About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed a little higher again Friday and a little higher for the week on ideas that the economy will be OK even with no Biden economic plan.  Ideas are that demand is strong for US Cotton right now.  Chart patterns are now mixed.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 105.90 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 10540, 10430, and 10350 March, with resistance of 10980, 11080 and 11350 March.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher again last week and trends remain up on the charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 150.00 and 158.00 January.  Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 135.00 January, with resistance at 149.00, 152.00, and 155.00 January.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York closed lower last week and London closed higher as the market fundamentals remain important.  Damaging weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  The crop there could be damaged if a storm hits the Coffee while it is drying on the patios this week and showers are in the forecast to at least delay maturity and drying.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.548 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 202.08 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 229.00, 223.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 235.00, 242.00 and 248.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2600 January.   Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2350 January, and resistance is at 2490, 2520, and 2550 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/21/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  132,307       50,133        90,397        3,083     11,566        911

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          37.9%         68.3%         2.3%      8.7%          0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   148            39            46            6        11            11

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  48,264         2,074         5,951     2,692        3,966          15,690

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  36.5%          1.6%          4.5%      2.0%         3.0%           11.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    46            3             10        15           11              17

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,583        1,752

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  4.2%         1.3%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher again last week on the back of the rallies in the petroleum and financial markets.  Mixed trends are showing on the daily and weekly charts.  Weaker production ideas in Brazil were seen again.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents.  Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads.  The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1850 March, and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 494.00, 487.00, and 483.00 March, and resistance is at 509.00, 513.00, and 516.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/21/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  59,050        26,024        43,107        7,409      2,829         1,743

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          44.1%         73.0%         12.5%      4.8%          3.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   102            33            33            7          4            4

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  10,756         3,350         4,801     2,805        283             660

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  18.2%          5.7%          8.1%      4.7%         0.5%            1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    22            9             10        8            3               6

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  4,852        2,277

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.2%         3.9%

COCOA              

General Comments New York and London closed lower last week ass the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 83,000 tons, down 6.4% from last year.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.699 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2420, 2380, and 2330 March, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1740 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 12/21/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  302,093       186,375       212,925       39,237     8,392         7,840

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          61.7%         70.5%         13.0%      2.8%          2.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   133            48            36           13          6            9

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  25,389         36,157        7,478     8,639        501            25,556

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   8.4%          12.0%         2.5%      2.9%         0.2%            8.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    20            24            16        12           5               15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,579        3,244

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.5%         1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322