About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying as the bull market remained alive.  Trends remain up on the charts.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 111.20 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.  USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 192,200 bales this year and 24,400 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 7,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11720 and 12010 March.  Support is at 11270, 10980, and 10940 March, with resistance of 11570, 11620 and 11830 March.

 

DJ On-Call Cotton – Dec 30 

As of Dec 24. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

Sales                     Purchases

Mar 22       51,771    54,033   -2,262      9,817    10,300    -483

May 22       21,528    21,662     -134      2,657     2,672     -15

Jul 22       47,310    46,488      822      5,461     5,437      24

Oct 22            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 22       13,784    13,242      542     14,559    14,511      48

Mar 23        2,980     2,848      132        780       750      30

May 23        1,250     1,250        0          0         0       0

Jul 23        1,302     1,302        0         44        44       0

Dec 23        2,440     2,220      220      5,333     5,113     220

Jul 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Dec 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Total       142,365   143,045     -680     39,091    39,267    -176

Open      Open   Change

Int       Int

Mar 22      119,166   119,302     -136

May 22       49,941    48,860    1,081

Jul 22       25,003    26,296   -1,293

Oct 22           38        39       -1

Dec 22       32,780    32,630      150

Mar 23        2,279     2,203       76

May 23          381       381        0

Jul 23          226       225        1

Dec 23        3,657     3,657        0

Jul 24            0         0        0

Dec 24            0         0        0

Total       233,471   233,593     -122

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher and prices are still in a trading range.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 130.00 March, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 March.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher yesterday on the logistical problems keeping Coffee away from the US and Europe..  The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.541 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 200.46 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 225.00, 223.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 232.00, 235.00 and 242.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 March, and resistance is at 2380, 2410, and 2440 March.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on reports of very beneficial and timely rains for dry central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the rains.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 183- and 1770 March.  Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1960 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 479.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be short covering as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.675 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2620 March.  Support is at 2490, 2460, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2600, 2620, and 2670 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1780 March.  Support is at 1700, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322