About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 16, 2021 32 Nov 12, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher again Friday as the world market has held strong and chart trends are turning up again. Weekly charts show that the Winter Wheat markets made new high closes for the move, but Minneapolis did not. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 860 December. Support is at 798, 780, and 773 December, with resistance at 830, 836, and 842 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 865 December. Support is at 814, 802, and 796 December, with resistance at 848, 854, and 860 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1096 and 1177 December. Support is at 1048, 1028, and 1015 December, and resistance is at 1066, 1086, and 1094 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again on Friday and higher for the week. Weekly chart trends are sideways but trends are now threatening to turn up on the weekly charts. Daily charts show up trends. USDA increased yield estimates and production and made some changes to demand that left overall demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates of 35.2 million cwt. The market had been bracing for reduced demand and a more significant increase in ending stocks. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1446 January. Support is at 1394, 1382, and 1368 January and resistance is at 1414, 1426, and 1438 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on Friday and higher for the week. The reports were really not all that bullish, but the ethanol demand was exceptional and strong ethanol demand is expected to be reported this week. The reports for Corn showed increased production but increased ethanol and industrial demand to offset the production increases and more. There were fears of a bearish report as production was expected to increase a little bit and demand could get cut. But demand for export and for ethanol consumption has been great. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were lower for the first time in many weeks last week. It could be that the bull market is starting to run its course in this market.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 198,200 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 563, 555, and 548 December, and resistance is at 579, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 724, 707, and 702 December, and resistance is at 753, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed sharply higher Friday and trends in both markets are up. Soybean Oil closed a little lower and is locked in a sideways trend. CONAB in Brazil estimated the Soybeans production at 140 million tons, much less than trade expectations. USDA showed less than expected production and yield estimates and also cut export demand for the US earlier in the week. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1208, 1181, and 1168 January, and resistance is at 1241, 1243, and 1261 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 346.00 December. Support is at 341.00, 334.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00 350.00, and 357.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5830, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 5990, 6050, and 6140 December.

DJ Brazil Soybean Planting Advances, Dry Weather in South Worries — Market Talk
0723 ET – Brazilian farmers moved closer to completing their soybean planting over the past week, with sowing on 78% of the estimated area planted finished as of Nov. 11, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. That was up from 67% a week earlier and ahead of the 70% pace on the same date a year earlier. Much of the remaining area to be planted is in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where a lack of rain is worrying producers, and in the northeastern states of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piaui and Bahia, where too much rain is slowing work in the fields, AgRural said. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher Friday on ideas of weak production ahead and closed a little higher for the week. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher again. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objective of 1010.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 979.00, 961.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 1004.00, 1008.00, and 1020.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4710, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4980, 5080, and 5220 January.

DJ Malaysia November 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Up 29.4%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the November 1-15 period are estimated up 29.4% on month at 911,875 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
November 1-15 October 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 252,455 182,385
RBD Palm Oil 37,785 50,236
RBD Palm Stearin 62,618 54,182
Crude Palm Oil 275,300 204,080
Total* 911,875 704,463
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,014.40 25.00 Jan 2022 up 12.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,059.40 55.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
Basis: Vancouver 1,084.40 80.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1357.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1327.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1217.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1107.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1360.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1330.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1220.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1110.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1325.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1200.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,360.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 512.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.16)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 195,595 lots, or 12.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 6,440 6,477 6,389 6,390 6,436 6,423 -13 144,947 118,219
Mar-22 6,394 6,468 6,364 6,366 6,394 6,393 -1 37,342 80,888
May-22 6,360 6,385 6,324 6,332 6,349 6,351 2 4,216 9,201
Jul-22 6,283 6,317 6,256 6,278 6,276 6,288 12 9,022 9,852
Sep-22 6,161 6,199 6,150 6,151 6,153 6,169 16 54 295
Nov-22 6,097 6,097 5,990 5,990 6,153 6,028 -125 14 12
Corn
Turnover: 715,392 lots, or 19.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-22 2,663 2,674 2,637 2,658 2,671 2,653 -18 510,578 738,922
Mar-22 2,643 2,666 2,637 2,656 2,667 2,651 -16 44,410 215,142
May-22 2,682 2,690 2,666 2,687 2,688 2,677 -11 114,133 305,757
Jul-22 2,683 2,693 2,669 2,682 2,690 2,681 -9 32,667 81,277
Sep-22 2,680 2,690 2,665 2,672 2,685 2,674 -11 3,901 11,016
Nov-22 2,699 2,740 2,635 2,664 2,685 2,666 -19 9,703 1,431
Soymeal
Turnover: 977,338 lots, or 30.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 3,272 3,318 3,254 3,272 3,283 3,286 3 840 10,551
Jan-22 3,155 3,196 3,128 3,161 3,157 3,159 2 628,325 882,818
Mar-22 3,031 3,074 3,013 3,045 3,031 3,038 7 28,692 318,311
May-22 2,995 3,032 2,972 3,008 2,986 3,003 17 255,257 824,954
Jul-22 2,986 3,026 2,971 3,012 2,985 2,998 13 24,320 157,870
Aug-22 3,074 3,098 3,038 3,086 3,053 3,071 18 20,553 71,200
Sep-22 3,066 3,098 3,045 3,080 3,056 3,072 16 13,844 59,954
Nov-22 3,056 3,098 3,043 3,073 3,056 3,062 6 5,507 3,767
Palm Oil
Turnover: 922,353 lots, or 86.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,912 10,110 9,816 9,956 9,918 9,956 38 745 6,927
Jan-22 9,394 9,636 9,324 9,458 9,418 9,476 58 791,102 336,059
Feb-22 9,166 9,428 9,132 9,262 9,208 9,288 80 20,558 85,227
Mar-22 8,882 9,112 8,816 8,940 8,908 8,980 72 8,587 44,171
Apr-22 8,574 8,818 8,518 8,638 8,618 8,676 58 10,428 33,766
May-22 8,300 8,566 8,260 8,380 8,380 8,422 42 88,826 105,399
Jun-22 8,132 8,384 8,098 8,220 8,220 8,260 40 1,533 6,288
Jul-22 8,086 8,162 8,086 8,162 8,078 8,124 46 2 979
Aug-22 8,006 8,006 8,004 8,004 7,922 8,004 82 215 3,355
Sep-22 7,724 7,914 7,680 7,814 7,812 7,828 16 349 762
Oct-22 7,650 7,866 7,650 7,796 7,736 7,764 28 7 163
Nov-22 7,780 7,780 7,780 7,780 7,736 7,780 44 1 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 951,452 lots, or 89.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-21 9,780 9,930 9,732 9,862 9,780 9,780 0 2,070 2,358
Jan-22 9,450 9,686 9,392 9,508 9,494 9,536 42 775,804 369,551
Mar-22 9,024 9,248 8,952 9,068 9,054 9,116 62 18,385 118,753
May-22 8,622 8,872 8,576 8,690 8,720 8,734 14 126,794 200,904
Jul-22 8,350 8,590 8,308 8,414 8,442 8,458 16 6,699 74,537
Aug-22 8,290 8,548 8,264 8,374 8,392 8,422 30 17,603 29,317
Sep-22 8,262 8,456 8,186 8,302 8,324 8,326 2 896 2,272
Nov-22 8,128 8,368 8,120 8,230 8,324 8,252 -72 3,201 499
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322