About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday as some speculative and what appeared to be producer selling entered the market.. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination. Trends are sideways on the charts but are starting to turn up again and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.. Good US production is expected. The harvest is behind the 5 year average due to rains in the Delta and Southeast that have kept farmers from the fields. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near normal temperatures. Some showers are possible tomorrow. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 112.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 194 bales, from 194 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12070, 12170 and 12280 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 18
As of Nov 12. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 21 13,553 20,598 -7,045 5,528 7,101 -1,573
Mar 22 63,537 60,733 2,804 11,113 11,167 -54
May 22 19,864 19,704 160 2,371 2,428 -57
Jul 22 46,289 45,450 839 5,348 5,414 -66
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 11,395 11,038 357 13,195 12,761 434
Mar 23 2,493 2,037 456 682 461 221
May 23 995 907 88 0 0 0
Jul 23 1,140 1,104 36 44 26 18
Dec 23 1,727 1,859 -132 4,700 4,678 22
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 160,993 163,430 -2,437 43,421 44,476 -1,055
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 21 30,168 69,183 -39,015
Mar 22 149,515 124,809 24,706
May 22 36,310 31,014 5,296
Jul 22 24,987 24,117 870
Oct 22 35 35 0
Dec 22 30,516 29,073 1,443
Mar 23 1,121 559 562
May 23 519 56 463
Jul 23 115 99 16
Dec 23 2,877 2,829 48
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 276,163 281,774 -5,611

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on follow through speculative profit taking and trends are sideways again in the market. There is not much going on in this market but the charts show that futures might have made a short term low last week. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers late this week and dry conditions this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 129.00 and 134.00 January. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 January.

DJ Retail OJ Prices Hit 2-Decade High — Market Talk
10:15 ET – Retail prices for orange juice have found at least a 20-year high, according to Nielsen. The firm reports that through Nov. 6, retail OJ prices averaged $7.64 a gallon, the highest level since data began being compiled in October 2001. Meanwhile, retail sales of OJ fell for the second-straight month, dropping to 30.6M gallons. It’s the lowest that sales have been since July. FCOJ futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange have turned higher today, up 2.1% to $1.2935 a pound. Futures have been trending higher in November after sliding for the previous two months, with the slide attributed to the end of hurricane season and the threat of supply disruptions. Since then, inflation hedging has buoyed commodities as a whole. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower after moving sharply higher in the previous session as the dry Brazil weather outlook became more important. The trucks have gone on strike in Brazil, compounding logistical problems for exports from that country but the last few days of higher prices have put the lack of trucking into the price. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor and is becoming more important for New York. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. More dry weather is in the forecast for much of Brazil and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. There are worries that the flowers might drop before cherries are formed. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. The weather has been erratic and some harvest delays are being reported due to too much rain falling before. Bad conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.794 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get scatter4ed showers with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 227.00, 224.00, and 221.00 March, and resistance is at 238.00, 241.00 and 244.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 January, and resistance is at 2260, 2310, and 2340 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and the daily charts show that futures are back in the recent trading range. The charts show that futures continue to hold support and keep the longer term up trends alive. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. It has just raised the price of Sugarcane juice for ethanol production so mills can divert more from the Sugar market into Ethanol production. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2060 and 2120 March. Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1950 March, and resistance is at 2030, 2050, and 2170 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 525.00 and 534.00 March. Support is at 516.00, 509.00, and 504.00 March, and resistance is at 523.00, 526.00, and 529.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and trends are still up in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 489,000 tons, down 10.9% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.150 million bags. ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 502 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2645 March. Support is at 2540, 2520, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 1760 and 1800 March. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1660 March, with resistance at 1740, 1750, and 1770 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322