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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/01/2021

By Jack Scoville On December 1, 2021 - 10:13 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 30

Source: CME Group

Contract Quantity Next Trade

Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 01, 2021 1 Mar 23, 2020

SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 01, 2021 106 Nov 11, 2021

CORN December Dec 01, 2021 2 Mar 10, 2021

OATS December Dec 01, 2021 100 Nov 17, 2021

WHEAT December Dec 01, 2021 1,054 Nov 12, 2021

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat closed sharply lower in all three markets yesterday and trends are turning down, especially in the Winter Wheat markets. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers on more news that a new Covid variant has been discovered in Africa. European nations were also starting to lock down again as the virus resurges there. Demand ideas got hurt over the last several days. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production and are still supporting the market. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 764 and 709 March. Support is at 776, 758, and 751 March, with resistance at 8418, 824, and 845 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 777 and 704 March. Support is at 807, 789, and 779 March, with resistance at 843, 850, and 873 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1004, 991, and 979 March, and resistance is at 1021, 1037, and 1056 March.

RICE:

General Comments: Rice was sharply lower yesterday on selling seen in most other ag markets due to the reports of the new variant of the Covid found in Africa. A return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the discovery of a new variant in Africa gave the market some big problems to work though and speculators apparently decided to reduce risk late last week and have remained with that attitude this week. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong. The crop has been largely harvested in all states.

Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1396 January. Support is at 1400, 1394, and 1387 January and resistance is at 1409, 1423, and 1451 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 1

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value Rough Rough

($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)

Long Grain 14.58 9.28 0.00

Medium/Short Grain 14.55 9.31 0.00

Brokens 9.25 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed lower on selling caused by Coronavirus fears as parts of Europe are locking down due to a resurgence of the virus and as a new variant was reported in Africa. Trends have turn3ed down in the market. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. US yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Interior basis levels are also reported to be strong. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower.

Overnight News: Comolbia bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 554 and 529 March. Support is at 573, 558, and 556 March, and resistance is at 572, 578, and 583 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 705 and 661 March. Support is at 7300, 689, and 673 March, and resistance is at 735, 746, and 771 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower again yesterday primarily as Coronavirus fears returned to the market. Soybean Oil weakened on lower Crude Oil futures and on demand concerns due to the potential for closings to return due to a resurgence of the Coronavirus. Soybean Meal was weaker as demand has moderated in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available. The demand got real strong but has since backed off. Harvest is about over for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but conditions for planting and initial growth are considered good for now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1199 and 1177 January. Support is at 1208, 1184, and 12168 January, and resistance is at 1240, 1263, and 1281 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 333.00 January, and resistance is at 345.00 350.00, and 355.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5220 January. Support is at 5430, 5370, and 57310 January, with resistance at 5730, 5790, and 605830 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on improved export demand but still faced headwinds on\\\due to the world wide Covid outbreak along with worries about demand. Futures are now at the lower end of the range. Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered n Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the Coronavirus news and its potential effects on demand. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. However, competing oils are down hard and Canola needed to fall as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 959 and 898 January. Support is at 961.00, 949.00, and 938.00 January, with resistance at 996.00, 1010.00, and 1030.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of. Support is at 4640, 4540, and 4400 February, with resistance at 4800, 4830, and 4920 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
June	July	May	May	May
July	July		July	July
Augustg	July		July	July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 30

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 1028.10 0.70 Jan. 2022 dn 10.80

Basis: Thunder Bay 1027.10 40.00 Jan. 2022 dn 40.30

Basis: Vancouver 1062.10 75.00 Jan. 2022 dn 40.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 1

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports