About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report 

Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S. 2021-22 Stockpiles (million bushels)

                    Thursday’s    Average                    USDA

                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November

Corn                   1,493.0      1,485      1,403-1,576     1,493

Soybeans                 340.0        353        320-411         340

Wheat                    598.0        591        573-623         583

****

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2020-21

                    Thursday’s    Average                    USDA

                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November

Corn                     292.7      291.7      289.5-292.6     291.9

Soybeans                  99.8      100.4       99.1-102.5     100.1

Wheat                    289.6      288.1      287.0-289.0     288.0

2021-22

                    Thursday’s    Average                    USDA

                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November

Corn                     305.5      304.2      302.2-306.2     304.4

Soybeans                 102.0      104.3      103.4-105.2     103.8

Wheat                    278.2      276.2      273.5-278.0     275.8

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Dec 9 

  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,

  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and

  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.

  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey

  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD=======================

                Ending Stocks                  Exports              Production

           21/22  20/21   19/20: 21/22   20/21    19/20: 21/22    20/21   19/20   

Soybeans   340.0  256.0   525.0:172.34  164.75   165.06:381.78   366.23   339.88  

 Brazil       na     na      na: 94.00   81.65    92.14:144.00   138.00   128.50  

 Argentina    na     na      na:  5.35    5.19    10.00: 49.50    46.20    48.80  

 China        na     na      na:  0.10    0.07     0.09: 16.40    19.60    18.09  

Soyoil     1,916  2,131   1,853: 12.72   12.39    12.32: 61.64    59.27    58.53  

Corn       1,493  1,236   1,919:204.86  177.45   172.33: 1,209    1,123    1,120  

 China        na     na      na:  0.02    0.00     0.01:272.55   260.67   260.78  

 Argentina    na     na      na: 39.00   38.50    36.25: 54.50    50.50    51.00  

 S.Africa     na     na      na:  3.20    3.20     2.55: 17.00    16.90    15.84  

Cotton(a)   3.40   3.15    7.25: 46.95   48.46    41.17:121.57   111.70   120.99

All Wheat    598    845   1,028:205.47  201.80   194.35:777.89   775.90   762.20

 China        na     na      na:  0.90    0.76     1.05:136.95   134.25   133.60

European  

   Union      na     na      na: 37.00   29.74    39.79:138.70   126.93   138.80  

 Canada       na     na      na: 15.00   26.41    24.63: 21.65    35.18    32.67  

 Argentina    na     na      na: 13.50   11.40    12.79: 20.00    17.65    19.78  

 Australia    na     na      na: 25.50   23.85     9.14: 34.00    33.30    14.48  

 Russia       na     na      na: 36.00   38.50    34.49: 75.50    85.35    73.61  

 Ukraine      na     na      na: 24.20   16.85    21.02: 33.00    25.42    29.17  

Sorghum     37.0   20.0    30.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na  

Barley      60.0   71.0    80.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na  

Oats        28.0   38.0    37.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na  

Rice        34.5   43.7    28.7: 49.74   49.84    43.41:510.78   507.20   498.84

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 10 

Source: CME Group

               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   December   Dec 13, 2021                1   Nov 29, 2021

SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 13, 2021                1   Dec 03, 2021

