About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. December Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2021-22
Average Range USDA Nov.
Corn 1,485 1,403-1,576 1,493
Soybeans 353 320-411 340
Wheat 591 573-623 583
2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,493 340 592
Allendale 1,420 352 603
DC Analysis 1,443 340 583
Doane 1,493 340 593
EDF Man 1,493 340 593
Futures Intl 1,493 345 583
Linn 1,403 374 586
Sid Love Consulting 1,543 390 583
Midland Research 1,493 325 583
Midwest Market Solutions 1,510 320 600
Northstar 1,490 360 590
RJO Brien 1,482 363 623
RMC 1,470 355 592
StoneX 1,576 411 595
US Commodities 1,468 365 573
Vantage RM 1,493 350 583
Western Milling 1,475 335 594
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,493 340 580

DJ December World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 291.7 289.5-292.6 291.9
Soybeans 100.4 99.1-102.5 100.1
Wheat 288.1 287.0-289.0 288.0
2021-22
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 304.2 302.2-306.2 304.4
Soybeans 104.3 103.4-105.2 103.8
Wheat 276.2 273.5-278.0 275.8
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 291.9 100.1 288.0 304.4 103.8 275.8
Allendale 302.2 104.1 277.3
EDF Man 292.0 100.0 288.0 306.0 104.0 277.0
Futures Intl 306.0 104.5 277.5
Linn 303.0 105.0 278.0
Northstar 292.0 101.0 289.0 305.0 104.0 276.0
RMC 289.5 102.5 287.0 302.5 104.5 273.5
StoneX 292.6 99.1 288.9 302.6 105.2 276.6
US Commodities 303.8 104.2 276.0
Western Milling 291.9 100.1 288.0 305.0 105.0 276.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 291.9 100.1 288.0 306.2 103.4 274.4

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 09, 2021 1 Nov 12, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 09, 2021 26 Dec 03, 2021
OATS December Dec 09, 2021 2 Dec 02, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little higher on what was reported to be speculative buying. Trends are still sideways in all three markets. The market is talking about the buildup of Russian troops along th Ukraine brder nd fears a war will break out. A war between these two countries could have sever repercussions for world Wheat trade as both are big producers and exporters. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality has been much diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead. These international moves should increase demand for US Wheat but this has not really happened yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 797, 790, and 783 March, with resistance at 824, 845, and 847 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 789, and 779 March, with resistance at 850, 873, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1019, 991009, and 1001 March, and resistance is at 1047, 1056, and 1058 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling caused by the reports of the new variant of the Covid found in Africa. The variant is supposed to spread rapidly but be mild in its effects. A return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa gave the market some big problems to work though and speculators have apparently decided to reduce risk in the last week. Traders were also preparing for the next round of WASDE reports that will be issue on Thursday. Futures have held some important support areas on the daily and weekly charts. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1387, 1368, and 1350 January and resistance is at 1410, 1423, and 1444 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 8
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.71 9.36 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.68 9.39 0.00
Brokens 9.33 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher in recovery trading and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. Futures had been much weaker to start the day. The recent down trends were caused by Coronavirus fears as parts of Europe are locking down due to a resurgence of the virus and as a new variant was reported in Africa. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1.844 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 576, 572, and 563 March, and resistance is at 589, 594, and 597 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 711, 696, and 690 March, and resistance is at 739, 746, and 771 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower and the trends are mow mixed. Soybean Oil closed lower despite the price action in competing oils and Crude Oil on news that the Biden administration had reduced renewable fuels blending requirements for refiners. Traders were preparing for the WASDE reports that will be released on Thursday. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina and some weather related support is coming to the futures market. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.
