About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 22
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 22, 2021 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 18, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/18/2021 11/11/2021 11/19/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 96 0 2,096 9,839 16,354
CORN 618,490 866,891 833,297 7,608,249 9,298,336
FLAXSEED 100 0 0 124 413
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 299 200 1,595
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 162,448 10,509 122,369 677,151 1,099,791
SOYBEANS 1,684,138 2,362,473 2,290,778 18,161,153 24,847,364
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 432 0
WHEAT 177,799 390,708 363,648 10,487,547 12,404,933
Total 2,643,071 3,630,581 3,612,487 36,944,695 47,668,786
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Nov 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 11.603 million pounds, in October, 10.2% below the previous
month, and 39.0% below October 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Oct 31 Sep 30 Oct 31 Sep 30 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/Oct
pork bellies 11,603 12,928 19,025 24,846
orange juice 551,043 614,518 653,093 677,144
french fries 956,507 886,512 1,022,623 949,379
other potatoes 212,130 204,420 218,760 226,004
chicken rstr (whole) 15,324 15,950 24,003 24,578
ham 150,813 194,549 123,324 145,994
total pork 439,622 469,917 447,115 465,619 394,794
total beef 477,063 439,621 500,216 463,020 462,784
total red meat 948,361 940,334 981,692 968,570 887,755
total chicken 756,297 737,044 911,309 888,291
total turkey 303,525 414,128 376,347 501,131
total poultry 1,062,806 1,155,101 1,291,139 1,394,747 988,025
===============================================================================

Crop Progress
Date 21-Nov 14-Nov 2020 Avg
Cotton Harvested 75 65 76 71
Corn Harvested 95 91 97 92
Soybeans Harvested 95 92 98 96
Sorghum Harvested 94 89 97 92
Peanuts Harvested 92 86 92 93
Sunflowers Harvested 90 83 91 80
Winter Wheat Planted 96 94 98 97
Winter Wheat Emerged 86 81 88 87

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 8 14 34 37 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 13 34 39 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 15 36 37 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed sharply higher and made new highs for the move as wire reports indicated that too much rain is falling on Australian crops. The rains could easily hurt the quality of the crop and might hurt yields. The Australian problems come as the north has seen its share of problems in the growing season as well.. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 860, 864, and 897 December. Support is at 831, 810, and 798 December, with resistance at 848, 854, and 860 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 867, 885, and 920 December. Support is at 840, 820, and 814 December, with resistance at 866, 872, and 878 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1005, 999, and 984 December, and resistance is at 1044, 1048, and 1066 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Some producer selling was possible, but many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. The weekly charts show that the rally continues and has made new highs with futures trading above 1400/cwt for the first time in more than a year. The cash market is also reported to be stronger, especially in Texas. Weekly chart trends are now up. Daily charts show up trends and that futures have broken through important resistance areas. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far and is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1436, 1422, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1470, and 1476 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in range trading yesterday. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower and held the recent trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 566, 563, and 555 December, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 792 and 796 December. Support is at 737, 710, and 702 December, and resistance is at 769, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher with Soybean Oil once again looking much improved on the charts. Soybean Meal weakened due to demand concerns and the strength in Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal demand has greatly improved in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available. The breakout has held so far. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit last week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1348, 1354 and 1447 January. Support is at 1257, 1241, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1289, 1292, and 1304 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 367.00, 358.00, and 355.00 December, and resistance is at 376.00 378.00, and 382.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5790, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 5990, 6060, and 6140 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower Monday on ideas of weak production ahead and good demand, especially from China for fuel uses. Futures were lower today on estimates of a big increase in production in the coming marketing year by Oil World. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 993.00, 979.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1030.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5340 and 5770 February. Support is at 4910, 4790, and 4700 February, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5180 February.