KC HRW WHEAT   December   Dec 13, 2021               16   Nov 29, 2021

WHEAT 

General Comments:    Wheat closed lower in response to the USDA reports that showed increased US and world ending stocks levels mostly through greater world production and somewhat reduced US export potential.  US exports were reduced by 20 million bushels and imports were reduced by 5 million bushels for a net increase in ending stocks of 15 million bushels.  The increase in world production came mostly from Australia and Russia.  Central and southern parts of the Plains are expected to get a little rain and mild temperatures that would greatly aid in establishment. Trends are still sideways in all three markets.  The market is talking about the buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border and fears a war will break out.  A war between these two countries could have severe repercussions for world Wheat trade as both are big producers and exporters.  Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country.  Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality has been much diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.  These international moves should increase demand for US Wheat but this has not really happened yet.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 751 and 711 March.  Support is at 768, 751, and 741 March, with resistance at 782, 789, and 798 March.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 769 and 729 March.  Support is at 779, 770, and 755 March, with resistance at 808, 822, and 834 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1042, 1047, and 1056 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was slightly lower yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling.  USDA made only small changes to supply and demand in the latest WASDE estimates.  Small changes were noted in the world estimates as well.  Traders were preparing for the next round of WASDE reports that will be issued later today.  Futures have held some important support areas on the daily and weekly charts but act weak.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1368, 1350, and 1339 January and resistance is at 1400, 1410, and 1423 January.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed a little higher and trends are turning up on the daily charts.  USDA made no changed to US supply and demand data but increased world production and ending stocks by a little bit.  There had been some talk of reduced US demand so the fact that it was left unchanged was considered a little bullish.  The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling.  Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and Mexico was a huge buyer yesterday.  Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall.  That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low.  It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 616 and 643 March.  Support is at 583, 576, and 572 March, and resistance is at 594, 597, and 603 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 696, 690, and 673 March, and resistance is at 736, 739, and 746 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher while Soybean Oil closed lower and the trends are still mixed on the daily charts.  USDA made no changes to its US supply and demand and ending stocks estimates.  It also made no changes to South American production estimates.  Soybean Oil closed lower despite the price action in competing oils and Crude Oil on news that the Biden administration had reduced renewable fuels blending requirements for refiners.  Traders were preparing for the WASDE reports that will be released later today.  Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best.  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina and some weather related support is coming to the futures market.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1237, 1214, and 1208 January, and resistance is at 1275, 1281, and 1289 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 347.00, 344.00, and 338.00 January, and resistance is at 362.00 363.00, and 367.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5440 and 5200 January.  Support is at 5450, 5430, and 5370 January, with resistance at 5700, 5740, and 5800 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher today on improved export demand and reports of less ending stocks from MPOB.  Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand.  Futures are now at the lower end of the range.  Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered n Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  However, competing oils are down and Canola has needed to fall as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 997.00, 976.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1020.00, 1038.00, and 10544.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4680, 4540, and 4400 February, with resistance at 4800, 4850, and 5000 February.

DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 544,059 Tons, Up 0.02%, AmSpec Says 

   By Yi Wei Wong

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Dec. 1-10 period are estimated 0.02% higher on month at 544,059 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.

  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                        Dec 1-10       Nov 1-10

   RBD Palm Olein       161,070         148,130

   RBD Palm Oil          40,189          31,420

   RBD Palm Stearin      50,506          42,833

   Crude Palm Oil       119,690         185,434

   Total*               544,059         543,944

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s November Palm Oil Exports 1.47 Mln Tons; Up 3.3%, MPOB Says 

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 3.3% on month at 1.47 million metric tons in November, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

  The following are details of the November crop data and revised numbers for October, issued by MPOB:

                          November    October        Change

                                                   On Month

  Crude Palm Oil Output  1,634,932  1,725,837  Dn     5.27%

       Palm Oil Exports  1,467,518  1,420,574  Up      3.3%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports    123,005     94,302  Up    30.44%

       Palm Oil Imports     97,092     50,450  Up    92.45%

         Closing Stocks  1,816,879  1,834,568  Dn     0.96%

         Crude Palm Oil    942,354    986,239  Dn     4.45%

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 8 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1023.60     0.00     Jan. 2022    dn  3.50

Basis: Thunder Bay  1060.70    50.00     Jan. 2022    dn 12.90

Basis: Vancouver    1085.70    75.00     Jan. 2022    dn 12.90

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084

  

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 10 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                  Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec               1317.50     +10.00        Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar       1207.50     +05.00        Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun       1087.50     +07.50        Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep       1032.50     +05.00        Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

                   Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                1320.00     +10.00       Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar        1210.00     +05.00       Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun        1090.00     +07.50       Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep        1035.00     +05.00       Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

                    Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                 1320.00     +10.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                     Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                  1220.00     +15.00        Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                      Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                  5,280.00     00.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                       Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                    508.00      +02.00        Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.212)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 10 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 202,564 lots, or 12.03 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,075     6,093     6,020     6,061     6,074     6,054       -20    48,847    29,744

