About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed lower for the week on demand concerns. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination. News on Friday of lockdowns in Europe along with the discovery of a new variant in Africa hurt demand ideas and caused new selling. Trends are sideways on the charts but are starting to turn down on the weaker demand ideas. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 109.14 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 400 bales, from 400 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 111.00 and 107.00 March. Support is at 11030, 10890, and 10770 March, with resistance of 11350, 11450 and 11520 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week on speculative profit taking and trends are turning down in the market. Demand ideas were hurt here and around the world by the return of Covid induced lockdowns in Europe and the discovery of a new Covid variation in Africa. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 121.00 and 115.00 January. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 January, with resistance at 126.00, 128.00, and 132.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with the logistical and production problems in Brazil very important to the trade. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. The weather has been erratic and some harvest delays are being reported due to too much rain falling before.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.600 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 208.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 256.00 March. Support is at 239.00, 235.00, and 234.00 March, and resistance is at 248.00, 251.00 and 254.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2350 and 2460 January. Support is at 2250, 2190, and 2160 January, and resistance is at 2340, 2370, and 2400 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/23/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
135,045 58,193 86,732 2,183 10,127 1,791
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 43.1% 64.2% 1.6% 7.5% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 41 46 7 10 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,822 3,402 6,463 1,774 2,154 21,243
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.3% 2.5% 4.8% 1.3% 1.6% 15.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 6 9 15 12 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,576 3,133
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 2.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower with some big selling seen Friday due to extreme weakness in Crude Oil futures. Crude Oil and Sugar were hit by weaker demand ideas caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. The daily charts show that trends are turning down again. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1920, 1880, and 1860 March. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1860 March, and resistance is at 1960, 2010, and 2030 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 497.00 and 484.00 March. Support is at 494.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March, and resistance is at 506.00, 516.00, and 521.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/23/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
65,484 22,846 48,982 7,641 3,584 2,092
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.9% 74.8% 11.7% 5.5% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
96 32 34 7 4 3
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,204 2,124 4,674 1,526 344 947
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.9% 3.2% 7.1% 2.3% 0.5% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 3 9 6 4 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,554 2,737
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Much of the selling came Friday on ideas of weaker demand caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe due to Covid and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 5.121 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,278 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2280, 2250, and 2190 March, with resistance at 2430, 2480, and 2520 March. Trends in London are down with objective of 1620, 1610, and 1580 March. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1680, 1710, and 1730 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/23/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
334,457 192,817 239,309 48,092 5,181 13,520
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.7% 71.6% 14.4% 1.5% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 47 40 16 7 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,922 31,742 10,028 9,390 261 30,819
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.3% 9.5% 3.0% 2.8% 0.1% 9.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 19 14 11 5 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,869 3,597
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322