About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mixed to mostly higher yesterday. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination. Trends are sideways on the charts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.. Good US production is expected. The harvest is behind the 5 year average due to rains in the Delta and Southeast that have kept farmers from the fields. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Some showers are possible tomorrow. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to ABOVE normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 113.69 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 194 bales, from 194 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12070, 12170 and 12280 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and trends are still turning up in the market. There is not much going on in this market but the charts show that futures might have made a short term low last week. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, then isolated showers late this week and dry conditions this weekend. Temperatures will average near to BOVE normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 129.00 and 134.00 January. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 137.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed mixed and London closed lower in consolidation trading after a couple of days of big moves higher in New York. The trucks have gone on strike in Brazil, compounding logistical problems for exports from that country but the last two days of higher prices have put the lack of trucking into the price. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor and is becoming more important for New York. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for much of Brazil, but especially in the north, and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are about unchanged today at 1.793 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered to isolated showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 221.00, 215.00, and 212.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 230.00 and 233.00 December/. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2160, and 2130 January, and resistance is at 2310, 2340, and 2370 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in range trading. The charts show that futures continue to hold support and keep the up trends alive. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. It has just raised the price of Sugarcane juice for ethanol production so mills can divert more from the Sugar market into Ethanol production. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. ICE London said that 283,900 tons of White Sugar were delivered against December contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 509.00, 504.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 518.00, 523.00, and 526.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and trends are turning up in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 489,000 tons, down 10.9% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.170 million bags. ICE said that 275 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 275 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2545 and 2645 March. Support is at 2520, 2480, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2570, 2620, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 1710 and 1760 March. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1750 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322