About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher last week on weather concerns as the big wind storm moved through the Great Plains late last week and as warm and dry weather is in the forecast for the Great Plains.  Some damage reports have been heard and the wind blew at hurricane force levels and a lot of the soil was blown around and probably shredded the Wheat.  The losses could become significant.  Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas for next year.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 824 and 869 March.  Support is at 795, 788, and 779 March, with resistance at 824, 845, and 847 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 884 March.  Support is at 830, 814, and 807 March, with resistance at 885, 892, and 898 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1047, 1056, and 1058 March.

RICE:

General Comments:  Rice was higher last week as the speculative selling apparently came to an end.  Futures have now moved lower for the last several weeks after making new highs for the move.  Futures and cash market trading have gone quiet for the holidays.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year.  Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part of the middle of next month.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1457 January.  Support is at 1396, 1379, and 1370 January and resistance is at 1423, 1444, and 1451 January.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed higher again last week and chart trends have turned up.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling.  Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption.  Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward.  Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall.  That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low.  It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 269,240 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 622 and 647 March.  Support is at 596, 590, and 587 March, and resistance is at 612, 616, and 622 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 686, 676, and 650 March, and resistance is at 723, 736, and 739 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and both of the products closed higher last week and the trends are turning up on the daily and weekly charts.  Soybean Oil trends are sideways.  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina.  Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward.  It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 142 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1344, 1348, and 1354 January.  Support is at 1317, 12304, and 1296 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1344, and 1370 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives.   Support is at 3896.00, 384.00, and 3780.00 January, and resistance is at 406.00 412.00, and 418.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5420, 5350, and 5230 January, with resistance at 5600, 5700, and 5780 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was higher last week.  India has lowered its import taxes on Palm Oil this week.  Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  There have also been reports of flooding in Malaysian palm fields.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was mixed to higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil.  Nearby months were lower on some speculative selling late last week.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. 

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1000.00, 992.00, and 976.00 January, with resistance at 1025.00, 1031.00, and 1038.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed  Support is at 4420, 4300, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4530, 4580, and 4730 March.

DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Rose 16.9%, SGS Says

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-25 period are estimated to have risen 16.9% from the previous month to 1,562,035 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Monday.

  The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                           December 1-25        November 1-25

   RBD Palm Olein                456,732              317,108

   RBD Palm Oil                  108,513               47,603

   RBD Palm Stearin              111,105              122,941

   Crude Palm Oil                420,770              427,516

   Total*                      1,562,035            1,336,125

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

  SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

June

July

May

May

May

July

July

July

July

Augustg

July

July

July

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 22

    WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Dec. 22, 2021.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1022.90     0.30    Jan 22   up 10.70

Basis: Thunder Bay 1060.70    50.00    Mar 22   dn  2.20

Basis: Vancouver   1089.70    79.00    Mar 22   dn  2.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 27

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1272.50      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1207.50      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1157.50      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1092.50      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1042.50      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Jan           1275.00      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1210.00      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1160.00      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1095.00      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1045.00      -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1280.00     -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1180.00     -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          5,120.00     +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan            498.00      -02.00      Unquoted    –        –

($1=MYR4.1813)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 27

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 289,902 lots, or 17.22 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,070     6,104     6,032     6,060     6,070     6,065        -5     2,439     5,705

Mar-22     5,882     5,997     5,832     5,975     5,905     5,933        28   234,057   150,299

May-22     5,914     6,024     5,880     5,997     5,949     5,972        23    37,018    30,428

Jul-22     5,915     6,001     5,866     5,981     5,932     5,953        21    16,165    20,347

Sep-22     5,874     5,966     5,847     5,945     5,902     5,924        22       211       622

Nov-22     5,865     5,909     5,837     5,885     5,876     5,885         9        12       666

Corn

Turnover: 596,764 lots, or 16.03 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     2,626     2,636     2,620     2,625     2,630     2,625        -5    31,042    51,285

Mar-22     2,660     2,673     2,651     2,655     2,660     2,659        -1    81,030   250,779

May-22     2,690     2,713     2,682     2,695     2,697     2,695        -2   435,777   980,826

Jul-22     2,705     2,720     2,693     2,706     2,704     2,704         0    30,232   105,922

Sep-22     2,686     2,690     2,671     2,681     2,682     2,681        -1     6,860    26,966

Nov-22     2,658     2,671     2,651     2,663     2,661     2,661         0    11,823    15,115

Soymeal

Turnover: 977,685 lots, or 31.98 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,475     3,505     3,460     3,471     3,475     3,473        -2    49,485      38,886

Mar-22     3,410     3,414     3,356     3,375     3,384     3,377        -7   106,998     359,199

May-22     3,265     3,268     3,226     3,230     3,248     3,241        -7   726,395   1,371,882

Jul-22     3,261     3,264     3,222     3,227     3,244     3,239        -5    41,249     193,616

Aug-22     3,322     3,323     3,285     3,287     3,305     3,301        -4    18,116      91,325

Sep-22     3,312     3,314     3,277     3,281     3,298     3,293        -5    25,979     109,558

Nov-22     3,307     3,309     3,278     3,285     3,296     3,290        -6     9,315      38,344

Dec-22     3,252     3,274     3,213     3,240     3,267     3,252       -15       148         154

Palm Oil

Turnover: 633,139 lots, or 53.50 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,390     9,402     9,270     9,286     9,296     9,330        34    25,960    30,776

Feb-22     9,378     9,412     9,270     9,296     9,256     9,332        76    25,147    82,966

Mar-22     9,020     9,140     8,990     9,026     8,912     9,030       118    11,695    48,352

Apr-22     8,696     8,732     8,634     8,666     8,536     8,672       136     4,002    33,285

May-22     8,390     8,416     8,322     8,350     8,228     8,362       134   555,609   402,269

Jun-22     8,202     8,218     8,110     8,140     8,030     8,156       126     7,228     8,556

Jul-22     8,046     8,100     8,012     8,012     7,980     8,080       100        14       782

Aug-22     7,900     7,916     7,846     7,872     7,876     7,892        16       134     4,801

Sep-22     7,750     7,816     7,716     7,748     7,644     7,760       116     3,134    10,909

Oct-22     7,672     7,740     7,672     7,740     7,610     7,700        90        21       385

Nov-22     7,610     7,668     7,530     7,598     7,462     7,596       134       192     2,242

Dec-22     7,524     7,568     7,524     7,568     7,458     7,546        88         3         9

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 627,726 lots, or 55.23 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,262     9,280     9,182     9,208     9,150     9,226        76    24,899    15,500

Mar-22     9,040     9,070     8,996     9,014     8,884     9,024       140    29,298   133,644

May-22     8,800     8,826     8,738     8,776     8,652     8,780       128   543,431   517,194

Jul-22     8,630     8,670     8,590     8,616     8,516     8,620       104    17,721    84,177

Aug-22     8,504     8,614     8,504     8,550     8,434     8,550       116     3,990    37,352

Sep-22     8,444     8,544     8,434     8,466     8,360     8,478       118     5,650    17,239

Nov-22     8,394     8,484     8,368     8,400     8,288     8,410       122     2,731    12,824

Dec-22     8,358     8,400     8,358     8,400     8,292     8,370        78         6        13

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322