Overnight News: China bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1214, and 1208 January, and resistance is at 12855, 1263, and 1275 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 348.00, 344.00, and 338.00 January, and resistance is at 354.00 360.00, and 362.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5670, 5610, and 5520 January, with resistance at 5800, 5830, and 5880 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today. Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand. Futures are now at the lower end of the range. Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered n Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was a little lower along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand. Speculators are getting ready for the USDA WASDE reports to be released on Thursday. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1010.00, 997.00, and 976.00 January, with resistance at 1038.00, 1044.00, and 1050.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4830, 4800, and 4740 February, with resistance at 5000, 5020, and 5070 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry but some precipitation is likely about Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 6
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1026.90 0.00 Jan. 2022 up 4.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 1077.10 50.00 Jan. 2022 up 10.20
Basis: Vancouver 1102.10 75.00 Jan. 2022 up 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1307.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1217.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1310.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1220.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1095.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1032.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1305.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1200.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,280.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 506.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.223)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 225,492 lots, or 13.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,087 6,109 6,034 6,040 6,136 6,071 -65 96,733 48,184
Mar-22 6,038 6,055 5,954 5,957 6,072 5,990 -82 101,540 134,737
May-22 6,039 6,044 5,973 5,973 6,074 6,002 -72 17,531 19,956
Jul-22 6,031 6,031 5,957 5,957 6,050 5,987 -63 9,513 13,731
Sep-22 5,980 5,985 5,930 5,935 6,006 5,955 -51 120 517
Nov-22 5,856 5,886 5,820 5,839 5,880 5,855 -25 55 663
Corn
Turnover: 706,717 lots, or 19.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,649 2,669 2,648 2,662 2,647 2,660 13 138,413 284,572
Mar-22 2,661 2,685 2,661 2,679 2,661 2,675 14 48,656 226,158
May-22 2,700 2,720 2,694 2,713 2,689 2,709 20 480,456 823,707
Jul-22 2,699 2,719 2,695 2,713 2,690 2,710 20 21,261 92,451
Sep-22 2,685 2,706 2,681 2,699 2,680 2,695 15 4,632 23,449
Nov-22 2,660 2,677 2,656 2,676 2,650 2,669 19 13,299 10,040
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,014,671 lots, or 3.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 3,252 3,252 3,252 0 0 2,148
Jan-22 3,210 3,224 3,201 3,220 3,218 3,211 -7 283,666 481,856
Mar-22 3,083 3,096 3,067 3,081 3,107 3,078 -29 50,004 339,690
May-22 3,043 3,050 3,021 3,037 3,055 3,032 -23 566,631 1,047,536
Jul-22 3,038 3,047 3,021 3,040 3,056 3,032 -24 32,231 183,540
Aug-22 3,101 3,115 3,092 3,108 3,120 3,102 -18 28,721 79,658
Sep-22 3,108 3,114 3,091 3,101 3,117 3,098 -19 26,694 86,900
Nov-22 3,110 3,121 3,096 3,110 3,123 3,108 -15 26,724 31,060
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,014,066 lots, or 91.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,900 9,900 9,900 0 0 1,624
Jan-22 9,646 9,656 9,314 9,370 9,586 9,496 -90 579,798 193,682
Feb-22 9,434 9,490 9,168 9,216 9,390 9,362 -28 26,163 85,944
Mar-22 9,110 9,120 8,808 8,852 9,014 8,972 -42 8,986 43,398
Apr-22 8,780 8,798 8,474 8,520 8,676 8,638 -38 8,533 33,476
May-22 8,484 8,490 8,176 8,220 8,366 8,334 -32 382,524 251,337
Jun-22 8,262 8,268 7,978 8,024 8,158 8,130 -28 6,136 8,845
Jul-22 8,000 8,050 7,900 7,908 8,060 7,964 -96 9 766
Aug-22 7,968 7,998 7,774 7,774 7,966 7,972 6 522 3,865
Sep-22 7,872 7,884 7,652 7,688 7,762 7,722 -40 996 4,269
Oct-22 7,800 7,800 7,626 7,652 7,648 7,696 48 6 279
Nov-22 7,478 7,548 7,278 7,346 7,462 7,366 -96 393 1,091
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 858,170 lots, or 76.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,350 9,350 9,350 0 0 0
Jan-22 9,390 9,420 9,168 9,198 9,342 9,286 -56 410,515 200,946
Mar-22 9,052 9,060 8,798 8,836 8,964 8,932 -32 34,086 126,988
May-22 8,780 8,794 8,524 8,570 8,684 8,654 -30 376,310 349,280
Jul-22 8,532 8,586 8,338 8,398 8,464 8,460 -4 20,600 76,541
Aug-22 8,476 8,506 8,292 8,350 8,406 8,390 -16 4,694 31,000
Sep-22 8,458 8,486 8,228 8,276 8,340 8,320 -20 1,505 4,495
Nov-22 8,398 8,398 8,146 8,190 8,256 8,250 -6 10,460 4,862
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322