Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 12/31/2021
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 03, 2022 36 Dec 21, 2021
ROUGH RICE January Jan 03, 2022 134 Dec 29, 2021
SOYBEAN January Jan 03, 2022 244 Dec 15, 2021
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower after USDA announced another disappointing week of export sales. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average berlow normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 774, 773, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 845 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 794, and 791 March, with resistance at 829, 850, and 871 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 979, 968, and 960 March, and resistance is at 1012, 1023, and 1037 March.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet for the holidays. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling. Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1469, 1450, and 1435 March and resistance is at 1488, 1491, and 1500 March.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and chart trends have turned sideways. A wetter weather pattern in southern Brazil was a reason for the selling. There has not been any demand news so far this week to support Corn but the weekly export sales report for Corn was stronger than trade expectations. Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied. Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 590, 587, and 586 March, and resistance is at 607, 618, and 622 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 675, 650, and 646 March, and resistance is at 709, 725, and 736 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products traded lower as rains started to fall in southern Brazil The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.. The market was also preparing for First Notice Day today. The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Argentina had been helping to feed the rally.. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has been very dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina. Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers fall this week and a dry bias is expected due to La Nina conditions. Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns. The conditions are more stable now. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 140 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1414 and 1373 March. Support is at 1320, 1309, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1363, 1384, and 1396 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 396.00, and 389.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 418.00, and 421.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5410 and 5190 March. Support is at 5510, 5430, and 5360 March, with resistance at 5630, 5780, and 5860 March;
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again todayand closed the year on a strong note. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was lower along with Chicago and as the market prepared for First Notice Day on Monday. January was by far the weakest month and gave back the strong gains from Wednesday. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00 and 1077.00 March. Support is at 1011.00, 996.00, and 979.00 March, with resistance at 1033.00, 1040.00, and 1046.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed Support is at 4600, 4530, and 4500 March, with resistance at 4800, 4860, and 4990 March.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow today and tomorrow. Temperatures should average near to above normal today and below normal over the weekend.
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Dec 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1013.70 4.00 Jan. 2022 dn 7.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1068.50 50.00 Mar. 2022 up 14.80
Basis: Vancouver 1097.50 79.00 Mar. 2022 up 14.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1282.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1245.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1187.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1112.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1042.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1285.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1247.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1190.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1115.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1045.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1295.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1195.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,180.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.164)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,715 lots, or 10.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 5,987 5,987 5,933 5,935 5,999 5,969 -30 1,938 3,011
Mar-22 5,863 5,894 5,847 5,878 5,864 5,870 6 131,399 180,014
May-22 5,908 5,935 5,891 5,917 5,906 5,912 6 27,853 37,671
Jul-22 5,891 5,917 5,873 5,897 5,887 5,895 8 12,041 25,340
Sep-22 5,843 5,864 5,820 5,849 5,843 5,838 -5 352 764
Nov-22 5,750 5,763 5,700 5,701 5,761 5,715 -46 132 883
Corn
Turnover: 504,073 lots, or 1.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,671 2,671 2,596 2,600 2,607 2,605 -2 9,252 30,550
Mar-22 2,648 2,648 2,631 2,637 2,639 2,637 -2 70,570 254,506
May-22 2,683 2,687 2,665 2,672 2,681 2,673 -8 374,613 1,015,352
Jul-22 2,696 2,696 2,679 2,681 2,692 2,686 -6 27,875 112,682
Sep-22 2,679 2,679 2,665 2,671 2,675 2,670 -5 8,815 32,683
Nov-22 2,658 2,663 2,650 2,657 2,660 2,655 -5 12,948 18,399
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,113,736 lots, or 35.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 3,452 3,461 3,346 3,365 3,464 3,422 -42 9,542 3,200
Mar-22 3,361 3,363 3,311 3,331 3,366 3,335 -31 101,267 354,835
May-22 3,215 3,217 3,170 3,189 3,221 3,192 -29 875,469 1,388,687
Jul-22 3,218 3,218 3,170 3,190 3,215 3,190 -25 37,490 198,514
Aug-22 3,259 3,262 3,223 3,243 3,270 3,242 -28 40,602 104,938
Sep-22 3,259 3,264 3,220 3,242 3,269 3,241 -28 34,648 120,375
Nov-22 3,262 3,263 3,225 3,240 3,272 3,240 -32 14,642 43,695
Dec-22 3,212 3,212 3,175 3,186 3,222 3,191 -31 76 211
Palm Oil
Turnover: 757,376 lots, or 64.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 9,408 9,650 9,386 9,580 9,394 9,512 118 8,662 4,071
Feb-22 9,340 9,454 9,292 9,430 9,340 9,372 32 35,221 60,958
Mar-22 9,080 9,200 9,054 9,186 9,084 9,120 36 17,272 51,462
Apr-22 8,752 8,884 8,728 8,882 8,752 8,794 42 4,530 35,375
May-22 8,440 8,564 8,400 8,550 8,438 8,470 32 680,360 422,507
Jun-22 8,234 8,338 8,192 8,328 8,222 8,258 36 7,067 12,763
Jul-22 8,200 8,200 8,200 8,200 8,104 8,200 96 1 782
Aug-22 7,954 8,050 7,954 8,050 7,972 7,966 -6 565 4,955
Sep-22 7,800 7,888 7,782 7,888 7,804 7,830 26 3,021 11,694
Oct-22 7,770 7,816 7,744 7,816 7,750 7,764 14 19 375
Nov-22 7,700 7,788 7,692 7,756 7,664 7,750 86 193 2,747
Dec-22 7,606 7,680 7,606 7,680 7,578 7,606 28 465 465
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 736,380 lots, or 6.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 9,056 9,218 9,056 9,190 9,194 9,138 -56 4,497 1,427
Mar-22 9,068 9,150 9,040 9,138 9,068 9,094 26 47,520 127,964
May-22 8,816 8,898 8,784 8,880 8,838 8,840 2 649,902 521,073
Jul-22 8,658 8,724 8,622 8,710 8,672 8,666 -6 20,254 85,800
Aug-22 8,576 8,652 8,556 8,624 8,602 8,600 -2 3,749 34,523
Sep-22 8,468 8,556 8,468 8,524 8,506 8,508 2 6,631 17,820
Nov-22 8,398 8,468 8,378 8,428 8,422 8,418 -4 3,572 13,337
Dec-22 8,362 8,400 8,360 8,396 8,334 8,362 28 255 272
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322