About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 14

Source: CME Group

            Contract                         Quantity     Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today  Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 15, 2021               11   Dec 13, 2021

KC HRW WHEAT   December   Dec 15, 2021               10   Dec 13, 2021

WHEAT          December   Dec 15, 2021               39   Dec 03, 2021

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 13

WA_GR101

Washington, DC    Mon   Dec 13, 2021   USDA Market News

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED

AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 09, 2021

                            — METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

  GRAIN      12/09/2021  12/02/2021  12/10/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0          73           0       10,010       17,751

CORN          810,395     774,958     924,246   10,205,976   12,092,888

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          124          437

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0           0         998          300        2,593

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM       119,720     169,626     199,093    1,233,684    1,728,068

SOYBEANS    1,723,970   2,334,121   2,458,271   25,447,765   32,325,343

SUNFLOWER           0           0           0          432            0

WHEAT         245,090     246,257     263,440   11,393,958   13,739,984

Total       2,899,175   3,525,035   3,846,048   48,292,249   59,907,064

————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT

General Comments:    Wheat closed higher yesterday as geopolitical tensions filled the air.  Trends are still sideways in all three markets.  The market is talking about the buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border and fears a war will break out.  A war between these two countries could have severe repercussions for world Wheat trade as both are big producers and exporters.  Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.  These international moves should increase demand for US Wheat but this has not really happened yet. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 751 and 711 March.  Support is at 768, 758, and 751 March, with resistance at 794, 798, and 813 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 777, 769, and 749 March.  Support is at 788, 779, and 770 March, with resistance at 822, 834, and 850 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1025, 1047, and 1056 March.

RICE:

General Comments:  Rice was slightly lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling.  USDA made only small changes to supply and demand in the latest WASDE estimates that were released last week.  Small changes were noted in the world estimates as well.  Traders were preparing for the next round of WASDE reports that will be issued later today.  Futures have held some important support areas on the daily and weekly charts but act weak.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1376 and 1357 January.  Support is at 1368, 1350, and 1339 January and resistance is at 1400, 1410, and 1423 January.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday in sympathy with Soybeans.  The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling.  Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and Mexico was a huge buyer yesterday.  Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall.  That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low.  It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 582, 576, and 572 March, and resistance is at 590, 594, and 597 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 696, 690, and 673 March, and resistance is at 723, 736, and 739 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday and the trends are still mixed on the daily charts.  USDA made no changes to its US supply and demand and ending stocks estimates.  It also made no changes to South American production estimates.  Soybean Oil closed lower despite the price action in competing oils and Crude Oil on news that the Biden administration had reduced renewable fuels blending requirements for refiners.  Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best.  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina.  Rains were reported in Argentina over the weekend and are forecast for southern Brazil this week so any weather related concerns have been put aside for now.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1237, 1214, and 1208 January, and resistance is at 12759, 1276, and 1281 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 370.00, 374.00, and 387.00 January.   Support is at 360.00, 353.00, and 347.00 January, and resistance is at 370.00 376.00, and 381.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5200 January.  Support is at 5300, 5240, and 5180 January, with resistance at 55460, 5500, and 5700 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was lower today.  Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand.  Futures are now at the lower end of the range.  Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered in Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was a little higher on tight supplies and a weaker Canadian Dollar and despite price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well.  Soybean Oil was also lower as the Biden administration has cut some of the mandates for bio fuels blending in the US.  

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 997.00, 976.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1020.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4730, 45680, and 4540 February, with resistance at 4850, 5000, and 5030 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

June

July

May

May

May

July

July

July

July

Augustg

July

July

July

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 13

     WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Dec. 13, 2021.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                Spot Price    Basis   Contract    Change

*Par Region        1005.60    0.00   Jan 22   dn 2.40

Basis: Thunder Bay 1059.80    50.00   Jan 22   up 4.20

Basis: Vancouver   1084.80    75.00   Jan 22   up 4.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 14

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                  Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec               1282.50     -30.00        Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar       1167.50     -35.00        Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun       1052.50     -27.50        Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep       1012.50     -15.00        Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

                   Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                1285.00     -30.00       Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar        1170.00     -35.00       Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun        1055.00     -27.50       Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep        1015.00     -15.00       Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

