About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mixed yesterday in reaction to a disappointing export sales report. Demand has fallen off with the rally in the US Dollar. The production and supply and demand reports were neutral to the market. USDA increased production and left demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates that the trade had been mostly expecting. World estimates showed a slight decrease in ending stocks. Trends are sideways on the charts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 114.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 194 bales, from 194 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12170, 12280 and 12400 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and trends are turning up in the market. Thee is not much going on in this market but the charts show that futures might have made a short term low last week. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 129.00 and 134.00 January. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 137.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher and London closed lower on Friday but both closed at new highs for the move on the weekly charts. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor and is becoming more important for New York. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Production in Vietnam is now estimated at 29 million tons, from 31 million previously as farmers did not get inputs applied in time. Brazil also has less Coffee this year due to a freeze earlier in the year and dry weather at flowering time a year ago. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for much of Brazil, but especially in the north, and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.798 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 194.68 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 221.00 and 225.00 December. Support is at 215.00, 212.00, and 206.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 230.00 and 233.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2350 and 2460 January. Support is at 2240, 2200, and 2160 January, and resistance is at 2310, 2340, and 2370 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/09/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
123,678 51,205 78,568 4,251 9,603 2,035
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.4% 63.5% 3.4% 7.8% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 39 42 11 5 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,101 2,715 6,582 1,474 4,274 16,842
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.4% 2.2% 5.3% 1.2% 3.5% 13.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 5 10 12 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,188 3,059
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 2.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday in consolidation trading but higher for the week as supplies of Sugar remain a problem. London made new highs for the move last week. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. It has just raised the price of Sugarcane juice for ethanol production so mills can divert more from the Sugar market into Ethanol production. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there. Unica said that Sugarcane harvest was 17 million tons, down 36.8% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2050, 2110, and 2170 March. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 523.00, 524.00, and 533.00 March. Support is at 514.00, 503.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 523.00, 526.00, and 529.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/09/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
70,979 35,040 56,037 7,001 3,455 2,196
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.4% 78.9% 9.9% 4.9% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
95 37 38 7 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,898 1,975 3,348 1,222 355 473
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.4% 2.8% 4.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 4 10 5 3 4
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,801 3,140
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 4.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but trends are turning up in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Ivory Coast exports were 3.4% higher for beans and about 2% higher for powder, butter, and chocolate in 2020-21. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 330,000 tons, up 9.8% from last year. Ghana arrivals are now estimated at 10,951 tons, from 14,485 tons last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.209 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2545 and 2645 December. Support is at 2440, 2380, and 2330 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 1710 and 1760 December. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 December, with resistance at 1710, 1740, and 1750 December

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/09/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
325,429 188,347 236,037 50,929 5,884 11,074
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.9% 72.5% 15.6% 1.8% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 48 44 16 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,511 29,844 4,037 6,943 933 34,511
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 9.2% 1.2% 2.1% 0.3% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 28 16 13 6 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,077 3,109
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322