34.0 74.0 13.7 0.0 0.0 12.2 6.8 0.1 9.6 3.0 10.1 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 16 15 6 0 0 11 . . 17 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday with London closed even as the logistical problems keeping Coffee away from the US and Europe remain. The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems. Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.538 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 196.55 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 221.00, 218.00, and 215.00 March, and resistance is at 230.00, 232.00 and 225.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 March, and resistance is at 2380, 2410, and 2440 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 328,848
: Positions :
: 49,965 10,544 100,054 97,084 193,884 71,396 16,872 318,499 321,354: 10,350 7,494
: :
: Changes from: December 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 2,335) :
: -1,534 17 187 2,518 2,606 652 -85 1,821 2,724: 513 -389
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 3.2 30.4 29.5 59.0 21.7 5.1 96.9 97.7: 3.1 2.3
: :
: Total Traders: 413 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 62 122 121 135 45 18 361 297:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments: New York was a little lower and London was closed on reports of very beneficial and timely rains for dry central-south areas of Brazil. Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the rains. Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US. However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1830 and 1770 March. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1960 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 479.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,018,450
: Positions :
: 145,648 44,376 205,706 325,208 638,993 259,505 72,797 936,067 961,873: 82,383 56,577
: :
: Changes from: December 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 2,030) :
: -2,392 -2,648 2,255 861 5,983 -2,081 -4,034 -1,357 1,555: 3,387 475
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 4.4 20.2 31.9 62.7 25.5 7.1 91.9 94.4: 8.1 5.6
: :
: Total Traders: 244 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 32 73 81 77 40 19 223 180:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little lower again yesterday and London was closed for a holiday as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.666 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2620 March. Support is at 2460, 2420, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1780 March. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 272,006
: Positions :
: 25,017 40,447 60,155 118,302 131,197 56,672 30,260 260,146 262,059: 11,859 9,947
: :
: Changes from: December 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 278) :
: 157 -564 1,480 -2,077 1,020 973 -1,473 533 462: -254 -184
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 14.9 22.1 43.5 48.2 20.8 11.1 95.6 96.3: 4.4 3.7
: :
: Total Traders: 218 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 72 66 51 36 31 22 175 161:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322