About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 30 

    For the week ended Dec 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           199.5      0.0   15834.5   20563.1   4996.8     81.5

  hrw            87.3      0.0    6279.0    7100.8   2106.4     14.0

  srw            29.0      0.0    2311.4    1569.8    738.5     34.5

  hrs            63.1      0.0    4239.2    5777.1   1270.4      0.0

  white          20.1      0.0    2871.6    5524.9    845.4      0.0

  durum           0.0      0.0     133.4     590.3     36.2     33.0

corn           1246.5     60.0   40740.8   43195.5  27073.1   1512.0

soybeans        524.0     75.0   41384.1   54587.1  12448.4    216.0

soymeal          69.5      0.3    6094.9    5826.0   3181.3     35.9

soyoil            9.3      0.1     437.8     487.6    287.5      0.2

upland cotton   192.2     24.4   10450.1   11385.1   7518.2   1070.2

pima cotton       7.1      0.0     372.5     553.6    234.9      4.4

sorghum         182.9      0.0    5285.2    5088.2   3746.5      0.0

barley            0.0      0.0      30.5      30.6     19.0      0.0

rice             69.5      0.0    1590.9    1849.5    444.3      0.0

 

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher after trading lower early in the day.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see some scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 774, 773, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 845 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 811, 807, and 794 March, with resistance at 850, 871, and 885 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 991, 979, and 968 March, and resistance is at 1023, 1037, and 1047 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was higher again yesterday.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet for the holidays.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling.  Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1434, 1424, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1470, and 1476 January

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday and chart trends are still up.  There has not been any demand news so far this week to support Corn.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March.  Support is at 596, 590, and 587 March, and resistance is at 618, 622, and 628 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 701, 690, and 686 March, and resistance is at 725, 736, and 739 March.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall, Production Rise 

  By Paulo Trevisani

  U.S. ethanol inventories fell, frustrating analyst expectations of a weekly rise.

  In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol inventories for the week ended Friday totaled 20.68 million barrels, down 29,000 from 20.71 million barrels the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast stocks to rise by anywhere from 20,200 barrels to 20,605 barrels.

  Daily production, meanwhile, rose this week to 1.06 million barrels per day, 8,000 barrels per day higher than in the previous week. Analysts had expected production to be between 1.02 million barrels a day and 1.04 million barrels a

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were mixed, with January Soybeans and nearby months of Soybean Meal a little lower but the rest of the months and Soybean Oil a little higher.  The market was mostly preparing for First Notice Day on Friday.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Argentina is helping to feed the rally..  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina.  Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward.  It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 140 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1334, 1317, and 1304 January, and resistance is at 1376, 1384, and 1400 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives.   Support is at 402.00, 396.00, and 384.00 January, and resistance is at 422.00 424.00, and 430.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6070 and 6550 January.  Support is at 5620, 5590, and 5520 January, with resistance at 5770, 5800, and 57830 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was mixed to mostly higher today in range trading.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was sharply higher in January as the market prepared for Fist Notice Day on Monday.  January was by far the strongest month.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1192.00 January.  Support is at 1086.00,1072.00, and 1062.00 January, with resistance at 1100.00, 1112.00, and 1124.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed  Support is at 4680, 4650, and 4530 March, with resistance at 4800, 4860, and 4990 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rain and snow today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Dec 28 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1013.70     4.00     Jan. 2022    dn  7.00

Basis: Thunder Bay  1068.50    50.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

Basis: Vancouver    1097.50    79.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 30 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1287.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           1242.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           1182.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1107.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1037.50    -05.00      Unqouted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1290.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           1245.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           1185.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1110.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1040.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1295.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1195.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           5,200.00    00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           500.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.175)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 30 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 210,240 lots, or 12.35 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,019     6,019     5,951     5,980     6,019     5,999       -20     1,567     3,233

Mar-22     5,871     5,888     5,841     5,872     5,920     5,864       -56   159,626   187,861

