About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher Friday as some speculative buying entered the market. Cotton futures closed higher for the week. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination. Trends are sideways on the charts but are starting to turn up again and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected. The harvest is behind the 5 year average due to rains in the Delta and Southeast that have kept farmers from the fields. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 113.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 194 bales, from 194 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11460, 11360, and 11200 March, with resistance of 11850, 11920 and 11980 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 300,523
: Positions :
: 96,217 8,294 47,665 43,613 228,001 90,641 6,382 278,136 290,341: 22,388 10,182
: Changes from: November 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -82,139) :
: 2,765 -871 -44,031 -30,953 -26,267 -7,629 -9,737 -79,847 -80,906: -2,292 -1,233
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.0 2.8 15.9 14.5 75.9 30.2 2.1 92.6 96.6: 7.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 26 75 52 61 46 17 268 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower last week on speculative profit taking and trends are sideways again in the market. There is not much going on in this market but the charts show that futures might have made a short term low last week. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 129.00 and 134.00 January. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 138.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,920 :
: Positions :
: 4,924 7,389 2,013 107 0 861 2,321 81 1,672 428 831 :
: Changes from: November 9, 2021 :
: -615 235 98 -77 0 0 -235 -86 35 -150 -193 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.1 57.2 15.6 0.8 0.0 6.7 18.0 0.6 12.9 3.3 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 17 14 6 . 0 4 12 . 21 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Retail OJ Prices Hit 2-Decade High — Market Talk
10:15 ET – Retail prices for orange juice have found at least a 20-year high, according to Nielsen. The firm reports that through Nov. 6, retail OJ prices averaged $7.64 a gallon, the highest level since data began being compiled in October 2001. Meanwhile, retail sales of OJ fell for the second-straight month, dropping to 30.6M gallons. It’s the lowest that sales have been since July. FCOJ futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange have turned higher today, up 2.1% to $1.2935 a pound. Futures have been trending higher in November after sliding for the previous two months, with the slide attributed to the end of hurricane season and the threat of supply disruptions. Since then, inflation hedging has buoyed commodities as a whole. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower last week with the logistical problems in Brazil very important to the trade. The trucks have gone on strike in Brazil, compounding logistical problems for exports from that country but the last few days of higher prices have put the lack of trucking into the price. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. More dry weather is in the forecast for much of Brazil and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. There are worries that the flowers might drop before cherries are formed. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. The weather has been erratic and some harvest delays are being reported due to too much rain falling before. Bad conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.775 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 200.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get scatter4ed showers with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 227.00, 224.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 240.00, 243.00 and 246.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 January, and resistance is at 2270, 2310, and 2340 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 340,890
: Positions :
: 56,890 10,305 109,106 88,157 198,404 74,547 15,054 328,700 332,869: 12,191 8,021
: Changes from: November 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -48,254) :
: 4,012 -2,023 -28,903 -21,590 -12,345 -307 -4,049 -46,787 -47,320: -1,467 -934
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.7 3.0 32.0 25.9 58.2 21.9 4.4 96.4 97.6: 3.6 2.4
: Total Traders: 441 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 170 61 124 115 130 44 18 383 295:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
134,579 57,850 86,255 3,733 9,918 1,930
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 43.0% 64.1% 2.8% 7.4% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 37 43 9 7 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,463 2,725 7,023 1,860 2,415 20,658
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.4% 2.0% 5.2% 1.4% 1.8% 15.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 5 10 13 12 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,062 3,655
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 2.7%

DJ Uganda’s October Coffee Exports Rose 14% on Year
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA, Uganda–Uganda’s coffee exports rose 14% on year in October aided by favorable weather and maturing plantations, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Monday.
Shipments in October, the first month of the 2021-22 season rose to 486,534 60-kilogram bags up from the 427,993 bags exported in the same month last year, the UCDA said in a report.
The volume for the bitter-tasting robusta variety, mainly used in blends and instant drinks, increased by 15%, while arabica exports rose by 6%. Uganda–which exports more coffee beans than any other country in Africa, according to the International Coffee Organization–attributes the upward trend to favorable weather and good prices which meant that farmers released excess stock in their possession.
“Coffee prices have been going up since July 2021 as Brazil faced the threat of frost and high temperatures, while Vietnam faced a challenge of shipping containers as a result of Covid-19-related restrictions. This prompted exporters to release their stocks,” the UCDA said.
Uganda’s coffee exports rose 21% last season, to reach a record 6.5 million bags as the east African country continues efforts to boost production and exports. Uganda exports the bulk of its coffee beans to the Europe Union, the U.S. and Asian markets.
Uganda ranks as the world’s fifth-largest exporter, behind Indonesia, Colombia, Vietnam and Brazil, according to data from the ICO.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed near unchanged for the week on Friday and London closed lower. The daily charts show that futures are back in the recent trading range and the weekly charts also show a range trade. The charts show that futures continue to hold support and keep the longer term up trends alive. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. It has just raised the price of Sugarcane juice for ethanol production so mills can divert more from the Sugar market into Ethanol production. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2060 and 2120 March. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2050, and 2070 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 525.00 and 534.00 March. Support is at 509.00, 504.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 521.00, 523.00, and 527.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,074,429
: Positions :
: 186,162 47,067 225,571 293,404 674,770 268,232 76,461 973,369 1,023,869: 101,059 50,560
: Changes from: November 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,642) :
: 12,077 -3,367 -5,877 -7,896 8,681 1,450 632 -246 69: -1,395 -1,711
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.3 4.4 21.0 27.3 62.8 25.0 7.1 90.6 95.3: 9.4 4.7
: Total Traders: 238 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 31 69 77 71 42 19 220 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
62,469 22,317 46,526 7,090 3,580 2,103
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.7% 74.5% 11.3% 5.7% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
94 31 33 7 4 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,284 1,905 4,035 1,332 641 810
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.9% 3.0% 6.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 3 10 6 4 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,498 2,869
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.8% 4.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed about unchanged and London closed higher last week and trends are still up in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 489,000 tons, down 10.9% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.140 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 502 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2645 March. Support is at 2540, 2520, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 1760 and 1800 March. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1660 March, with resistance at 1740, 1750, and 1770 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 264,781
: Positions :
: 26,025 46,114 52,450 119,355 128,079 55,822 29,577 253,652 256,220: 11,129 8,562
: Changes from: November 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -2,910) :
: 4,046 -3,041 6,284 -11,711 -4,819 -686 -1,167 -2,067 -2,743: -843 -167
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 17.4 19.8 45.1 48.4 21.1 11.2 95.8 96.8: 4.2 3.2
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 67 70 52 38 29 16 185 154:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
330,601 191,573 232,866 50,114 6,193 11,372
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.9% 70.4% 15.2% 1.9% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 48 41 16 7 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,645 36,804 6,797 8,445 615 32,564
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.4% 11.1% 2.1% 2.6% 0.2% 9.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 22 13 13 6 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,091 3,390
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322