About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Food Prices Rise for Fourth Consecutive Month
By Will Horner
Global food prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in November, reaching their highest level since June 2011, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The UN FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.2% to 134.4 in November from October, driven by continued strong demand for basic food commodities.
The index, which tracks the cost of a basket of basic foodstuffs, rose thanks to price increases for grains, dairy and sugar, while meat and vegetable oil prices weakened slightly.
The FAO’s Cereal Price Index, one of five subindexes that go into the broader gauge, rose 3.1%. Cereal prices increased largely as a result of rising wheat prices, the product of strong demand and supply issues, such as heavy rains in Australia that threaten to harm the quality of the nation’s crops.
Dairy prices gained 3.4%. Depleted stocks of butter and milk powders caused tight supplies for international buyers, the FAO said.
Sugar prices rose 1.4%, reversing a decline in the previous month. Rising ethanol prices had prompted Brazilian sugar mills–which can produce either sugar or the biofuel–to increase their output of ethanol at the expense of sugar. That resulted in less sugar supply and supported prices, the FAO said.
Vegetable oil prices inched down 0.2% after hitting a record high in October. Soy and rapeseed oils had prices weaken slightly while palm oil prices were little changed, the FAO said.
Meat prices weakened by 0.9% in November, a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Pig prices have dropped for five consecutive months up to and including November on reduced Chinese imports, the FAO said.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Dec 2
For the week ended Nov 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 79.9 26.0 14320.4 18491.9 4494.6 48.5
hrw 48.5 14.0 5688.8 6479.9 1979.3 14.0
srw 22.3 12.0 2080.0 1394.1 601.3 34.5
hrs 6.0 0.0 3843.0 5115.7 1113.7 0.0
white 3.1 0.0 2559.4 4937.0 748.0 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 149.2 565.4 52.4 0.0
corn 1020.8 0.3 35430.3 38293.2 25783.6 565.2
soybeans 1063.4 -48.0 37167.1 52270.7 16096.7 0.0
soymeal 146.7 -1.0 5427.4 5101.3 3576.3 34.4
soyoil 49.3 0.0 303.1 390.0 211.7 0.0
upland cotton 374.9 0.0 9345.3 9861.0 6952.6 921.9
pima cotton 6.4 0.0 351.2 487.0 242.2 3.1
sorghum 284.7 0.0 4033.2 4531.2 3278.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.1 42.8 21.6 0.0
rice 32.9 0.0 1360.0 1458.7 388.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
LONG TERM U.S. TREASURY BOND FUTURE December Dec 03, 2021 3,359 Nov 22, 2021
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 03, 2021 1 Sep 30, 2021
CORN December Dec 03, 2021 2 Aug 27, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec 03, 2021 108 Nov 24, 2021
OATS December Dec 03, 2021 16 Nov 30, 2021
WHEAT December Dec 03, 2021 204 Nov 23, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed, with Kansas city lower but Chicago and Minneapolis higher. Trends are still down in the Winter Wheat markets but are sideways in Minneapolis. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers on more news that a new Covid variant has been discovered in Africa. Reports indicate that the virus spreads rapidly but produces mild symptoms. European nations were also starting to lock down again as the virus resurges there. Demand ideas got hurt over the last several days. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average abovenormal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 764 and 709 March. Support is at 783, 776, and 768 March, with resistance at 818, 824, and 845 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 777 and 704 March. Support is at 807, 789, and 779 March, with resistance at 847, 850, and 873 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1001, 991, and 979 March, and resistance is at 1037, 1056, and 1058 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on follow through selling due to the reports of the new variant of the Covid found in Africa. The variant is supposed to spread rapidly but be mild in its effects. A return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa gave the market some big problems to work though and speculators have apparently decided to reduce risk in the last week. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong. The crop has been largely harvested in all states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1396 January. Support is at 1394, 1387, and 1368 January and resistance is at 1409, 1423, and 1451 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in recovery trading but trends are still down on the daily charts. The down trends are caused by Coronavirus fears as parts of Europe are locking down due to a resurgence of the virus and as a new variant was reported in Africa. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. US yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Interior basis levels are also reported to be strong. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 554 and 529 March. Support is at 563, 558, and 556 March, and resistance is at 578, 583, and 589 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 705 and 661 March. Support is at 696, 689, and 673 March, and resistance is at 735, 746, and 771 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday in recovery trading but the trends are still down and are primarily caused by Coronavirus fears that have returned to the market. Soybean Oil was higher despite lower Crude Oil futures and on demand concerns due to the potential for closings to return due to a resurgence of the Coronavirus. Soybean Meal was higher as demand is expected to get strong again. The demand got real strong but has since backed off. Harvest is about over for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina and some weather related support is coming to the futures market. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.