                    Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                 1295.00     -20.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                     Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                 1190.00     -20.00        Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                      Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                 5,150.00    -120.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                       Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                   502.00    -05.00        Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.23)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 14

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 171,957 lots, or 10.22 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,066     6,092     6,026     6,037     6,084     6,065       -19    20,505    22,445

Mar-22     5,890     5,949     5,884     5,891     5,925     5,921        -4   125,762   165,434

May-22     5,930     5,980     5,915     5,934     5,946     5,953         7    17,624    27,822

Jul-22     5,929     5,960     5,905     5,914     5,929     5,931         2     7,987    16,967

Sep-22     5,868     5,928     5,868     5,874     5,888     5,895         7        68       525

Nov-22     5,868     5,876     5,851     5,855     5,858     5,862         4        11       658

Corn

Turnover: 547,406 lots, or 14.87 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     2,677     2,683     2,663     2,682     2,673     2,675         2    72,790   196,050

Mar-22     2,685     2,694     2,676     2,692     2,686     2,686         0    54,918   233,944

May-22     2,732     2,738     2,714     2,734     2,727     2,729         2   380,611   980,529

Jul-22     2,730     2,739     2,717     2,736     2,730     2,730         0    24,155    94,893

Sep-22     2,711     2,718     2,698     2,712     2,711     2,710        -1     3,375    25,511

Nov-22     2,687     2,696     2,681     2,691     2,687     2,688         1    11,557    11,606

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,246,640 lots, or 39.06 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     3,245     3,252     3,245        -7         0           0

Jan-22     3,293     3,307     3,266     3,267     3,308     3,280       -28   208,603     333,405

Mar-22     3,159     3,175     3,120     3,121     3,182     3,146       -36    53,410     338,581

May-22     3,114     3,129     3,071     3,073     3,134     3,096       -38   868,554   1,164,929

Jul-22     3,123     3,123     3,070     3,072     3,127     3,099       -28    39,826     186,554

Aug-22     3,174     3,186     3,135     3,139     3,191     3,157       -34    45,038      83,977

Sep-22     3,162     3,181     3,132     3,133     3,186     3,155       -31    23,676      89,894

Nov-22     3,174     3,187     3,140     3,143     3,192     3,160       -32     7,533      37,206

Palm Oil

Turnover: 864,416 lots, or 70.27 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     9,834     9,900     9,834       -66         0         0

Jan-22     9,050     9,122     8,958     8,980     9,104     9,030       -74   147,490   108,405

Feb-22     8,950     9,008     8,808     8,810     8,964     8,906       -58    24,965    85,024

Mar-22     8,600     8,644     8,440     8,452     8,612     8,536       -76     7,507    42,956

Apr-22     8,244     8,320     8,112     8,122     8,284     8,192       -92     6,029    34,355

May-22     7,974     8,032     7,798     7,828     8,006     7,902      -104   668,190   343,461

Jun-22     7,820     7,836     7,608     7,642     7,820     7,716      -104     7,507     8,087

Jul-22     7,656     7,746     7,578     7,578     7,698     7,614       -84        25       793

Aug-22     7,570     7,644     7,500     7,500     7,628     7,612       -16        81     4,045

Sep-22     7,516     7,572     7,380     7,406     7,522     7,462       -60     2,525     6,347

Oct-22     7,500     7,500     7,354     7,374     7,438     7,392       -46         9       292

Nov-22     7,246     7,320     7,230     7,268     7,306     7,268       -38        88     1,466

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 869,904 lots, or 73.10 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     9,350     9,350     9,350         0         0         0

Jan-22     8,902     8,970     8,778     8,814     8,974     8,862      -112   148,239   139,803

Mar-22     8,622     8,662     8,488     8,508     8,646     8,584       -62    29,129   127,277

May-22     8,370     8,410     8,224     8,264     8,382     8,312       -70   635,936   405,912

Jul-22     8,262     8,288     8,106     8,142     8,268     8,192       -76    25,938    80,332

Aug-22     8,214     8,234     8,058     8,092     8,214     8,148       -66    11,777    34,022

Sep-22     8,100     8,154     7,980     8,016     8,132     8,070       -62     5,312     7,038

Nov-22     8,028     8,060     7,888     7,920     8,044     7,964       -80    13,573     4,897

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322