About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed lower last week on demand concerns caused by the return of Coronavirus in Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa.  The variant is expected to spread quickly but produce mild reactions.  Chart patterns are bearish to add to the selling pressure.  The move came despite a strong weekly export sales report.  Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination.  News on Friday of lockdowns in Europe along with the discovery of a new variant in Africa hurt demand ideas and caused new selling.  Trends are starting to turn down on the weaker demand ideas.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 101.55 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,200 bales, from 4,200 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives.  Support is at 10350, 10150, and 10040 March, with resistance of 10590, 10920 and 11080 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 30, 2021

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   281,952

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   87,802    10,393    47,030    42,350   209,377    88,052     6,066   265,234   272,865:   16,719     9,087

    : Changes from: November 23, 2021          (Change in open interest:     -14,459)         :

    :   -7,975     1,010       -74        17   -15,233    -2,159      -697   -10,191   -14,994:   -4,269       534

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     31.1       3.7      16.7      15.0      74.3      31.2       2.2      94.1      96.8:      5.9       3.2

    : Total Traders:   282          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      127        37        75        52        65        43        13       248       170:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little lower last week and trends are still mostly down.  First swing targets were hit on Wednesday for the down move and the market has held those levels since then.  Demand ideas were hurt here and around the world by the return of Covid induced lockdowns in Europe and the discovery of a new Covid variation in Africa.  The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 121.00 and 115.00 January.  Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 128.00, 132.00, and 135.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 30, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    13,049                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,442     7,492     1,720       147         0       856     2,102        76     1,344       513     1,188 :

: Changes from:     November 23, 2021                                                                          :

:      493      -281      -129        49         0        -9       -30         0       -94        85       228 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     41.7      57.4      13.2       1.1       0.0       6.6      16.1       0.6      10.3       3.9       9.1 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    66                     :

:       18        14         5         .         0         4         8         .        17         5         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London closed higher on Friday and higher for the week on the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Covid has also returned to Vietnam and now the rest of the world and could be a factor in interrupting shipments.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good.  Scattered to isolated showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 1.587 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 201.63 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 256.00 March.  Support is at 237.00, 228.00, and 224.00 March, and resistance is at 247.00, 248.00 and 254.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2460 and 2600 January.   Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2250 January, and resistance is at 2430, 2460, and 2490 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 30, 2021

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   335,619

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   56,152     8,579   106,441    91,386   198,501    70,855    14,552   324,835   328,073:   10,784     7,547

    : Changes from: November 23, 2021          (Change in open interest:      -6,448)         :

    :   -1,976    -1,149    -6,817     4,437     1,658    -1,681      -158    -6,038    -6,467:     -410        19

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.7       2.6      31.7      27.2      59.1      21.1       4.3      96.8      97.8:      3.2       2.2

    : Total Traders:   432          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      159        65       135       117       133        45        18       375       309:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/30/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  137,294       59,549        90,366        2,456     10,012        1,504

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          43.4%         65.8%         1.8%      7.3%          1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   146            43            46            8         9            12

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  38,544         2,944         6,137     2,087        1,993          21,294

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  28.1%          2.1%          4.5%      1.5%         1.5%           15.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    43            5             10        14           11              18

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,723        3,044

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  4.2%         2.2%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower last week on speculative selling.  Weaker demand ideas were caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  The daily charts show that trends are down.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market but not in a big way.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents.  Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads.  The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season.  India is not offering as world prices are still below domestic prices.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1860, 1840, and 1810 March, and resistance is at 1920, 1960, and 2000 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 487.00, 477.00, and 471.00 March, and resistance is at 492.00, 497.00, and 506.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 30, 2021

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,049,970

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  167,526    56,428   215,820   317,101   650,384   264,033    71,543   964,480   994,175:   85,490    55,796

    : Changes from: November 23, 2021          (Change in open interest:     -49,130)         :

    :  -34,145    12,645    -6,719    13,918   -54,339    -7,505    -5,280   -34,452   -53,693:  -14,678     4,563

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.0       5.4      20.6      30.2      61.9      25.1       6.8      91.9      94.7:      8.1       5.3

    : Total Traders:   240          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       72        39        74        76        72        41        18       219       175:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/30/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  63,006        24,061        45,437        7,961      3,297         1,741

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          38.2%         72.1%         12.6%      5.2%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   101            34            34            7          4            3

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  17,113         3,460         4,843     1,699        364             774

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  27.2%          5.5%          7.7%      2.7%         0.6%            1.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    24            9             9         6            4               5

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  4,814        3,090

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  7.6%         4.9%

COCOA              

General Comments New York and London closed higher on Friday but lower for the week.  The down move showed signs of exhaustion late last week.  The return of the Coronavirus in Europe as well as the new variant found in Africa were the primary reasons to sell but are mostly part of the price now.  Much of the selling came on ideas of weaker demand caused by the reports.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.076 million bags.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,278 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2310 March, with resistance at 2480, 2530, and 2550 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1561 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1740 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 30, 2021

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   282,692

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   24,810    52,358    56,313   133,738   128,754    55,914    33,877   270,775   271,303:   11,917    11,390

    : Changes from: November 23, 2021          (Change in open interest:      14,805)         :

    :   -2,299    16,782     1,922    14,172    -9,760      -326     3,220    13,469    12,164:    1,336     2,642

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      8.8      18.5      19.9      47.3      45.5      19.8      12.0      95.8      96.0:      4.2       4.0

    : Total Traders:   231          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       61        78        73        53        36        28        17       183       167:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/30/2021

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  326,664       194,721       231,439       51,388     4,428        12,813

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          59.6%         70.8%         15.7%      1.4%          3.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   140            47            40           17          5            13

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  24,609         38,251        7,378     7,474        698            27,586

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   7.5%          11.7%         2.3%      2.3%         0.2%            8.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    19            25            13        14           7               16

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  695          4,071

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.2%         1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322