Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 01/03/2022
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher again last week on follow through buying as the bull market remained alive. Trends remain up on the charts. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 111.20 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 192,200 bales this year and 24,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 7,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11720 and 12010 March. Support is at 11270, 10980, and 10940 March, with resistance of 11570, 11620 and 11830 March.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and closed near te highs of the recent trading range. The trends are still sideways to up on the charts. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 130.00 March, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 March.
DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jan 3
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
12/18/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/18/2021 12/19/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 184.93 228.70 -19.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.59 5.58 0.2%
Total 190.52 234.27 -18.7%
Pack
Bulk 3.21 4.92 -34.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.56 1.34 16.3%
Total Pack 4.77 6.26 -23.9%
Reprocessed -3.52 -2.97 18.5%
Pack from Fruit 1.24 3.29 -62.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.05 -0.11 -56.0%
Imports – Foreign 3.90 8.60 -54.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.13 0.13 -0.7%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.10 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.04 -39.6%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 188.72 239.30 -21.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.15 6.92 3.3%
Total 195.87 246.22 -20.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.55 5.04 -9.8%
Exports 0.63 0.09 593.3%
Total (Bulk) 5.18 5.13 1.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.37 1.20 14.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.37 1.20 14.8%
Total Movement 6.56 6.33 3.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 183.54 234.17 -21.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.78 5.72 0.9%
Ending Inventory 189.32 239.89 -21.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
18-Dec-21 19-Dec-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Pack
Bulk 13.49 16.42 -17.8%
Retail/Institutional 13.25 11.61 14.2%
Total Pack 26.75 28.02 -4.6%
Reprocessed -23.75 -19.03 24.8%
Pack from Fruit 3.00 8.99 -66.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.50 -0.17 200.2%
Imports – Foreign 15.54 32.01 -51.5%
Domestic Receipts 1.17 0.15 706.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 2.34 0.11 1982.6%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.02 3.57 -99.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.79 0.79 0.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 235.76 287.95 -18.1%
Retail/Institutional 19.33 17.17 12.6%
Total 255.10 305.12 -16.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 47.31 50.22 -5.8%
Domestic 4.92 3.57 37.9%
Exports 52.22 53.78 -2.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 13.56 11.45 18.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 13.56 11.45 18.5%
Total Movement 65.78 65.23 0.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 183.54 234.17 -21.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.78 5.72 0.9%
Ending Inventory 189.32 239.89 -21.1%
COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower Friday on some positioning before the end of the year, but the logistical problems keeping Coffee away from the US and Europe remain. Futures were lower in New York for the week, but a little higher in London. The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.541 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 200.46 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 223.00, 221.00, and 218.00 March, and resistance is at 230.00, 232.00 and 225.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 March, and resistance is at 2380, 2410, and 2440 March.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
130,624 46,445 90,015 3,186 10,998 570
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.6% 68.9% 2.4% 8.4% 0.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 38 46 7 9 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
50,404 2,014 5,682 2,204 3,297 15,721
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
38.6% 1.5% 4.4% 1.7% 2.5% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 3 8 14 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,412 2,327
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 1.8%
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher on Friday, but lower for the week on reports of very beneficial and timely rains for dry central-south areas of Brazil. Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the rains. Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US. However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1830 and 1770 March. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1960 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 479.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
59,793 26,705 44,692 7,432 2,829 2,156
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.7% 74.7% 12.4% 4.7% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
96 33 33 7 5 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,871 2,748 4,789 2,892 202 418
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.5% 4.6% 8.0% 4.8% 0.3% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 6 9 7 3 4
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,530 1,959
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 3.3%
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again Friday but higher for the week as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 4.675 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2620 March. Support is at 2490, 2460, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1780 March. Support is at 1700, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
306,597 188,841 217,209 40,495 8,366 8,187
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 61.6% 70.8% 13.2% 2.7% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 48 36 13 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,200 35,474 8,285 8,520 494 25,473
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 11.6% 2.7% 2.8% 0.2% 8.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 23 15 11 5 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,596 3,109
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.5% 1.0%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322