Mar-22     5,959     5,960     5,874     5,880     5,953     5,898       -55   121,838   166,976

May-22     5,992     5,992     5,903     5,904     5,969     5,929       -40    22,872    26,226

Jul-22     5,968     5,968     5,885     5,888     5,954     5,903       -51     8,688    13,969

Sep-22     5,901     5,901     5,852     5,852     5,917     5,870       -47       198       510

Nov-22     5,825     5,850     5,805     5,844     5,840     5,833        -7       121       675

Corn

Turnover: 460,406 lots, or 12.35 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     2,640     2,658     2,639     2,654     2,655     2,645       -10    67,378   240,057

Mar-22     2,653     2,673     2,650     2,672     2,668     2,659        -9    43,622   228,714

May-22     2,691     2,709     2,685     2,705     2,701     2,693        -8   322,763   833,661

Jul-22     2,699     2,711     2,690     2,708     2,704     2,696        -8    16,514    94,968

Sep-22     2,681     2,694     2,678     2,690     2,691     2,684        -7     2,034    23,264

Nov-22     2,660     2,673     2,658     2,667     2,669     2,663        -6     8,095    10,776

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,203,533 lots, or 37.88 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     3,252     3,252     3,252         0         0       1,450

Jan-22     3,278     3,317     3,258     3,299     3,258     3,290        32   215,817     421,080

Mar-22     3,134     3,181     3,123     3,173     3,114     3,150        36    55,272     340,200

May-22     3,086     3,138     3,077     3,124     3,075     3,111        36   809,073   1,176,444

Jul-22     3,080     3,126     3,068     3,117     3,065     3,094        29    54,570     184,196

Aug-22     3,139     3,193     3,136     3,182     3,137     3,161        24    33,027      82,972

Sep-22     3,155     3,186     3,130     3,176     3,133     3,162        29    27,151      87,895

Nov-22     3,140     3,196     3,139     3,180     3,131     3,173        42     8,623      35,572

Palm Oil

Turnover: 952,587 lots, or 82.03 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     9,900     9,900     9,900         0         0     1,624

Jan-22     9,192     9,352     9,094     9,164     9,364     9,218      -146   412,515   158,570

Feb-22     9,040     9,218     8,976     9,024     9,222     9,080      -142    26,673    85,387

Mar-22     8,670     8,852     8,616     8,668     8,858     8,718      -140     7,679    42,992

Apr-22     8,340     8,526     8,284     8,336     8,512     8,386      -126     7,559    33,705

May-22     8,060     8,238     7,980     8,036     8,230     8,088      -142   489,880   275,787

Jun-22     7,804     8,038     7,790     7,848     8,038     7,896      -142     6,370     8,175

Jul-22     7,812     7,930     7,728     7,734     7,824     7,804       -20        15       779

Aug-22     7,714     7,784     7,630     7,636     7,862     7,646      -216       438     4,102

Sep-22     7,600     7,710     7,532     7,572     7,702     7,584      -118     1,379     4,199

Oct-22     7,518     7,518     7,474     7,474     7,634     7,496      -138         5       283

Nov-22     7,324     7,438     7,222     7,292     7,338     7,354        16        74     1,273

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 889,986 lots, or 76.53 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Dec-21         –         –         –     9,350     9,350     9,350         0         0         0

Jan-22     9,038     9,158     8,992     9,010     9,192     9,062      -130   221,530   167,496

Mar-22     8,700     8,828     8,648     8,674     8,854     8,712      -142    32,174   128,064

May-22     8,412     8,554     8,362     8,394     8,570     8,444      -126   591,571   362,130

Jul-22     8,298     8,410     8,234     8,268     8,422     8,330       -92    19,574    77,887

Aug-22     8,254     8,364     8,186     8,236     8,372     8,274       -98    10,946    31,806

Sep-22     8,200     8,304     8,120     8,148     8,298     8,212       -86     3,877     4,670

Nov-22     8,118     8,198     8,022     8,060     8,216     8,124       -92    10,314     4,761

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322