About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday in Winter Wheat markets and lower in Minneapolis as Minneapolis continues to show topping potential. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers and were reported to be liquidating longs Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 860 December. Support is at 798, 780, and 773 December, with resistance at 830, 836, and 842 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 865 December. Support is at 814, 802, and 796 December, with resistance at 848, 854, and 860 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1005, 999, and 984 December, and resistance is at 1048, 1066, and 1086 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday and the rally from the lows continues. Weekly chart trends are now threatening to turn up. Daily charts show up trends but that futures are testing important resistance areas. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far but is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1446 January. Support is at 1410, 1400, and 1394 January and resistance is at 1422, 1426, and 1438 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower in range trading. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were higher but held the recent trading range. It could be that the bull market is starting to run its course in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 566, 563, and 555 December, and resistance is at 582, 586, and 594 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 707, 702, and 686 December, and resistance is at 738, 753, and 775 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday and Soybean Oil closed higher. Trends in both markets are sideways to up for the short term. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans. India bought 30,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1241, 1222, and 1208 January, and resistance is at 1261, 1266, and 1274 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 358.00, 355.00, and 347.00 December, and resistance is at 376.00 381.00, and 388.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5850, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 5990, 6050, and 6140 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher today in part on stronger Chicago Soybean Oil values. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher, mostly in sympathy with Chicago Soybean Oil and the lack of available supply for crushing. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objective of 1020.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 993.00, 979.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1030.00, 1038.00, and 1044 .00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4650, and 4540 February, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4950 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1017.90 5.00 Jan. 2022 dn 22.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1070.80 55.00 Jan. 2022 up 2.90
Basis: Vancouver 1095.80 80.00 Jan. 2022 up 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1352.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1250.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1135.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1355.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1252.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1137.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1330.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1210.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,400.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 520.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.174)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,139 lots, or 10.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,408 6,415 6,288 6,288 6,367 6,327 -40 135,174 112,063
Mar-22 6,359 6,376 6,264 6,266 6,330 6,296 -34 26,865 83,180
May-22 6,334 6,334 6,250 6,250 6,307 6,274 -33 4,097 9,664
Jul-22 6,261 6,285 6,169 6,169 6,252 6,235 -17 6,944 9,783
Sep-22 6,150 6,156 6,082 6,082 6,149 6,121 -28 58 307
Nov-22 5,960 5,960 5,960 5,960 5,990 5,960 -30 1 20
Corn
Turnover: 652,749 lots, or 17.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,680 2,695 2,664 2,678 2,670 2,679 9 458,022 756,279
Mar-22 2,670 2,683 2,663 2,673 2,667 2,671 4 43,436 217,308
May-22 2,701 2,701 2,685 2,690 2,695 2,692 -3 108,901 328,797
Jul-22 2,694 2,696 2,683 2,687 2,694 2,689 -5 28,447 83,246
Sep-22 2,683 2,684 2,671 2,678 2,685 2,678 -7 2,067 11,811
Nov-22 2,662 2,669 2,645 2,666 2,669 2,661 -8 11,876 3,950
Soymeal
Turnover: 841,265 lots, or 26.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,287 3,302 3,265 3,295 3,287 3,289 2 840 9,512
Jan-22 3,194 3,201 3,165 3,188 3,187 3,182 -5 541,531 870,767
Mar-22 3,080 3,085 3,053 3,068 3,070 3,064 -6 44,811 318,219
May-22 3,036 3,042 3,011 3,023 3,031 3,022 -9 177,027 837,004
Jul-22 3,041 3,043 3,012 3,028 3,030 3,023 -7 31,198 159,772
Aug-22 3,102 3,103 3,077 3,088 3,098 3,090 -8 32,162 71,670
Sep-22 3,100 3,105 3,078 3,090 3,096 3,089 -7 9,176 60,916
Nov-22 3,087 3,089 3,067 3,084 3,086 3,077 -9 4,520 9,820
Palm Oil
Turnover: 718,607 lots, or 67.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 10,016 10,150 9,980 10,150 9,968 10,060 92 60 5,324
Jan-22 9,532 9,690 9,460 9,666 9,552 9,574 22 619,192 343,456
Feb-22 9,318 9,460 9,256 9,434 9,334 9,342 8 15,860 85,565
Mar-22 9,018 9,132 8,924 9,112 9,018 9,040 22 9,141 45,210
Apr-22 8,702 8,822 8,640 8,812 8,702 8,736 34 7,000 35,957
May-22 8,400 8,546 8,374 8,536 8,420 8,470 50 64,289 115,591
Jun-22 8,258 8,376 8,198 8,360 8,258 8,292 34 2,458 6,795
Jul-22 8,124 8,280 8,048 8,270 8,174 8,144 -30 47 980
Aug-22 7,998 8,092 7,996 7,996 7,946 8,024 78 160 3,321
Sep-22 7,804 7,894 7,734 7,884 7,816 7,828 12 396 822
Oct-22 7,798 7,798 7,798 7,798 7,788 7,798 10 1 161
Nov-22 7,808 7,808 7,808 7,808 7,780 7,808 28 3 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 735,379 lots, or 68.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,750 9,762 9,622 9,746 9,758 9,704 -54 16 2,347
Jan-22 9,500 9,600 9,454 9,582 9,532 9,522 -10 595,568 368,355
Mar-22 9,070 9,182 9,036 9,170 9,090 9,098 8 19,629 121,006
May-22 8,752 8,830 8,706 8,818 8,728 8,766 38 96,499 208,603
Jul-22 8,458 8,540 8,410 8,530 8,442 8,478 36 8,607 74,425
Aug-22 8,396 8,498 8,374 8,476 8,396 8,426 30 11,833 31,208
Sep-22 8,338 8,414 8,290 8,388 8,326 8,342 16 618 2,268
Nov-22 8,216 8,326 8,168 8,322 8,210 8,254 44 2,609 891
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322