About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed sharply lower to limit down on demand concerns caused by the return of Caronavirus in Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa.  Chart patterns turned bearish to add to the selling pressure.  Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination.  News on Friday of lockdowns in Europe along with the discovery of a new variant in Africa hurt demand ideas and caused new selling.  Trends are starting to turn down on the weaker demand ideas.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 103.77 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 400 bales, from 400 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives.  Support is at 10590, 10400, and 10340 March, with resistance of 10920, 11080 and 11350 March.

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower yesterday and trends are still turning down in the market.  Demand ideas were hurt here and around the world by the return of Covid induced lockdowns in Europe and the discovery of a new Covid variation in Africa.  The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 121.00 and 115.00 January.  Support is at 123.00, 119.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 128.00, 132.00, and 135.00 January.

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher despite the logistical and production problems in Brazil and because of the return of the Coronavirus to the world scene.  The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Covid has also returned to Vietnam and could be a factor in interrupting shipments.  Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.  Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good.  Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.599 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 200.01 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 228.00, 224.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 239.00, 247.00 and 248.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2250, 2190, and 2160 January, and resistance is at 2340, 2370, and 2400 January.

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed much lower with some follow through selling that hit all agricultural commodities yesterday and on weakness in Crude oil that hurt ideas of ethanol demand.  Weaker demand ideas were caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa.  The daily charts show that trends are down again.  Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market.  Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents.  Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads.  The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season.  India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1860, 1830, and 1730 March.  Support is at 1840, 1810, and 1780 March, and resistance is at 1880, 1920, and 1960 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 484.00 March.  Support is at 489.00, 477.00, and 471.00 March, and resistance is at 492.00, 497.00, and 506.00 March.

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower again on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to the return of the Coronavirus in Europe as well as the new variant found in Africa.  Much of the selling came on ideas of weaker demand caused by the reports.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.091 million bags.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,278 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2330, 2310, and 2280 March, with resistance at 2390, 2410, and 2430 March.  Trends in London are down with objective of 1620, 1610, and 1580 March.  Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1680, 1710, and 1730 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322