
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 12/14/2021
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 15, 2021 11 Dec 13, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec 15, 2021 10 Dec 13, 2021
WHEAT December Dec 15, 2021 39 Dec 03, 2021
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 13
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Dec 13, 2021 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 09, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/09/2021 12/02/2021 12/10/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 73 0 10,010 17,751
CORN 810,395 774,958 924,246 10,205,976 12,092,888
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 124 437
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 998 300 2,593
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 119,720 169,626 199,093 1,233,684 1,728,068
SOYBEANS 1,723,970 2,334,121 2,458,271 25,447,765 32,325,343
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 432 0
WHEAT 245,090 246,257 263,440 11,393,958 13,739,984
Total 2,899,175 3,525,035 3,846,048 48,292,249 59,907,064
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher yesterday as geopolitical tensions filled the air. Trends are still sideways in all three markets. The market is talking about the buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border and fears a war will break out. A war between these two countries could have severe repercussions for world Wheat trade as both are big producers and exporters. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead. These international moves should increase demand for US Wheat but this has not really happened yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 751 and 711 March. Support is at 768, 758, and 751 March, with resistance at 794, 798, and 813 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 777, 769, and 749 March. Support is at 788, 779, and 770 March, with resistance at 822, 834, and 850 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1025, 1047, and 1056 March.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. USDA made only small changes to supply and demand in the latest WASDE estimates that were released last week. Small changes were noted in the world estimates as well. Traders were preparing for the next round of WASDE reports that will be issued later today. Futures have held some important support areas on the daily and weekly charts but act weak. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1376 and 1357 January. Support is at 1368, 1350, and 1339 January and resistance is at 1400, 1410, and 1423 January.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday in sympathy with Soybeans. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and Mexico was a huge buyer yesterday. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 582, 576, and 572 March, and resistance is at 590, 594, and 597 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 696, 690, and 673 March, and resistance is at 723, 736, and 739 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday and the trends are still mixed on the daily charts. USDA made no changes to its US supply and demand and ending stocks estimates. It also made no changes to South American production estimates. Soybean Oil closed lower despite the price action in competing oils and Crude Oil on news that the Biden administration had reduced renewable fuels blending requirements for refiners. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina. Rains were reported in Argentina over the weekend and are forecast for southern Brazil this week so any weather related concerns have been put aside for now. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1214, and 1208 January, and resistance is at 12759, 1276, and 1281 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 370.00, 374.00, and 387.00 January. Support is at 360.00, 353.00, and 347.00 January, and resistance is at 370.00 376.00, and 381.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5200 January. Support is at 5300, 5240, and 5180 January, with resistance at 55460, 5500, and 5700 January;
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today. Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand. Futures are now at the lower end of the range. Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered in Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was a little higher on tight supplies and a weaker Canadian Dollar and despite price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well. Soybean Oil was also lower as the Biden administration has cut some of the mandates for bio fuels blending in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 997.00, 976.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1020.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4730, 45680, and 4540 February, with resistance at 4850, 5000, and 5030 February.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
June
July
May
May
May
July
July
July
July
Augustg
July
July
July
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 13
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 13, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1005.60 0.00 Jan 22 dn 2.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1059.80 50.00 Jan 22 up 4.20
Basis: Vancouver 1084.80 75.00 Jan 22 up 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1282.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1167.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1052.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1285.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1170.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1015.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1295.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1190.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,150.00 -120.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 502.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.23)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 171,957 lots, or 10.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,066 6,092 6,026 6,037 6,084 6,065 -19 20,505 22,445
Mar-22 5,890 5,949 5,884 5,891 5,925 5,921 -4 125,762 165,434
May-22 5,930 5,980 5,915 5,934 5,946 5,953 7 17,624 27,822
Jul-22 5,929 5,960 5,905 5,914 5,929 5,931 2 7,987 16,967
Sep-22 5,868 5,928 5,868 5,874 5,888 5,895 7 68 525
Nov-22 5,868 5,876 5,851 5,855 5,858 5,862 4 11 658
Corn
Turnover: 547,406 lots, or 14.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,677 2,683 2,663 2,682 2,673 2,675 2 72,790 196,050
Mar-22 2,685 2,694 2,676 2,692 2,686 2,686 0 54,918 233,944
May-22 2,732 2,738 2,714 2,734 2,727 2,729 2 380,611 980,529
Jul-22 2,730 2,739 2,717 2,736 2,730 2,730 0 24,155 94,893
Sep-22 2,711 2,718 2,698 2,712 2,711 2,710 -1 3,375 25,511
Nov-22 2,687 2,696 2,681 2,691 2,687 2,688 1 11,557 11,606
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,246,640 lots, or 39.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 3,245 3,252 3,245 -7 0 0
Jan-22 3,293 3,307 3,266 3,267 3,308 3,280 -28 208,603 333,405
Mar-22 3,159 3,175 3,120 3,121 3,182 3,146 -36 53,410 338,581
May-22 3,114 3,129 3,071 3,073 3,134 3,096 -38 868,554 1,164,929
Jul-22 3,123 3,123 3,070 3,072 3,127 3,099 -28 39,826 186,554
Aug-22 3,174 3,186 3,135 3,139 3,191 3,157 -34 45,038 83,977
Sep-22 3,162 3,181 3,132 3,133 3,186 3,155 -31 23,676 89,894
Nov-22 3,174 3,187 3,140 3,143 3,192 3,160 -32 7,533 37,206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 864,416 lots, or 70.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,834 9,900 9,834 -66 0 0
Jan-22 9,050 9,122 8,958 8,980 9,104 9,030 -74 147,490 108,405
Feb-22 8,950 9,008 8,808 8,810 8,964 8,906 -58 24,965 85,024
Mar-22 8,600 8,644 8,440 8,452 8,612 8,536 -76 7,507 42,956
Apr-22 8,244 8,320 8,112 8,122 8,284 8,192 -92 6,029 34,355
May-22 7,974 8,032 7,798 7,828 8,006 7,902 -104 668,190 343,461
Jun-22 7,820 7,836 7,608 7,642 7,820 7,716 -104 7,507 8,087
Jul-22 7,656 7,746 7,578 7,578 7,698 7,614 -84 25 793
Aug-22 7,570 7,644 7,500 7,500 7,628 7,612 -16 81 4,045
Sep-22 7,516 7,572 7,380 7,406 7,522 7,462 -60 2,525 6,347
Oct-22 7,500 7,500 7,354 7,374 7,438 7,392 -46 9 292
Nov-22 7,246 7,320 7,230 7,268 7,306 7,268 -38 88 1,466
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 869,904 lots, or 73.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,350 9,350 9,350 0 0 0
Jan-22 8,902 8,970 8,778 8,814 8,974 8,862 -112 148,239 139,803
Mar-22 8,622 8,662 8,488 8,508 8,646 8,584 -62 29,129 127,277
May-22 8,370 8,410 8,224 8,264 8,382 8,312 -70 635,936 405,912
Jul-22 8,262 8,288 8,106 8,142 8,268 8,192 -76 25,938 80,332
Aug-22 8,214 8,234 8,058 8,092 8,214 8,148 -66 11,777 34,022
Sep-22 8,100 8,154 7,980 8,016 8,132 8,070 -62 5,312 7,038
Nov-22 8,028 8,060 7,888 7,920 8,044 7,964 -80 13,573 4,897
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322