About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 26
For the week ended Nov 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 567.5 0.0 14240.5 18491.9 4786.1 22.5
hrw 304.6 0.0 5640.3 6479.9 2028.4 0.0
srw 34.5 0.0 2057.6 1394.1 602.0 22.5
hrs 133.8 0.0 3837.0 5115.7 1280.2 0.0
white 75.0 0.0 2556.4 4937.0 823.0 0.0
durum 19.5 0.0 149.2 565.4 52.5 0.0
corn 1429.2 90.0 34409.4 38293.2 25701.2 564.9
soybeans 1564.5 6.0 36170.6 52270.7 17360.4 48.0
soymeal 136.9 -0.8 5280.7 5101.3 3693.5 35.4
soyoil 42.0 0.0 253.8 390.0 206.8 0.0
upland cotton 196.9 46.2 8970.4 9861.0 6649.1 921.9
pima cotton 18.1 1.3 344.7 487.0 238.1 3.1
sorghum 146.9 0.0 3748.5 4531.2 3181.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.0 42.8 22.6 0.0
rice 74.2 0.0 1327.1 1458.7 460.8 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower after making new highs for the move again as too much rain is falling on Australian crops. The rains could easily hurt the quality of the crop and might hurt yields. The Australian problems come as the north has seen its share of problems in the growing season as well and European prices went to new highs yesterday.. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 831, 810, and 798 December, with resistance at 860, 866, and 872 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 885 and 920 December. Support is at 850, 830, and 820 December, with resistance at 890, 896, and 902 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1023, 1005, and 999 December, and resistance is at 1048, 1066, and 1086 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher on Wednesday in quiet trading. Some producer selling was possible, but many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be stronger. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far and is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1432, 1422, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1470, and 1476 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower in range trading again yesterday. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower and held the recent trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 576, 566, and 563 December, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 792 and 796 December. Support is at 737, 727, and 710 December, and resistance is at 769, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower with Soybean Oil closing higher and once again looking much improved on the charts. Soybean Meal weakened due to demand concerns and the strength in Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal demand has greatly improved in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available. The breakout has held so far. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit last week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1257, 1241, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1280, 1289, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are dpown with objectives of 355.00 and 340.00 December. Support is at 355.00, 347.00, and 344.00 December, and resistance is at 367.00 370.00, and 376.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objedtives of 6320 and 6630 Dedember. Support is at 6060, 57900, and 5790 December, with resistance at 6240, 6360, and 62400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was mixed, wih nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1015.00, 997.00, and 979.00 January, with resistance at 1038.00, 1044.00, and 1050.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4860, 4790, and 4700 February, with resistance at 5020, 5070, and 5110 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,029.70 5.00 Jan 2022 up 2.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,075.20 45.00 Jan 2022 up 5.50
Basis: Vancouver 1,110.20 80.00 Jan 2022 up 5.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1327.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1227.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1117.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1330.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1230.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1120.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1325.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1210.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,330.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 513.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2385)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 189,325 lots, or 11.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,195 6,245 6,178 6,208 6,166 6,212 46 136,308 86,530
Mar-22 6,143 6,220 6,143 6,181 6,143 6,184 41 36,549 85,782
May-22 6,155 6,215 6,150 6,175 6,137 6,181 44 6,384 10,999
Jul-22 6,141 6,188 6,124 6,146 6,109 6,151 42 10,028 10,154
Sep-22 6,067 6,122 6,045 6,064 6,029 6,090 61 44 383
Nov-22 5,905 5,947 5,905 5,918 5,873 5,913 40 12 40
Corn
Turnover: 575,958 lots, or 15.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,650 2,672 2,644 2,648 2,638 2,658 20 406,507 608,970
Mar-22 2,648 2,672 2,648 2,655 2,648 2,661 13 45,904 204,204
May-22 2,669 2,693 2,669 2,679 2,672 2,684 12 93,395 448,497
Jul-22 2,679 2,690 2,678 2,681 2,675 2,683 8 24,435 87,388
Sep-22 2,683 2,689 2,678 2,679 2,675 2,682 7 1,443 14,999
Nov-22 2,662 2,664 2,653 2,655 2,654 2,658 4 4,274 5,744
Soymeal
Turnover: 725,637 lots, or 22.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,230 3,265 3,230 3,250 3,287 3,248 -39 258 7,358
Jan-22 3,213 3,218 3,191 3,216 3,226 3,205 -21 397,056 754,078
Mar-22 3,115 3,119 3,092 3,106 3,122 3,102 -20 30,164 331,434
May-22 3,087 3,087 3,055 3,067 3,084 3,066 -18 224,944 897,679
Jul-22 3,072 3,073 3,052 3,063 3,081 3,061 -20 24,608 172,616
Aug-22 3,133 3,134 3,116 3,122 3,145 3,122 -23 27,679 74,670
Sep-22 3,128 3,133 3,114 3,121 3,143 3,121 -22 10,177 69,255
Nov-22 3,132 3,140 3,114 3,123 3,148 3,122 -26 10,751 24,370
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,042,587 lots, or 97.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 10,180 10,180 9,944 9,944 10,180 10,026 -154 314 3,158
Jan-22 9,648 9,668 9,436 9,468 9,658 9,550 -108 827,867 273,184
Feb-22 9,590 9,592 9,376 9,416 9,590 9,478 -112 26,221 84,942
Mar-22 9,250 9,266 9,092 9,124 9,244 9,172 -72 8,748 45,617
Apr-22 8,904 8,934 8,758 8,804 8,900 8,846 -54 6,781 34,590
May-22 8,572 8,628 8,456 8,506 8,590 8,552 -38 170,087 183,001
Jun-22 8,372 8,406 8,254 8,332 8,372 8,346 -26 1,805 7,889
Jul-22 8,234 8,298 8,200 8,260 8,234 8,234 0 155 992
Aug-22 8,008 8,008 8,008 8,008 8,084 8,008 -76 40 3,312
Sep-22 7,894 7,942 7,796 7,850 7,894 7,894 0 564 2,255
Oct-22 – – – 7,812 7,812 7,812 0 0 153
Nov-22 7,788 7,834 7,732 7,732 7,746 7,794 48 5 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 779,816 lots, or 72.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,486 9,486 9,466 9,470 9,674 9,478 -196 7 1,514
Jan-22 9,544 9,554 9,406 9,452 9,528 9,490 -38 557,607 325,014
Mar-22 9,200 9,250 9,120 9,180 9,202 9,196 -6 22,757 117,571
May-22 8,850 8,910 8,774 8,842 8,850 8,858 8 178,361 273,894
Jul-22 8,602 8,658 8,518 8,600 8,598 8,604 6 11,059 75,085
Aug-22 8,532 8,602 8,464 8,548 8,538 8,552 14 6,196 32,143
Sep-22 8,478 8,530 8,398 8,470 8,478 8,482 4 1,932 4,033
Nov-22 8,366 8,434 8,308 8,370 8,384 8,374 -10 1,897 2,487
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322