May-22     5,915     5,928     5,885     5,920     5,957     5,906       -51    33,682    37,042

Jul-22     5,879     5,908     5,869     5,899     5,938     5,887       -51    14,791    24,572

Sep-22     5,851     5,873     5,820     5,846     5,900     5,843       -57       419       698

Nov-22     5,754     5,788     5,730     5,752     5,832     5,761       -71       155       793

Corn

Turnover: 617,137 lots, or 16.51 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     2,601     2,615     2,591     2,614     2,604     2,607         3     7,050      35,326

Mar-22     2,626     2,650     2,622     2,648     2,632     2,639         7    83,473     260,273

May-22     2,662     2,692     2,660     2,688     2,672     2,681         9   474,410   1,034,066

Jul-22     2,684     2,701     2,673     2,696     2,685     2,692         7    28,857     111,443

Sep-22     2,653     2,683     2,653     2,680     2,667     2,675         8     8,704      29,192

Nov-22     2,650     2,668     2,646     2,660     2,651     2,660         9    14,643      17,603

Soymeal

Turnover: 958,769 lots, or 31.06 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,456     3,485     3,433     3,462     3,466     3,464        -2    12,645      11,264

Mar-22     3,355     3,393     3,332     3,379     3,367     3,366        -1    72,790     358,569

May-22     3,202     3,247     3,191     3,234     3,229     3,221        -8   739,453   1,401,816

Jul-22     3,210     3,237     3,175     3,226     3,227     3,215       -12    41,704     197,772

Aug-22     3,268     3,289     3,247     3,275     3,287     3,270       -17    34,498     101,519

Sep-22     3,264     3,290     3,244     3,276     3,280     3,269       -11    41,204     120,995

Nov-22     3,265     3,291     3,247     3,277     3,285     3,272       -13    16,447      43,390

Dec-22     3,213     3,233     3,211     3,224     3,220     3,222         2        28         203

Palm Oil

Turnover: 733,329 lots, or 62.38 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,320     9,432     9,284     9,424     9,334     9,394        60    11,924     8,427

Feb-22     9,254     9,398     9,254     9,360     9,324     9,340        16    34,557    66,826

Mar-22     8,992     9,144     8,988     9,114     9,044     9,084        40    15,916    51,167

Apr-22     8,704     8,820     8,654     8,788     8,724     8,752        28     2,851    34,004

May-22     8,346     8,512     8,334     8,470     8,414     8,438        24   658,193   414,030

Jun-22     8,140     8,292     8,134     8,262     8,176     8,222        46     5,245    10,739

Jul-22     8,090     8,126     8,090     8,126     8,126     8,104       -22         3       782

Aug-22     7,910     7,976     7,910     7,956     7,960     7,972        12     1,074     5,459

Sep-22     7,736     7,854     7,702     7,830     7,786     7,804        18     2,481    11,322

Oct-22     7,684     7,784     7,684     7,784     7,776     7,750       -26        24       375

Nov-22     7,586     7,714     7,586     7,702     7,676     7,664       -12     1,053     2,802

Dec-22     7,558     7,620     7,504     7,620     7,532     7,578        46         8         9

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 700,527 lots, or 61.97 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,106     9,250     9,106     9,196     9,212     9,194       -18     3,624     4,439

Mar-22     8,998     9,120     8,988     9,100     9,056     9,068        12    49,253   126,998

May-22     8,770     8,894     8,758     8,852     8,832     8,838         6   613,300   515,879

Jul-22     8,618     8,722     8,596     8,678     8,686     8,672       -14    21,989    85,763

Aug-22     8,586     8,648     8,526     8,610     8,650     8,602       -48     3,773    34,267

Sep-22     8,440     8,550     8,438     8,520     8,506     8,506         0     5,606    17,544

Nov-22     8,408     8,464     8,358     8,422     8,420     8,422         2     2,974    13,334

Dec-22     8,322     8,398     8,322     8,398     8,350     8,334       -16         8        18

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322