About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed much higher yesterday as the bull market remained alive and well.  Trends remain up on the charts.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 109.99 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 192,200 bales this year and 24,400 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 7,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11460, 11720, and 12010 March.  Support is at 10980, 10940, and 10770 March, with resistance of 11450, 11520 and 11620 March.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower again and prices are near the lower end of the trading range.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 January, with resistance at 144.00, 147.00, and 149.00 January.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher yesterday on the logistical problems keeping Coffee away from the US and Eutrope..  Damaging weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.541 million bags.  GCA stocks are now 5.843 million bags, from 5.976 million last month.  The ICO daily average price is now 200.36 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 225.00, 223.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 232.00, 235.00 and 242.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2600 January.   Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2400 January, and resistance is at 2490, 2520, and 2550 January.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher after starting the day lower as speculators and commercials adjusted positions before the end of the year.  Mixed trends are showing on the daily and weekly charts.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1840 March, and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 March. Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 494.00, 487.00, and 483.00 March, and resistance is at 509.00, 513.00, and 516.00 March.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher again yesterday on shat appeared to be short covering as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.661 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2620 March.  Support is at 2460, 2420, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2550, 2570, and 2500 March. Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.

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