About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher and made new highs for the move again as too much rain is falling on Australian crops. The rains could easily hurt the quality of the crop and might hurt yields. The Australian problems come as the north has seen its share of problems in the growing season as well and European prices went to new highs yesterday.. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 860, 864, and 897 December. Support is at 843, 831, and 7810 December, with resistance at 860, 866, and 872 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 885 and 920 December. Support is at 840, 820, and 814 December, with resistance at 884, 890, and 896 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 10023, 1005, and 999 December, and resistance is at 1044, 1048, and 1066 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Some producer selling was possible, but many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The cash market is reported to be stronger. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far and is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1434, 1422, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1470, and 1476 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.80 9.42 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.77 9.45 0.00
Brokens 9.39 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in range trading again yesterday. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower and held the recent trading range.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 566, 563, and 555 December, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 792 and 796 December. Support is at 727, 710, and 702 December, and resistance is at 769, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower with Soybean Oil closing higher and once again looking much improved on the charts. Soybean Meal weakened due to demand concerns and the strength in Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal demand has greatly improved in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available. The breakout has held so far. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit last week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 330,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1257, 1241, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1289, 1292, and 1304 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 355.00, and 347.00 December, and resistance is at 370.00 376.00, and 378.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5790, and 5750 December, with resistance at 6060, 6140, and 6240 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a hgoliday. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was mixed, wih nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 973.00, 979.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1030.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4790, 4700, and 4650 February, with resistance at 5020, 5070, and 5110 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,026.80 5.00 Jan 2022 up 16.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,069.70 45.00 Jan 2022 up 2.90
Basis: Vancouver 1,104.70 80.00 Jan 2022 up 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1352.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1247.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1127.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1355.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1250.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1130.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1345.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1225.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,380.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.210)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 155,611 lots, or 9.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,185 6,212 6,150 6,198 6,229 6,182 -47 116,519 94,597
Mar-22 6,152 6,197 6,130 6,174 6,202 6,163 -39 25,339 84,969
May-22 6,161 6,188 6,127 6,173 6,202 6,156 -46 6,018 10,916
Jul-22 6,116 6,135 6,074 6,121 6,148 6,106 -42 7,672 9,533
Sep-22 6,033 6,045 6,005 6,045 6,061 6,023 -38 50 346
Nov-22 5,871 5,899 5,844 5,844 5,870 5,868 -2 13 36
Corn
Turnover: 700,637 lots, or 18.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,633 2,648 2,617 2,637 2,659 2,635 -24 472,476 646,807
Mar-22 2,654 2,656 2,625 2,650 2,660 2,647 -13 49,134 206,946
May-22 2,679 2,683 2,654 2,671 2,688 2,671 -17 135,765 430,533
Jul-22 2,677 2,690 2,666 2,676 2,690 2,677 -13 32,637 86,922
Sep-22 2,681 2,688 2,668 2,674 2,686 2,678 -8 3,510 13,604
Nov-22 2,658 2,668 2,650 2,650 2,668 2,658 -10 7,115 5,515
Soymeal
Turnover: 908,889 lots, or 28.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,318 3,322 3,291 3,307 3,303 3,305 2 239 7,726
Jan-22 3,240 3,254 3,222 3,251 3,227 3,240 13 495,110 803,737
Mar-22 3,121 3,142 3,109 3,138 3,107 3,128 21 37,312 332,747
May-22 3,085 3,100 3,069 3,097 3,067 3,087 20 271,587 885,070
Jul-22 3,075 3,100 3,060 3,091 3,063 3,082 19 42,935 171,323
Aug-22 3,148 3,160 3,131 3,156 3,129 3,149 20 33,689 72,395
Sep-22 3,133 3,157 3,133 3,148 3,130 3,145 15 13,988 67,037
Nov-22 3,135 3,162 3,135 3,153 3,134 3,149 15 14,029 22,830
Palm Oil
Turnover: 944,001 lots, or 88.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 10,186 10,186 10,040 10,102 10,264 10,138 -126 631 3,168
Jan-22 9,510 9,642 9,426 9,584 9,730 9,534 -196 743,532 300,157
Feb-22 9,338 9,526 9,300 9,494 9,582 9,428 -154 24,792 86,695
Mar-22 8,996 9,166 8,942 9,148 9,232 9,084 -148 8,193 45,984
Apr-22 8,700 8,816 8,604 8,794 8,854 8,740 -114 5,926 34,877
May-22 8,350 8,514 8,280 8,482 8,560 8,416 -144 157,882 167,419
Jun-22 8,240 8,302 8,060 8,266 8,360 8,226 -134 1,656 7,419
Jul-22 7,992 8,162 7,992 8,136 8,186 8,088 -98 101 843
Aug-22 7,910 7,910 7,858 7,858 7,946 7,870 -76 460 3,268
Sep-22 7,700 7,834 7,638 7,802 7,878 7,764 -114 823 1,946
Oct-22 7,676 7,788 7,676 7,760 7,870 7,746 -124 4 158
Nov-22 7,584 7,584 7,584 7,584 7,746 7,584 -162 1 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 843,292 lots, or 77.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,346 9,688 9,346 9,688 9,706 9,578 -128 16 1,566
Jan-22 9,376 9,502 9,310 9,468 9,532 9,414 -118 622,678 327,977
Mar-22 9,032 9,158 8,972 9,130 9,204 9,070 -134 21,940 120,376
May-22 8,640 8,788 8,608 8,764 8,810 8,714 -96 180,310 247,565
Jul-22 8,398 8,530 8,346 8,496 8,524 8,458 -66 11,224 73,079
Aug-22 8,342 8,480 8,302 8,454 8,498 8,410 -88 4,140 30,901
Sep-22 8,274 8,408 8,226 8,378 8,404 8,326 -78 934 2,224
Nov-22 8,170 8,328 8,136 8,284 8,330 8,266 -64 2,050 1,740
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322