About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday in all three markets and prices are back in the recent trading range for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis continues to show topping potential. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers and were reported to be liquidating longs. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 860 December. Support is at 810, 798, and 780 December, with resistance at 843, 848, and 854 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 865 December. Support is at 814, 802, and 796 December, with resistance at 843, 850, and 854 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1015, 1005, and 999 December, and resistance is at 1044, 1048, and 1066 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday and the rally continues and has made new highs. The cash market is also reported to be stronger, especially in Texas. Weekly chart trends are now up. Daily charts show up trends and that futures have broken through important resistance areas. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far but is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1436, 1422, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1476, and 1488 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower in range trading. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were higher but held the recent trading range. It could be that the bull market is starting to run its course in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 566, 563, and 555 December, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 792 and 796 December. Support is at 737, 710, and 702 December, and resistance is at 767, 775, and 782 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower primarily as Soybeans moved back down to test support at the breakout levels just below the lows of the day yesterday. The breakout has held so far. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1354 and 1447 January. Support is at 1262, 1241, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1289, 1292, and 1304 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 367.00, 358.00, and 355.00 December, and resistance is at 376.00 379.00, and 382.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6200 and 6440 December. Support is at 5850, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 5990, 6060, and 6140 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher today in part on stronger Chicago Soybean Oil values. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was mostly higher, mostly in sympathy with Chicago Soybean Oil and the lack of available supply for crushing. However, nearby months were lower. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objective of 1020.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 993.00, 979.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1030.00, 1038.00, and 1044 .00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4790, 4700, and 4650 February, with resistance at 4920, 4950, and 5110 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1017.90 5.00 Jan. 2022 dn 22.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1070.80 55.00 Jan. 2022 up 2.90
Basis: Vancouver 1095.80 80.00 Jan. 2022 up 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilogrms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1367.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1267.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1147.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1370.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1270.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1150.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1350.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1230.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,470.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 527.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.182)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 161,031 lots, or 10.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,367 6,378 6,285 6,286 6,325 6,328 3 127,734 107,275
Mar-22 6,335 6,336 6,258 6,260 6,300 6,301 1 24,638 82,719
May-22 6,350 6,350 6,246 6,246 6,285 6,285 0 5,363 9,447
Jul-22 6,259 6,270 6,200 6,201 6,222 6,242 20 3,232 9,820
Sep-22 6,142 6,173 6,105 6,117 6,142 6,134 -8 58 322
Nov-22 5,964 5,977 5,964 5,969 5,944 5,968 24 6 28
Corn
Turnover: 814,395 lots, or 21.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,679 2,712 2,679 2,705 2,677 2,694 17 539,448 731,842
Mar-22 2,671 2,697 2,671 2,692 2,670 2,681 11 56,600 219,211
May-22 2,700 2,718 2,694 2,713 2,694 2,703 9 166,913 377,796
Jul-22 2,691 2,710 2,688 2,706 2,690 2,696 6 39,781 85,687
Sep-22 2,684 2,699 2,679 2,696 2,679 2,686 7 1,298 11,958
Nov-22 2,675 2,681 2,662 2,681 2,663 2,671 8 10,355 4,706
Soymeal
Turnover: 947,563 lots, or 29.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,322 3,324 3,269 3,294 3,305 3,288 -17 800 8,663
Jan-22 3,217 3,232 3,182 3,218 3,207 3,210 3 583,518 860,982
Mar-22 3,080 3,104 3,058 3,093 3,085 3,084 -1 45,659 326,642
May-22 3,050 3,067 3,018 3,054 3,042 3,046 4 228,370 840,307
Jul-22 3,049 3,063 3,025 3,049 3,043 3,047 4 36,576 165,941
Aug-22 3,112 3,133 3,092 3,115 3,110 3,113 3 29,611 71,750
Sep-22 3,125 3,127 3,092 3,115 3,111 3,110 -1 13,462 61,838
Nov-22 3,112 3,123 3,094 3,120 3,099 3,111 12 9,567 14,747
Palm Oil
Turnover: 902,309 lots, or 87.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 10,222 10,466 10,204 10,466 10,122 10,274 152 309 4,308
Jan-22 9,800 9,982 9,762 9,978 9,690 9,842 152 771,036 367,293
Feb-22 9,614 9,768 9,552 9,764 9,478 9,616 138 22,295 85,181
Mar-22 9,270 9,408 9,210 9,408 9,160 9,282 122 10,414 45,800
Apr-22 8,968 9,078 8,894 9,078 8,860 8,954 94 5,934 35,920
May-22 8,666 8,756 8,612 8,744 8,588 8,676 88 89,203 131,587
Jun-22 8,472 8,564 8,442 8,550 8,410 8,494 84 2,013 6,828
Jul-22 8,332 8,548 8,262 8,466 8,332 8,354 22 329 837
Aug-22 8,134 8,228 8,114 8,204 8,114 8,168 54 455 3,341
Sep-22 7,980 8,088 7,958 8,088 7,910 8,022 112 309 1,043
Oct-22 7,936 8,026 7,932 8,026 7,892 7,968 76 11 153
Nov-22 7,874 7,874 7,874 7,874 7,814 7,874 60 1 5
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 870,307 lots, or 82.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,892 9,984 9,808 9,808 9,778 9,928 150 82 1,573
Jan-22 9,666 9,722 9,592 9,698 9,598 9,660 62 678,196 359,751
Mar-22 9,262 9,370 9,224 9,342 9,194 9,280 86 26,657 121,202
May-22 8,944 9,000 8,886 8,990 8,876 8,950 74 138,151 229,323
Jul-22 8,680 8,710 8,582 8,698 8,576 8,654 78 16,501 74,332
Aug-22 8,626 8,662 8,560 8,660 8,520 8,610 90 7,114 30,858
Sep-22 8,530 8,588 8,480 8,578 8,452 8,534 82 1,021 2,312
Nov-22 8,388 8,484 8,364 8,480 8,336 8,432 96 2,585 1,358
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322