About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed lower as the export demand has not come through this year.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see some scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 779, 773, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 845 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 814, 807, and 794 March, with resistance at 850, 871, and 885 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 991, 979, and 968 March, and resistance is at 1009, 1023, and 1037 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was higher again yesterday as speculators bought again.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet for the holidays.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year.  Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with objectives of 1457 January.  Support is at 1424, 1410, and 1400 January and resistance is at 1452, 1464, and 1470 January.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed lower again yesterday but chart trends are still up.  There has not been any demand news so far this week to support Corn.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption.  Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward.  Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall.  That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low.  It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March.  Support is at 596, 590, and 587 March, and resistance is at 618, 622, and 628 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 701, 690, and 686 March, and resistance is at 725, 736, and 739 March.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall, Production Rise 

  By Paulo Trevisani

  U.S. ethanol inventories fell, frustrating analyst expectations of a weekly rise.

  In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol inventories for the week ended Friday totaled 20.68 million barrels, down 29,000 from 20.71 million barrels the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast stocks to rise by anywhere from 20,200 barrels to 20,605 barrels.

  Daily production, meanwhile, rose this week to 1.06 million barrels per day, 8,000 barrels per day higher than in the previous week. Analysts had expected production to be between 1.02 million barrels a day and 1.04 million barrels a

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and both of the products closed lower yesterday in correction trading and the trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Argentina is helping to feed the rally..  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina.  Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward.  It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 140 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1334, 1317, and 1304 January, and resistance is at 1384, 1400, and 1412 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives.   Support is at 402.00, 396.00, and 384.00 January, and resistance is at 424.00 430.00, and 436.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6070 and 6550 January.  Support is at 5590, 5520, and 5420 January, with resistance at 5770, 5800, and 57830 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was lower today in range trading.  India has lowered its import taxes on Palm Oil this week.  Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  There have also been reports of flooding in Malaysian palm fields.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was sharply higher as futures caught up to Chicago.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1000.00, 992.00, and 976.00 January, with resistance at 1024.00, 1031.00, and 1038.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed  Support is at 4680, 4650, and 4530 March, with resistance at 4800, 4860, and 4990 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rain and snow today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Dec 28 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1013.70     4.00     Jan. 2022    dn  7.00

Basis: Thunder Bay  1068.50    50.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

Basis: Vancouver    1097.50    79.00     Mar. 2022    up 14.80

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 29 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1292.50    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           1242.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           1182.50    -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1107.50    -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1042.50    -35.00      Unqouted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1295.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           1245.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           1185.00    -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1110.00    -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1045.00    -35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           1300.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1200.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           5,200.00   -50.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           502.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.1815)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 29 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 301,090 lots, or 17.85 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,059     6,079     5,950     6,004     6,075     6,019       -56     3,256     3,517

Mar-22     6,025     6,028     5,867     5,875     6,011     5,920       -91   234,255   168,108

May-22     6,033     6,048     5,911     5,913     6,032     5,957       -75    44,333    32,777

Jul-22     6,030     6,030     5,889     5,889     6,007     5,938       -69    18,961    23,787

Sep-22     5,966     5,966     5,852     5,864     5,962     5,900       -62       236       626

Nov-22     5,873     5,873     5,790     5,801     5,902     5,832       -70        49       713

Corn

Turnover: 719,852 lots, or 19.19 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     2,613     2,613     2,594     2,595     2,613     2,604        -9    17,186      38,164

Mar-22     2,640     2,642     2,625     2,625     2,646     2,632       -14   103,987     260,506

May-22     2,683     2,684     2,663     2,664     2,686     2,672       -14   546,634   1,029,554

Jul-22     2,690     2,695     2,676     2,676     2,699     2,685       -14    30,562     111,348

Sep-22     2,675     2,676     2,661     2,661     2,677     2,667       -10     8,019      28,646

Nov-22     2,652     2,659     2,645     2,649     2,662     2,651       -11    13,464      16,614

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,125,014 lots, or 36.54 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,478     3,478     3,448     3,464     3,476     3,466       -10    13,216      22,479

Mar-22     3,406     3,406     3,342     3,368     3,404     3,367       -37    86,242     362,186

May-22     3,259     3,260     3,205     3,226     3,259     3,229       -30   869,507   1,383,950

Jul-22     3,258     3,260     3,202     3,218     3,252     3,227       -25    58,771     197,459

Aug-22     3,314     3,314     3,262     3,278     3,314     3,287       -27    40,380      96,802

Sep-22     3,310     3,310     3,256     3,272     3,307     3,280       -27    37,632     116,080

Nov-22     3,308     3,309     3,261     3,274     3,306     3,285       -21    19,237      41,373

Dec-22     3,246     3,246     3,201     3,215     3,246     3,220       -26        29         202

Palm Oil

Turnover: 692,661 lots, or 58.66 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,434     9,454     9,276     9,294     9,334     9,334         0     7,999    16,976

Feb-22     9,416     9,452     9,216     9,254     9,340     9,324       -16    26,295    75,517

Mar-22     9,146     9,198     8,954     8,996     9,082     9,044       -38    11,430    51,443

Apr-22     8,836     8,856     8,618     8,654     8,724     8,724         0     3,340    33,503

May-22     8,536     8,552     8,296     8,330     8,400     8,414        14   634,816   394,576

Jun-22     8,300     8,314     8,090     8,106     8,180     8,176        -4     5,943     9,497

Jul-22     8,194     8,252     8,034     8,036     8,066     8,126        60        15       783

Aug-22     7,968     8,520     7,874     7,874     7,948     7,960        12       286     4,393

Sep-22     7,888     7,914     7,702     7,714     7,812     7,786       -26     1,945    11,218

Oct-22     7,850     7,850     7,736     7,760     7,774     7,776         2         9       371

Nov-22     7,790     7,790     7,496     7,496     7,624     7,676        52       582     1,816

Dec-22     7,532     7,532     7,532     7,532     7,578     7,532       -46         1        11

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 722,214 lots, or 63.82 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,316     9,342     9,118     9,134     9,224     9,212       -12     5,308     6,844

Mar-22     9,168     9,180     8,976     8,994     9,050     9,056         6    37,107   131,521

May-22     8,938     8,950     8,742     8,764     8,832     8,832         0   643,369   517,031

Jul-22     8,734     8,792     8,582     8,608     8,664     8,686        22    21,422    84,850

Aug-22     8,700     8,708     8,520     8,538     8,600     8,650        50     5,690    34,162

Sep-22     8,600     8,626     8,430     8,450     8,524     8,506       -18     6,619    17,310

Nov-22     8,520     8,532     8,340     8,358     8,430     8,420       -10     2,694    13,415

Dec-22     8,460     8,460     8,226     8,226     8,402     8,350       -52         5        13

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322