About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher again last week on follow through buying as the bull market remained alive.  Trends remain up on the charts.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 111.20 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.  USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 192,200 bales this year and 24,400 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 7,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11720 and 12010 March.  Support is at 11270, 10980, and 10940 March, with resistance of 11570, 11620 and 11830 March.

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher and closed near te highs of the recent trading range.  The trends are still sideways to up on the charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 130.00 March, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 March.

 

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jan 3

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

12/18/2021                                 Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

12/18/2021       12/19/2020   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            184.93           228.70     -19.1%

Retail/Institutional              5.59             5.58       0.2%

Total                           190.52           234.27     -18.7%

Pack

Bulk                              3.21             4.92     -34.8%

Retail/Institutional              1.56             1.34      16.3%

Total Pack                        4.77             6.26     -23.9%

Reprocessed                      -3.52            -2.97      18.5%

Pack from Fruit                   1.24             3.29     -62.2%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.05            -0.11     -56.0%

Imports – Foreign                 3.90             8.60     -54.6%

Domestic Receipts                 0.13             0.13      -0.7%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.10             0.00         NA

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.00             0.00         NC

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.02             0.04     -39.6%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            188.72           239.30     -21.1%

Retail/Institutional              7.15             6.92       3.3%

Total                           195.87           246.22     -20.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          4.55             5.04      -9.8%

Exports                           0.63             0.09     593.3%

Total (Bulk)                      5.18             5.13       1.0%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.37             1.20      14.8%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.37             1.20      14.8%

Total Movement                    6.56             6.33       3.6%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            183.54           234.17     -21.6%

Retail/Institutional              5.78             5.72       0.9%

Ending Inventory                189.32           239.89     -21.1%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

18-Dec-21        19-Dec-20  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            226.65           254.09     -10.8%

Retail/Institutional              6.08             5.56       9.4%

Total                           232.73           259.65     -10.4%

Pack

Bulk                             13.49            16.42     -17.8%

Retail/Institutional             13.25            11.61      14.2%

Total Pack                       26.75            28.02      -4.6%

Reprocessed                     -23.75           -19.03      24.8%

Pack from Fruit                   3.00             8.99     -66.7%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.50            -0.17     200.2%

Imports – Foreign                15.54            32.01     -51.5%

Domestic Receipts                 1.17             0.15     706.0%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         2.34             0.11    1982.6%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.02             3.57     -99.4%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.79             0.79       0.1%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            235.76           287.95     -18.1%

Retail/Institutional             19.33            17.17      12.6%

Total                           255.10           305.12     -16.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             47.31            50.22      -5.8%

Domestic                          4.92             3.57      37.9%

Exports                          52.22            53.78      -2.9%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         13.56            11.45      18.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              13.56            11.45      18.5%

Total Movement                   65.78            65.23       0.9%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            183.54           234.17     -21.6%

Retail/Institutional              5.78             5.72       0.9%

Ending Inventory                189.32           239.89     -21.1%

 

COFFEE 

General Comments Both markets closed lower Friday on some positioning before the end of the year, but the logistical problems keeping Coffee away from the US and Europe remain.  Futures were lower in New York for the week, but a little higher in London.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.541 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 200.46 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 223.00, 221.00, and 218.00 March, and resistance is at 230.00, 232.00 and 225.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 March, and resistance is at 2380, 2410, and 2440 March.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

130,624       46,445        90,015        3,186     10,998        570

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          35.6%         68.9%         2.4%      8.4%          0.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

146            38            46            7         9            8

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

50,404         2,014         5,682     2,204        3,297          15,721

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

38.6%          1.5%          4.4%      1.7%         2.5%           12.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

48            3             8         14           10              15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,412        2,327

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.9%         1.8%

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher on Friday, but lower for the week on reports of very beneficial and timely rains for dry central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the rains.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1830 and 1770 March.  Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1960 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 479.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

59,793        26,705        44,692        7,432      2,829         2,156

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          44.7%         74.7%         12.4%      4.7%          3.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

 

96          33            33            7          5            5

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

9,871         2,748         4,789     2,892        202             418

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

16.5%          4.6%          8.0%      4.8%         0.3%            0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

20            6             9         7            3               4

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

5,530        1,959

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

9.2%         3.3%

 

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed lower again Friday but higher for the week as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 4.675 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2620 March.  Support is at 2490, 2460, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1780 March.  Support is at 1700, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/28/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

306,597       188,841       217,209       40,495     8,366         8,187

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          61.6%         70.8%         13.2%      2.7%          2.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

132            48            36           13          6            8

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

25,200         35,474        8,285     8,520        494            25,473

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

8.2%          11.6%         2.7%      2.8%         0.2%            8.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

20            23            15        11           5               14

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

1,596        3,109

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

0.5%         1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322