Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 12/29/2021
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower as the export demand has not come through this year. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see some scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 779, 773, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 845 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 814, 807, and 794 March, with resistance at 850, 871, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 991, 979, and 968 March, and resistance is at 1009, 1023, and 1037 March.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday as speculators bought again. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet for the holidays. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part or the middle of next month. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1457 January. Support is at 1424, 1410, and 1400 January and resistance is at 1452, 1464, and 1470 January.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday but chart trends are still up. There has not been any demand news so far this week to support Corn. Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied. Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been real strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March. Support is at 596, 590, and 587 March, and resistance is at 618, 622, and 628 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 701, 690, and 686 March, and resistance is at 725, 736, and 739 March.
DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall, Production Rise
By Paulo Trevisani
U.S. ethanol inventories fell, frustrating analyst expectations of a weekly rise.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol inventories for the week ended Friday totaled 20.68 million barrels, down 29,000 from 20.71 million barrels the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast stocks to rise by anywhere from 20,200 barrels to 20,605 barrels.
Daily production, meanwhile, rose this week to 1.06 million barrels per day, 8,000 barrels per day higher than in the previous week. Analysts had expected production to be between 1.02 million barrels a day and 1.04 million barrels a
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both of the products closed lower yesterday in correction trading and the trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts. The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Argentina is helping to feed the rally.. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina. Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward. It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 140 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1334, 1317, and 1304 January, and resistance is at 1384, 1400, and 1412 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 402.00, 396.00, and 384.00 January, and resistance is at 424.00 430.00, and 436.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6070 and 6550 January. Support is at 5590, 5520, and 5420 January, with resistance at 5770, 5800, and 57830 January;
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in range trading. India has lowered its import taxes on Palm Oil this week. Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. There have also been reports of flooding in Malaysian palm fields. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was sharply higher as futures caught up to Chicago. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1000.00, 992.00, and 976.00 January, with resistance at 1024.00, 1031.00, and 1038.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed Support is at 4680, 4650, and 4530 March, with resistance at 4800, 4860, and 4990 March.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow today and tomorrow. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
June
July
May
May
May
July
July
July
July
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July
July
July
[JS1]
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Dec 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1013.70 4.00 Jan. 2022 dn 7.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1068.50 50.00 Mar. 2022 up 14.80
Basis: Vancouver 1097.50 79.00 Mar. 2022 up 14.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1292.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1242.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1182.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1107.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1042.50 -35.00 Unqouted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1295.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1245.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1185.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1110.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1045.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1300.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1200.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,200.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 502.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1815)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 301,090 lots, or 17.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,059 6,079 5,950 6,004 6,075 6,019 -56 3,256 3,517
Mar-22 6,025 6,028 5,867 5,875 6,011 5,920 -91 234,255 168,108
May-22 6,033 6,048 5,911 5,913 6,032 5,957 -75 44,333 32,777
Jul-22 6,030 6,030 5,889 5,889 6,007 5,938 -69 18,961 23,787
Sep-22 5,966 5,966 5,852 5,864 5,962 5,900 -62 236 626
Nov-22 5,873 5,873 5,790 5,801 5,902 5,832 -70 49 713
Corn
Turnover: 719,852 lots, or 19.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,613 2,613 2,594 2,595 2,613 2,604 -9 17,186 38,164
Mar-22 2,640 2,642 2,625 2,625 2,646 2,632 -14 103,987 260,506
May-22 2,683 2,684 2,663 2,664 2,686 2,672 -14 546,634 1,029,554
Jul-22 2,690 2,695 2,676 2,676 2,699 2,685 -14 30,562 111,348
Sep-22 2,675 2,676 2,661 2,661 2,677 2,667 -10 8,019 28,646
Nov-22 2,652 2,659 2,645 2,649 2,662 2,651 -11 13,464 16,614
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,125,014 lots, or 36.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 3,478 3,478 3,448 3,464 3,476 3,466 -10 13,216 22,479
Mar-22 3,406 3,406 3,342 3,368 3,404 3,367 -37 86,242 362,186
May-22 3,259 3,260 3,205 3,226 3,259 3,229 -30 869,507 1,383,950
Jul-22 3,258 3,260 3,202 3,218 3,252 3,227 -25 58,771 197,459
Aug-22 3,314 3,314 3,262 3,278 3,314 3,287 -27 40,380 96,802
Sep-22 3,310 3,310 3,256 3,272 3,307 3,280 -27 37,632 116,080
Nov-22 3,308 3,309 3,261 3,274 3,306 3,285 -21 19,237 41,373
Dec-22 3,246 3,246 3,201 3,215 3,246 3,220 -26 29 202
Palm Oil
Turnover: 692,661 lots, or 58.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 9,434 9,454 9,276 9,294 9,334 9,334 0 7,999 16,976
Feb-22 9,416 9,452 9,216 9,254 9,340 9,324 -16 26,295 75,517
Mar-22 9,146 9,198 8,954 8,996 9,082 9,044 -38 11,430 51,443
Apr-22 8,836 8,856 8,618 8,654 8,724 8,724 0 3,340 33,503
May-22 8,536 8,552 8,296 8,330 8,400 8,414 14 634,816 394,576
Jun-22 8,300 8,314 8,090 8,106 8,180 8,176 -4 5,943 9,497
Jul-22 8,194 8,252 8,034 8,036 8,066 8,126 60 15 783
Aug-22 7,968 8,520 7,874 7,874 7,948 7,960 12 286 4,393
Sep-22 7,888 7,914 7,702 7,714 7,812 7,786 -26 1,945 11,218
Oct-22 7,850 7,850 7,736 7,760 7,774 7,776 2 9 371
Nov-22 7,790 7,790 7,496 7,496 7,624 7,676 52 582 1,816
Dec-22 7,532 7,532 7,532 7,532 7,578 7,532 -46 1 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 722,214 lots, or 63.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 9,316 9,342 9,118 9,134 9,224 9,212 -12 5,308 6,844
Mar-22 9,168 9,180 8,976 8,994 9,050 9,056 6 37,107 131,521
May-22 8,938 8,950 8,742 8,764 8,832 8,832 0 643,369 517,031
Jul-22 8,734 8,792 8,582 8,608 8,664 8,686 22 21,422 84,850
Aug-22 8,700 8,708 8,520 8,538 8,600 8,650 50 5,690 34,162
Sep-22 8,600 8,626 8,430 8,450 8,524 8,506 -18 6,619 17,310
Nov-22 8,520 8,532 8,340 8,358 8,430 8,420 -10 2,694 13,415
Dec-22 8,460 8,460 8,226 8,226 8,402 8,350 -52 5 13
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322