About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 30

Source: CME Group

Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   December   Dec 01, 2021                1   Mar 23, 2020

SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 01, 2021              106   Nov 11, 2021

CORN           December   Dec 01, 2021                2   Mar 10, 2021

OATS           December   Dec 01, 2021              100   Nov 17, 2021

WHEAT          December   Dec 01, 2021            1,054   Nov 12, 2021

 

WHEAT

General Comments  Wheat closed sharply lower in all three markets yesterday and trends are turning down, especially in the Winter Wheat markets.  Speculators appeared to be the best sellers on more news that a new Covid variant has been discovered in Africa.  European nations were also starting to lock down again as the virus resurges there.  Demand ideas got hurt over the last several days.  Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years.  Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon.  Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 764 and 709 March.  Support is at 776, 758, and 751 March, with resistance at 8418, 824, and 845 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 777 and 704 March.  Support is at 807, 789, and 779 March, with resistance at 843, 850, and 873 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1004, 991, and 979 March, and resistance is at 1021, 1037, and 1056 March.

 

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was sharply lower yesterday on selling seen in most other ag markets due to the reports of the new variant of the Covid found in Africa.  A return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa gave the market some big problems to work though and speculators apparently decided to reduce risk late last week and have remained with that attitude this week.  Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong.  The crop has been largely harvested in all states.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1396 January.  Support is at 1400, 1394, and 1387 January and resistance is at 1409, 1423, and 1451 January.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 1

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value  Rough      Rough

($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.58         9.28       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.55         9.31       0.00

Brokens                9.25         —-       —-

 

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower on selling caused by Coronavirus fears as parts of Europe are locking down due to a resurgence of the virus and as a new variant was reported in Africa.  Trends have turn3ed down in the market.  The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling.  Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month.  Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall.  That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low.  US yield reports have been mixed but generally strong.  Interior basis levels are also reported to be strong.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.  Oats were lower.

Overnight News:   Comolbia bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 554 and 529 March.  Support is at 573, 558, and 556 March, and resistance is at 572, 578, and 583 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 705 and 661 March.  Support is at 7300, 689, and 673 March, and resistance is at 735, 746, and 771 March.

 

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed lower again yesterday primarily as Coronavirus fears returned to the market.  Soybean Oil weakened on lower Crude Oil futures and on demand concerns due to the potential for closings to return due to a resurgence of the Coronavirus.  Soybean Meal was weaker as demand has moderated in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available.  The demand got real strong but has since backed off.  Harvest is about over for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week.  Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best.  Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.  It has been dry in Argentina but conditions for planting and initial growth are considered good for now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1199 and 1177 January.  Support is at 1208, 1184, and 12168 January, and resistance is at 1240, 1263, and 1281 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are  down with no objectives.   Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 333.00 January, and resistance is at 345.00 350.00, and 355.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5220 January.  Support is at 5430, 5370, and 57310 January, with resistance at 5730, 5790, and 605830 January;

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today on improved export demand but still faced headwinds on\\\due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand.  Futures are now at the lower end of the range.  Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered n Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk.  Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short.  There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems.  There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 959 and 898 January.  Support is at 961.00, 949.00, and 938.00 January, with resistance at 996.00, 1010.00, and 1030.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of.  Support is at 4640, 4540, and 4400 February, with resistance at 4800, 4830, and 4920 February.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
             
             
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July
       

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 30

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1028.10     0.70     Jan. 2022    dn 10.80

Basis: Thunder Bay  1027.10    40.00     Jan. 2022    dn 40.30

Basis: Vancouver    1062.10    75.00     Jan. 2022    dn 40.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 1

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec               1302.50     00.00        Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar       1197.50    -05.00        Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun       1062.50    +05.00        Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep        992.50    -05.00        Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                1305.00      00.00       Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar        1200.00     -05.00       Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun        1065.00     +05.00       Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep         995.00     -05.00       Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                 1300.00     00.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                  1195.00    +05.00        Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                   5,250.00    00.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Dec                    495.00     -05.00        Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.218)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 01

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 226,769 lots, or 13.79 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     6,116     6,153     6,050     6,127     6,109     6,093       -16   138,675    80,783

