About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mixed yesterday. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar but US prices are reported to be still well below those in China so strong demand is expected to continue, at least from that destination. Trends are sideways on the charts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Some showers are possible tomorrow. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to ABOVE normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 113.69 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 194 bales, from 194 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 65% harvested, from 55% last week, 68% last year, and 64% average..
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12170, 12280 and 12400 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
———————————————————————————————————–
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 382,662
: Positions :
: 93,452 9,165 91,696 74,566 254,268 98,269 16,119 357,983 371,247: 24,680 11,415
: Changes from: November 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,424) :
: 1,015 838 -4,922 24 -322 2,362 3,383 -1,521 -1,022: 97 -402
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.4 2.4 24.0 19.5 66.4 25.7 4.2 93.6 97.0: 6.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 36 90 58 66 46 19 284 187:
———————————————————————————————————–

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower and trends are still turning up in the market. There is not much going on in this market but the charts show that futures might have made a short term low last week. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, then isolated showers late this week and dry conditions this weekend. Temperatures will average near to BOVE normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 129.00 and 134.00 January. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 137.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions
:———————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
———————————————————————————————————–
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,982
: Positions
: 5,540 7,153 1,915 184 0 861 2,556 167 1,637 578 1,024 :
: Changes from: November 2, 2021
: 196 65 136 17 0 11 681 0 79 -218 -80 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 39.6 51.2 13.7 1.3 0.0 6.2 18.3 1.2 11.7 4.1 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72
: 19 13 6 . 0 4 15 . 18 . 6 :
———————————————————————————————————–

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Nov 15
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
11/6/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/6/2021 11/7/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 204.27 245.76 -16.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.00 5.67 5.7%
Total 210.27 251.44 -16.4%
Pack
Bulk 0.14 0.18 -19.3%
Retail/Institutional 1.21 0.52 132.2%
Total Pack 1.35 0.70 94.0%
Reprocessed -1.29 -0.65 99.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.06 0.05 15.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.56 -0.03 1598.0%
Imports – Foreign 0.76 6.26 -87.8%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.21 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.41 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.05 0.07 -32.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 203.57 252.00 -19.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.19 16.3%
Total 210.78 258.19 -18.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.25 4.88 -13.0%
Exports 0.24 0.49 -49.8%
Total (Bulk) 4.49 5.37 -16.4%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.12 0.92 20.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.12 0.92 20.9%
Total Movement 5.61 6.29 -10.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 199.08 246.63 -19.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 5.27 15.5%
Ending Inventory 205.17 251.90 -18.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
6-Nov-21 7-Nov-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Pack
Bulk 2.31 1.78 30.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.17 4.83 27.7%
Total Pack 8.49 6.61 28.4%
Reprocessed -8.33 -6.43 29.6%
Pack from Fruit 0.15 0.18 -14.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.74 -0.17 328.6%
Imports – Foreign 1.76 18.67 -90.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.25 0.02 1328.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.30 0.08 1565.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 2.05 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.19 0.40 -52.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 223.39 270.47 -17.4%
Retail/Institutional 12.26 10.39 17.9%
Total 235.64 280.87 -16.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 22.68 22.23 2.0%
Domestic 1.62 1.61 0.6%
Exports 24.30 23.84 1.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 6.17 5.12 20.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 6.17 5.12 20.4%
Total Movement 30.47 28.96 5.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 199.08 246.63 -19.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 5.27 15.5%
Ending Inventory 205.17 251.90 -18.6%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. The trucks have gone on strike in Brazil, compounding logistical problems for exports from that country. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor and is becoming more important for New York. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Production in Vietnam is now estimated at 29 million tons, from 31 million previously. Brazil also has less Coffee this year due to a freeze earlier in the year and dry weather at flowering time a year ago. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for much of Brazil, but especially in the north, and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.793 million bags. GCA stocks are now 5.976 million bags, from 6.022 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 195.78 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered to isolated showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 221.00 and 225.00 December. Support is at 215.00, 212.00, and 206.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 230.00 and 233.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2350 and 2460 January. Support is at 2240, 2200, and 2160 January, and resistance is at 2310, 2340, and 2370 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
———————————————————————————————————–
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 389,145
: Positions :
: 52,877 12,328 138,009 109,747 210,749 74,854 19,103 375,487 380,190: 13,658 8,955
: Changes from: November 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 960) :
: -2,834 -520 -4,878 6,626 5,016 1,208 -19 122 -401: 838 1,361
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 3.2 35.5 28.2 54.2 19.2 4.9 96.5 97.7: 3.5 2.3
: Total Traders: 438 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 171 64 142 117 126 44 20 389 309:
———————————————————————————————————–

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. It has just raised the price of Sugarcane juice for ethanol production so mills can divert more from the Sugar market into Ethanol production. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there. Unica said that Sugarcane harvest was 17 million tons, down 36.8% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 504.00, 500.00, and 498.00 March, and resistance is at 514.00, 518.00, and 523.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
———————————————————————————————————–
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,076,071
: Positions :
: 174,085 50,434 231,448 301,300 666,089 266,782 75,829 973,616 1,023,800: 102,455 52,271
: Changes from: November 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 16,134) :
: 2,828 -1,801 7,376 -2,924 12,661 2,555 -1,727 9,835 16,509: 6,299 -375
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 4.7 21.5 28.0 61.9 24.8 7.0 90.5 95.1: 9.5 4.9
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 36 69 75 71 41 20 215 168:
———————————————————————————————————–

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but trends are turning up in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Ivory Coast exports were 3.4% higher for beans and about 2% higher for powder, butter, and chocolate in 2020-21. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 489,000 tons, down 10.9% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.188 million bags. ICE said that 275 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 275 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2545 and 2645 March. Support is at 2440, 2380, and 2330 March, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 1710 and 1760 March. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1710, 1740, and 1750 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
———————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 267,691
: Positions :
: 21,979 49,155 46,166 131,065 132,898 56,508 30,744 255,719 258,962: 11,973 8,729
: Changes from: November 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: -21,258) :
: -3,037 9,654 -18,426 2,382 -19,870 -1,927 6,715 -21,008 -21,928: -250 670
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 18.4 17.2 49.0 49.6 21.1 11.5 95.5 96.7: 4.5 3.3
: Total Traders: 227 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 74 77 54 40 30 18 191 164:
———————————————————————————————————–

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322