About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Thursday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 99.8 98.6- 103.1
Placed in Nov 103.4 96.4- 106.7
Marketed in Nov 104.4 104.3- 105.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.6 102.8 104.3
Allendale Inc. 98.6 96.4 104.3
HedgersEdge 100.1 106.7 104.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.7 103.9 104.4
NFC Markets 99.7 103.6 104.4
Texas A&M Extension 99.8 104.5 104.5
U.S. Commodities 103.1 102.0 105.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat closed higher yesterday on weather concerns as the big wind storm moved through the Great Plains late last week and as warm and dry weather is in the forecast for the Great Plains. Some damage reports have been heard and the wind blew at hurricane force levels and a lot of the soil was blown around and probably shredded the Wheat. The losses could become significant. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production although Russian production was rated as stronger in the most recent USDA WASDE report. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 824 and 869 March. Support is at 770, 7573, and 758 March, with resistance at 813, 824, and 845 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 849 and 884 March. Support is at 814, 807, and 794 March, with resistance at 850, 853, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1031, 1047, and 1056 March.

RICE:
General Comments: : Rice was a little lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative trading. It was a quiet session. Futures have now moved lower for the last several weeks after making new highs for the move. Futures and cash market trading have gone quiet for the holidays. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part of the middle of next month. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1359, 1350, and 1339 January and resistance is at 1379, 1390, and 1400 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.31 9.11 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.29 9.14 0.00
Brokens 9.08 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday and appeared to rally on the backs of Soybeans and Wheat. Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March. Support is at 587, 582, and 576 March, and resistance is at 599, 605, and 612 March. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 650, 646, and 635 March, and resistance is at 690, 705, and 723 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both of the products closed higher yesterday and the trends are turning up on the daily charts. Soybean Oil trends are sideways on the daily charts. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina. Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward. It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 142 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1344, 1348, and 1354 January. Support is at 1289, 1276, and 1266 January, and resistance is at 1317, 1340, and 1344 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 384.00, 380.00, and 376.00 January, and resistance is at 400.00 406.00, and 412.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5230, 5200, and 5100 January, with resistance at 5420, 5530, and 5600 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today. India has lowered its import taxes on Palm Oil this week. Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. There have also been reports of flooding in Malaysian palm fields. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00, 1056.00, and 1058.00 January. Support is at 1014.00, 1000.00, and 992.00 January, with resistance at 1038.00, 1044.00, and 1050.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed Support is at 4300, 4220, and 4160 March, with resistance at 4530, 4580, and 4730 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 20
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 20, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,012.70 -1.60 Jan 22 up 17.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,052.20 50.00 Mar 22 dn 0.50
Basis: Vancouver 1,081.20 79.00 Mar 22 dn 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1232.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1167.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1122.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1052.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1235.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1170.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1125.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1015.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1245.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1145.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,950.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.212)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 183,189 lots, or 10.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,095 6,120 6,048 6,077 6,106 6,091 -15 2,555 8,391
Mar-22 5,938 5,976 5,907 5,918 5,971 5,934 -37 142,198 148,835
May-22 5,972 6,000 5,930 5,952 5,999 5,965 -34 23,306 27,920
Jul-22 5,949 5,982 5,920 5,934 5,977 5,945 -32 15,013 20,363
Sep-22 5,912 5,940 5,902 5,907 5,941 5,918 -23 88 532
Nov-22 5,871 5,877 5,846 5,871 5,879 5,865 -14 29 675
Corn
Turnover: 707,595 lots, or 19.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,648 2,648 2,630 2,630 2,649 2,636 -13 49,829 83,266
Mar-22 2,666 2,667 2,653 2,658 2,672 2,660 -12 81,547 245,835
May-22 2,703 2,706 2,686 2,688 2,714 2,694 -20 527,979 1,010,632
Jul-22 2,711 2,714 2,695 2,696 2,718 2,702 -16 31,187 99,829
Sep-22 2,698 2,698 2,674 2,676 2,695 2,680 -15 5,509 27,588
Nov-22 2,666 2,666 2,647 2,647 2,666 2,654 -12 11,544 14,084
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,128,599 lots, or 36.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 3,321 3,379 3,317 3,366 3,335 3,347 12 86,669 126,855
Mar-22 3,227 3,293 3,219 3,274 3,241 3,263 22 96,612 343,167
May-22 3,147 3,198 3,140 3,179 3,164 3,172 8 827,218 1,308,354
Jul-22 3,151 3,197 3,138 3,178 3,159 3,168 9 39,993 185,385
Aug-22 3,209 3,260 3,204 3,238 3,224 3,235 11 35,892 88,117
Sep-22 3,200 3,253 3,199 3,235 3,218 3,234 16 26,337 101,739
Nov-22 3,226 3,263 3,209 3,238 3,227 3,239 12 15,861 38,109
Dec-22 3,199 3,239 3,193 3,200 3,211 3,210 -1 17 57
Palm Oil
Turnover: 665,375 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 9,202 9,312 9,184 9,260 9,100 9,250 150 43,618 56,678
Feb-22 8,890 9,070 8,890 9,040 8,812 8,998 186 21,404 89,568
Mar-22 8,550 8,678 8,520 8,654 8,442 8,608 166 8,775 43,953
Apr-22 8,160 8,356 8,160 8,326 8,134 8,274 140 3,783 33,828
May-22 7,964 8,068 7,916 8,026 7,844 7,994 150 579,000 370,764
Jun-22 7,706 7,890 7,706 7,848 7,672 7,822 150 5,439 8,958
Jul-22 7,762 7,792 7,762 7,788 7,602 7,782 180 13 802
Aug-22 7,570 7,668 7,570 7,638 7,558 7,644 86 72 3,504
Sep-22 7,488 7,552 7,422 7,516 7,422 7,506 84 3,010 8,324
Oct-22 7,478 7,496 7,466 7,480 7,372 7,474 102 10 410
Nov-22 7,342 7,488 7,342 7,450 7,342 7,428 86 238 1,739
Dec-22 7,450 7,450 7,390 7,390 7,408 7,442 34 13 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 703,276 lots, or 59.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 8,888 9,034 8,876 8,958 8,796 8,958 162 65,983 47,309
Mar-22 8,610 8,742 8,588 8,714 8,490 8,670 180 38,671 133,861
May-22 8,396 8,494 8,374 8,470 8,310 8,440 130 567,313 461,309
Jul-22 8,280 8,386 8,280 8,376 8,222 8,330 108 19,392 83,329
Aug-22 8,172 8,324 8,172 8,314 8,166 8,272 106 4,641 37,153
Sep-22 8,154 8,248 8,144 8,240 8,106 8,208 102 4,589 14,647
Nov-22 8,042 8,174 8,042 8,156 8,026 8,124 98 2,683 12,658
Dec-22 8,070 8,164 8,070 8,164 8,004 8,106 102 4 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322