Mar-22     6,096     6,137     6,030     6,110     6,099     6,068       -31    64,060    96,806

May-22     6,080     6,127     6,025     6,101     6,095     6,071       -24    12,738    15,102

Jul-22     6,072     6,097     6,003     6,082     6,076     6,040       -36    11,168    10,546

Sep-22     6,014     6,032     5,951     6,010     6,013     5,980       -33       101       417

Nov-22     5,897     5,897     5,864     5,865     5,889     5,878       -11        27        82

Corn

Turnover: 827,645 lots, or 22.01 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     2,645     2,667     2,632     2,666     2,660     2,645       -15   480,377   535,707

Mar-22     2,656     2,679     2,650     2,677     2,664     2,657        -7    63,963   212,677

May-22     2,675     2,705     2,675     2,704     2,688     2,684        -4   242,278   534,727

Jul-22     2,660     2,701     2,654     2,697     2,687     2,681        -6    25,640    87,246

Sep-22     2,649     2,688     2,648     2,683     2,677     2,664       -13     3,769    19,532

Nov-22     2,628     2,648     2,608     2,645     2,641     2,634        -7    11,618     8,054

Soymeal

Turnover: 854,204 lots, or 26.58 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Dec-21     3,237     3,255     3,237     3,250     3,237     3,245         8     1,545     4,710

Jan-22     3,196     3,207     3,175     3,202     3,218     3,186       -32   383,781   669,814

Mar-22     3,095     3,095     3,066     3,091     3,109     3,078       -31    38,078   332,255

May-22     3,045     3,052     3,025     3,049     3,061     3,035       -26   317,023   934,760

Jul-22     3,034     3,047     3,022     3,041     3,059     3,029       -30    20,995   175,893

Aug-22     3,104     3,108     3,080     3,105     3,122     3,093       -29    26,709    75,331

Sep-22     3,090     3,106     3,080     3,104     3,116     3,089       -27    13,487    70,543

Nov-22     3,090     3,106     3,084     3,103     3,119     3,093       -26    52,586    25,383

Palm Oil

Turnover: 963,329 lots, or 85.16 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Dec-21     9,134     9,678     9,132     9,678     9,926     9,648      -278        57     1,784

Jan-22     9,046     9,294     9,002     9,258     9,276     9,136      -140   674,950   256,224

Feb-22     8,998     9,154     8,910     9,106     9,204     9,022      -182    29,726    84,234

Mar-22     8,650     8,798     8,570     8,754     8,870     8,678      -192    10,166    44,224

Apr-22     8,332     8,454     8,218     8,410     8,502     8,340      -162     8,326    34,630

May-22     7,978     8,134     7,888     8,090     8,192     8,014      -178   233,550   192,037

Jun-22     7,828     7,924     7,606     7,874     7,978     7,800      -178     4,903     7,818

Jul-22         –         –         –     7,966     7,966     7,966         0         0     1,005

Aug-22     7,560     7,560     7,474     7,524     7,738     7,482      -256       422     3,068

Sep-22     7,398     7,524     7,292     7,486     7,612     7,398      -214       615     2,848

Oct-22     7,248     7,490     7,198     7,490     7,576     7,356      -220        77       237

Nov-22     7,234     7,358     7,160     7,300     7,346     7,236      -110       537       650

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 989,137 lots, or 87.11 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Dec-21     9,350     9,350     9,350     9,350     9,510     9,350      -160         1         0

Jan-22     8,998     9,158     8,922     9,124     9,214     9,042      -172   631,540   288,888

Mar-22     8,708     8,808     8,602     8,768     8,908     8,708      -200    32,630   120,733

May-22     8,398     8,478     8,266     8,436     8,570     8,382      -188   294,099   285,717

Jul-22     8,146     8,250     8,060     8,214     8,358     8,156      -202    20,701    71,280

Aug-22     8,096     8,202     8,016     8,160     8,262     8,108      -154     4,071    30,326

Sep-22     7,992     8,138     7,964     8,102     8,218     8,050      -168     2,466     3,780

Nov-22     7,998     8,058     7,866     8,014     8,102     7,962      -140     3,629     2,722

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322