About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed lower yesterday in correction trading.  Trends remain up on the charts.  Ideas are that demand is strong for US Cotton right now.  Chart patterns are now mixed.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 107.12 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 11460, 11720, and 12010 March.  Support is at 10980, 10940, and 10770 March, with resistance of 11270, 11350 and 11450 March.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher again and trends remain up on the charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 and 158.00 January.  Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 January, with resistance at 144.00, 147.00, and 149.00 January.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower yesterday as some selling developed before the end of the year.  Damaging weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.541 million bags.  GCA stocks are now 5.843 million bags, from 5.976 million last month.  The ICO daily average price is now 197.72 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 223.00, 221.00, and 218.00 March, and resistance is at 232.00, 235.00 and 242.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2600 January.   Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2350 January, and resistance is at 2490, 2520, and 2550 January[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on worries about ethanol demand.  Mixed trends are showing on the daily and weekly charts.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1840 March, and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 494.00, 487.00, and 483.00 March, and resistance is at 509.00, 513.00, and 516.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher yesterday as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 4.688 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2420, 2380, and 2330 March, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1740 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322