About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 31 

Source: CME Group

Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 03, 2022               36   Dec 21, 2021

ROUGH RICE    January    Jan 03, 2022              134   Dec 29, 2021

SOYBEAN       January    Jan 03, 2022              244   Dec 15, 2021

 

WHEAT 

General Comments Wheat markets closed lower after USDA announced another disappointing week of export sales.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average berlow normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 774, 773, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 845 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 807, 794, and 791 March, with resistance at 829, 850, and 871 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 979, 968, and 960 March, and resistance is at 1012, 1023, and 1037 March.

 

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was a little higher again yesterday.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet for the holidays.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling.  Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1469, 1450, and 1435 March and resistance is at 1488, 1491, and 1500 March.

 

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday and chart trends have turned sideways.  A wetter weather pattern in southern Brazil was a reason for the selling.  There has not been any demand news so far this week to support Corn but the weekly export sales report for Corn was stronger than trade expectations.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 590, 587, and 586 March, and resistance is at 607, 618, and 622 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 675, 650, and 646 March, and resistance is at 709, 725, and 736 March.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products traded lower as rains started to fall in southern Brazil  The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas..  The market was also preparing for First Notice Day today.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Argentina had been helping to feed the rally..  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has been very dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina.  Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers fall this week and a dry bias is expected due to La Nina conditions.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns.  The conditions are more stable now.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 140 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1414 and 1373 March.  Support is at 1320, 1309, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1363, 1384, and 1396 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 402.00, 396.00, and 389.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 418.00, and 421.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5410 and 5190 March.  Support is at 5510, 5430, and 5360 March, with resistance at 5630, 5780, and 5860 March;

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher again todayand closed the year on a strong note.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was lower along with Chicago and as the market prepared for First Notice Day on Monday.  January was by far the weakest month and gave back the strong gains from Wednesday.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00 and 1077.00 March.  Support is at 1011.00, 996.00, and 979.00 March, with resistance at 1033.00, 1040.00, and 1046.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed  Support is at 4600, 4530, and 4500 March, with resistance at 4800, 4860, and 4990 March.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rain and snow today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to above normal today and below normal over the weekend.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
             
             
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June  July  May  May  May
July  July  July  July
Augustg  July  July  July
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Dec 28 

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1013.70     4.00     Jan. 2022    dn  7.00

Basis: Thunder Bay  1068.50    50.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

Basis: Vancouver    1097.50    79.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 31 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1282.50      -05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1245.00      +02.50      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1187.50      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1112.50      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1042.50      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer       Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Jan           1285.00      -05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1247.50      +02.50      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1190.00      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1115.00      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1045.00      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1295.00      00.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1195.00      00.00      Unquoted    –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          5,180.00     -20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan            500.00      00.00      Unquoted    –        –

($1=MYR4.164)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 31 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 173,715 lots, or 10.21 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     5,987     5,987     5,933     5,935     5,999     5,969       -30     1,938     3,011

Mar-22     5,863     5,894     5,847     5,878     5,864     5,870         6   131,399   180,014

May-22     5,908     5,935     5,891     5,917     5,906     5,912         6    27,853    37,671

Jul-22     5,891     5,917     5,873     5,897     5,887     5,895         8    12,041    25,340

Sep-22     5,843     5,864     5,820     5,849     5,843     5,838        -5       352       764

Nov-22     5,750     5,763     5,700     5,701     5,761     5,715       -46       132       883

Corn

Turnover: 504,073 lots, or 1.34 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     2,671     2,671     2,596     2,600     2,607     2,605        -2     9,252      30,550

Mar-22     2,648     2,648     2,631     2,637     2,639     2,637        -2    70,570     254,506

May-22     2,683     2,687     2,665     2,672     2,681     2,673        -8   374,613   1,015,352

Jul-22     2,696     2,696     2,679     2,681     2,692     2,686        -6    27,875     112,682

Sep-22     2,679     2,679     2,665     2,671     2,675     2,670        -5     8,815      32,683

Nov-22     2,658     2,663     2,650     2,657     2,660     2,655        -5    12,948      18,399

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,113,736 lots, or 35.77 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,452     3,461     3,346     3,365     3,464     3,422       -42     9,542       3,200

Mar-22     3,361     3,363     3,311     3,331     3,366     3,335       -31   101,267     354,835

May-22     3,215     3,217     3,170     3,189     3,221     3,192       -29   875,469   1,388,687

Jul-22     3,218     3,218     3,170     3,190     3,215     3,190       -25    37,490     198,514

Aug-22     3,259     3,262     3,223     3,243     3,270     3,242       -28    40,602     104,938

Sep-22     3,259     3,264     3,220     3,242     3,269     3,241       -28    34,648     120,375

Nov-22     3,262     3,263     3,225     3,240     3,272     3,240       -32    14,642      43,695

Dec-22     3,212     3,212     3,175     3,186     3,222     3,191       -31        76         211

Palm Oil

Turnover: 757,376 lots, or 64.66 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,408     9,650     9,386     9,580     9,394     9,512       118     8,662     4,071

Feb-22     9,340     9,454     9,292     9,430     9,340     9,372        32    35,221    60,958

Mar-22     9,080     9,200     9,054     9,186     9,084     9,120        36    17,272    51,462

Apr-22     8,752     8,884     8,728     8,882     8,752     8,794        42     4,530    35,375

May-22     8,440     8,564     8,400     8,550     8,438     8,470        32   680,360   422,507

Jun-22     8,234     8,338     8,192     8,328     8,222     8,258        36     7,067    12,763

Jul-22     8,200     8,200     8,200     8,200     8,104     8,200        96         1       782

Aug-22     7,954     8,050     7,954     8,050     7,972     7,966        -6       565     4,955

Sep-22     7,800     7,888     7,782     7,888     7,804     7,830        26     3,021    11,694

Oct-22     7,770     7,816     7,744     7,816     7,750     7,764        14        19       375

Nov-22     7,700     7,788     7,692     7,756     7,664     7,750        86       193     2,747

Dec-22     7,606     7,680     7,606     7,680     7,578     7,606        28       465       465

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 736,380 lots, or 6.52 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,056     9,218     9,056     9,190     9,194     9,138       -56     4,497     1,427

Mar-22     9,068     9,150     9,040     9,138     9,068     9,094        26    47,520   127,964

May-22     8,816     8,898     8,784     8,880     8,838     8,840         2   649,902   521,073

Jul-22     8,658     8,724     8,622     8,710     8,672     8,666        -6    20,254    85,800

Aug-22     8,576     8,652     8,556     8,624     8,602     8,600        -2     3,749    34,523

Sep-22     8,468     8,556     8,468     8,524     8,506     8,508         2     6,631    17,820

Nov-22     8,398     8,468     8,378     8,428     8,422     8,418        -4     3,572    13,337

Dec-22     8,362     8,400     8,360     8,396     8,334     8,362        28       255       272

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322