DJ Malaysia Nov 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Were Up 24.9%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-20 period are estimated to be up 24.9% on month at 1,149,481 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Nov. 1-20 Oct. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 288,308 236,945
RBD Palm Oil 40,103 76,882
RBD Palm Stearin 98,318 62,612
Crude Palm Oil 346,600 222,580
Total* 1,149,481 920,085
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week in eastern areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1019.10 5.00 Jan. 2022 up 10.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1050.60 45.00 Jan. 2022 dn 8.50
Basis: Vancouver 1085.60 80.00 Jan. 2022 dn 8.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1347.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1240.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1112.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1350.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1242.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1115.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1335.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1220.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,350.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.197)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 185,003 lots, or 11.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,262 6,262 6,180 6,185 6,288 6,229 -59 144,454 96,798
Mar-22 6,206 6,234 6,148 6,152 6,254 6,202 -52 27,153 85,292
May-22 6,222 6,231 6,155 6,156 6,254 6,202 -52 7,131 10,964
Jul-22 6,159 6,175 6,103 6,123 6,193 6,148 -45 6,175 9,752
Sep-22 6,070 6,093 6,021 6,045 6,079 6,061 -18 84 343
Nov-22 5,868 5,880 5,860 5,880 5,968 5,870 -98 6 33
Corn
Turnover: 770,500 lots, or 20.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,668 2,674 2,641 2,642 2,682 2,659 -23 518,912 661,967
Mar-22 2,663 2,669 2,653 2,655 2,668 2,660 -8 51,678 211,711
May-22 2,690 2,698 2,678 2,679 2,693 2,688 -5 161,818 410,931
Jul-22 2,688 2,695 2,684 2,685 2,690 2,690 0 31,733 86,868
Sep-22 2,683 2,690 2,680 2,686 2,680 2,686 6 2,554 12,917
Nov-22 2,663 2,674 2,662 2,669 2,661 2,668 7 3,805 5,184
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,130,529 lots, or 35.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,275 3,318 3,269 3,318 3,268 3,303 35 469 7,888
Jan-22 3,202 3,255 3,194 3,245 3,190 3,227 37 629,386 827,419
Mar-22 3,071 3,138 3,071 3,130 3,066 3,107 41 46,212 331,777
May-22 3,045 3,096 3,036 3,086 3,033 3,067 34 335,401 871,904
Jul-22 3,042 3,088 3,036 3,081 3,033 3,063 30 51,300 168,142
Aug-22 3,111 3,155 3,102 3,146 3,100 3,129 29 32,798 72,250
Sep-22 3,106 3,154 3,102 3,145 3,099 3,130 31 17,944 65,418
Nov-22 3,118 3,156 3,112 3,145 3,108 3,134 26 17,019 20,698
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,145,670 lots, or 10.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 10,288 10,400 10,098 10,098 10,288 10,264 -24 874 3,457
Jan-22 9,730 9,932 9,512 9,520 9,818 9,730 -88 956,823 318,677
Feb-22 9,590 9,746 9,392 9,398 9,642 9,582 -60 20,359 86,935
Mar-22 9,202 9,380 9,048 9,048 9,284 9,232 -52 6,227 45,495
Apr-22 8,890 9,036 8,696 8,698 8,964 8,854 -110 6,445 34,807
May-22 8,600 8,724 8,366 8,370 8,630 8,560 -70 152,481 147,940
Jun-22 8,424 8,510 8,160 8,162 8,424 8,360 -64 1,822 6,854
Jul-22 8,276 8,276 8,124 8,124 8,284 8,186 -98 6 847
Aug-22 8,000 8,000 7,904 7,904 8,208 7,946 -262 72 3,028
Sep-22 7,898 8,030 7,720 7,720 7,926 7,878 -48 552 1,517
Oct-22 7,900 7,946 7,744 7,744 7,916 7,870 -46 6 155
Nov-22 7,800 7,820 7,618 7,618 7,800 7,746 -54 3 5
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 990,231 lots, or 92.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,800 9,800 9,564 9,564 9,820 9,706 -114 26 1,572
Jan-22 9,494 9,656 9,362 9,368 9,532 9,532 0 764,403 342,339
Mar-22 9,184 9,298 9,030 9,036 9,196 9,204 8 20,275 121,835
May-22 8,802 8,924 8,650 8,656 8,834 8,810 -24 187,967 238,589
Jul-22 8,536 8,646 8,378 8,386 8,572 8,524 -48 10,129 73,903
Aug-22 8,526 8,596 8,342 8,342 8,516 8,498 -18 4,246 30,986
Sep-22 8,408 8,520 8,260 8,260 8,424 8,404 -20 863 2,237
Nov-22 8,298 8,426 8,170 8,170 8,338 8,330 -8 2,322 1,788
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322