Overnight News: China bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 164,100 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1199 and 1177 January. Support is at 1214, 1208, and 1184 January, and resistance is at 1240, 1263, and 1281 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 333.00 January, and resistance is at 353.00 355.00, and 362.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5220 January. Support is at 5460, 5430, and 5370 January, with resistance at 5730, 5790, and 5630 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on speculative selling in risk off trading before a three day weekend. Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand. Futures are now at the lower end of the range. Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered n Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 959 and 898 January. Support is at 976.00, 961.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 1010.00, 1030.00, and 1040.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of. Support is at 4640, 4540, and 4400 February, with resistance at 4800, 4830, and 4920 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 1
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 990.00 2.90 Jan. 2022 dn 38.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 1034.30 40.00 Jan. 2022 up 7.20
Basis: Vancouver 1069.30 75.00 Jan. 2022 up 7.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1292.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1175.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1045.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 980.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1295.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1177.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1047.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 982.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1290.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1185.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,180.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 488.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.228)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 214,999 lots, or 13.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,127 6,162 6,084 6,093 6,093 6,122 29 118,946 73,426
Mar-22 6,041 6,131 6,035 6,062 6,068 6,084 16 74,517 104,841
May-22 6,100 6,133 6,048 6,065 6,071 6,090 19 12,972 16,383
Jul-22 6,078 6,104 6,023 6,030 6,040 6,067 27 8,279 10,827
Sep-22 6,032 6,032 5,965 5,980 5,980 6,006 26 74 444
Nov-22 5,914 5,914 5,867 5,867 5,878 5,889 11 211 289
Corn
Turnover: 797,784 lots, or 21.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,666 2,685 2,661 2,676 2,645 2,670 25 423,939 504,155
Mar-22 2,678 2,697 2,670 2,693 2,657 2,682 25 59,393 219,943
May-22 2,704 2,725 2,694 2,718 2,684 2,708 24 281,029 609,653
Jul-22 2,700 2,718 2,693 2,713 2,681 2,701 20 16,859 88,208
Sep-22 2,685 2,694 2,677 2,689 2,664 2,683 19 4,714 21,085
Nov-22 2,649 2,654 2,639 2,652 2,634 2,647 13 11,850 8,252
Soymeal
Turnover: 909,874 lots, or 28.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 3,252 3,245 3,252 7 239 2,448
Jan-22 3,200 3,206 3,170 3,203 3,186 3,187 1 379,620 664,775
Mar-22 3,083 3,099 3,059 3,095 3,078 3,078 0 36,863 334,632
May-22 3,049 3,057 3,016 3,051 3,035 3,037 2 377,561 955,511
Jul-22 3,037 3,049 3,010 3,045 3,029 3,030 1 19,115 176,823
Aug-22 3,097 3,115 3,080 3,107 3,093 3,094 1 28,179 76,961
Sep-22 3,099 3,110 3,077 3,104 3,089 3,093 4 14,658 71,248
Nov-22 3,101 3,112 3,077 3,108 3,093 3,095 2 53,639 26,802
Palm Oil
Turnover: 988,361 lots, or 86.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,648 9,648 9,648 0 0 1,784
Jan-22 9,258 9,290 8,990 9,102 9,136 9,140 4 673,868 249,386
Feb-22 9,060 9,160 8,838 8,940 9,022 9,002 -20 29,788 84,825
Mar-22 8,746 8,794 8,472 8,558 8,678 8,628 -50 9,438 44,572
Apr-22 8,398 8,446 8,132 8,214 8,340 8,276 -64 10,432 35,663
May-22 8,074 8,120 7,808 7,872 8,014 7,944 -70 252,619 208,689
Jun-22 7,830 7,914 7,584 7,636 7,800 7,726 -74 9,791 8,390
Jul-22 7,600 7,668 7,518 7,542 7,966 7,576 -390 11 1,012
Aug-22 7,582 7,582 7,492 7,530 7,482 7,538 56 33 3,066
Sep-22 7,456 7,500 7,250 7,320 7,398 7,348 -50 2,262 4,385
Oct-22 7,394 7,402 7,238 7,238 7,356 7,244 -112 53 287
Nov-22 7,610 7,610 7,150 7,228 7,236 7,238 2 66 702
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 967,340 lots, or 84.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 – – – 9,350 9,350 9,350 0 0 0
Jan-22 9,118 9,140 8,878 8,956 9,042 9,010 -32 594,354 279,305
Mar-22 8,746 8,788 8,504 8,572 8,708 8,672 -36 33,506 122,006
May-22 8,416 8,468 8,180 8,260 8,382 8,320 -62 310,246 296,607
Jul-22 8,206 8,242 7,972 8,036 8,156 8,124 -32 20,081 71,682
Aug-22 8,114 8,194 7,928 7,992 8,108 8,050 -58 2,704 30,517
Sep-22 8,124 8,132 7,890 7,954 8,050 7,982 -68 2,042 4,164
Nov-22 7,962 8,042 7,806 7,858 7,962 7,918 -44 4,407 2,907
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322