About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 12
For the week ended Nov 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 285.9 22.5 13293.2 17057.5 4329.6 22.5
hrw 59.7 0.0 5219.8 6185.9 1853.9 0.0
srw 7.8 22.5 1916.1 1365.5 533.2 22.5
hrs 156.6 0.0 3609.5 4828.4 1141.7 0.0
white 62.6 0.0 2398.7 4135.0 748.3 0.0
durum -0.8 0.0 148.9 542.7 52.4 0.0
corn 1067.3 -2.5 32075.7 34167.5 25464.2 334.9
soybeans 1289.4 30.0 33293.4 49831.6 19010.4 49.8
soymeal 278.0 -0.1 4960.9 4617.1 3881.6 36.8
soyoil 10.4 0.0 144.3 316.0 117.1 0.1
upland cotton 128.0 11.6 8636.8 9102.0 6490.4 868.5
pima cotton 6.5 0.0 305.9 447.6 212.1 1.8
sorghum 261.1 0.0 3278.5 3818.9 2929.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.1 42.8 22.8 0.0
rice 43.2 0.0 1150.9 1261.1 471.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 15, 2021 22 Nov 11, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 15, 2021 147 Nov 11, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher again yesterday as the world market has held strong and chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 860 December. Support is at 798, 780, and 773 December, with resistance at 824, 830, and 836 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 865 December. Support is at 814, 802, and 796 December, with resistance at 842, 848, and 854 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1096 and 1177 December. Support is at 1028, 1015, and 1005 December, and resistance is at 1066, 1086, and 1094 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday. Weekly chart trends are sideways but imply futures could test resistance at the 1400 area basis the nearest futures contract in the near term. Daily charts show up trends. USDA increased yield estimates and production and made some changes to demand that left overall demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates of 35.2 million cwt. The market had been bracing for reduced demand and a more significant increase in ending stocks. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1446 January. Support is at 1394, 1382, and 1368 January and resistance is at 410, 1414, and 1426 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mostly a little lower in consolidation trading, but December was a little higher. The reports were really not all that bullish, but the ethanol demand was exceptional and strong ethanol demand is expected to be reported this week. The reports for Corn showed increased production but increased ethanol and industrial demand to offset the production increases and more. There were fears of a bearish report as production was expected to increase a little bit and demand could get cut. But demand for export and for ethanol consumption has been great. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 563, 555, and 548 December, and resistance is at 579, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 724, 707, and 702 December, and resistance is at 753, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday and trdends in Soybean Meal remain up. Soybean Oil closed about unchanged. USDA showed less than expected production and yield estimates and also cut export demand.. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 256,930 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1208, 1181, and 1168 January, and resistance is at 1241, 1243, and 1261 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 346.00 December. Support is at 341.00, 334.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00 350.00, and 357.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5830, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 5990, 6050, and 6140 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher today on ideas of weak production ahead. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was closed for a holiday. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objective of 1010.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 979.00, 961.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 1004.00, 1008.00, and 1020.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4710, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4980, 5080, and 5220 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,014.40 25.00 Jan 2022 up 12.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,059.40 55.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
Basis: Vancouver 1,084.40 80.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1357.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1322.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1217.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1110.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1360.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1325.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1220.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1112.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1330.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1205.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,400.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 515.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.165)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 191,413 lots, or 1.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,400 6,436 6,400 6,433 6,337 6,306 -31 13 0
Jan-22 6,470 6,484 6,405 6,438 6,482 6,436 -46 148,437 127,565
Mar-22 6,425 6,438 6,371 6,400 6,425 6,394 -31 32,832 77,186
May-22 6,350 6,384 6,329 6,355 6,359 6,349 -10 3,671 9,253
Jul-22 6,295 6,307 6,254 6,288 6,278 6,276 -2 6,407 9,320
Sep-22 6,167 6,173 6,121 6,166 6,160 6,153 -7 53 280
Corn
Turnover: 682,689 lots, or 18.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,671 2,636 -35 156 0
Jan-22 2,676 2,690 2,651 2,663 2,702 2,671 -31 493,793 732,796
Mar-22 2,679 2,686 2,650 2,656 2,693 2,667 -26 44,145 213,059
May-22 2,693 2,699 2,675 2,683 2,704 2,688 -16 108,002 292,025
Jul-22 2,692 2,700 2,678 2,685 2,706 2,690 -16 34,913 81,044
Sep-22 2,686 2,695 2,675 2,680 2,698 2,685 -13 1,680 9,601
Soymeal
Turnover: 936,012 lots, or 29.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,425 3,429 3,425 3,429 3,205 3,359 154 5 0
Dec-21 3,290 3,293 3,266 3,284 3,248 3,283 35 562 11,209
Jan-22 3,164 3,174 3,137 3,155 3,142 3,157 15 623,063 897,464
Mar-22 3,036 3,049 3,017 3,040 3,017 3,031 14 30,196 319,446
May-22 2,975 3,004 2,967 2,998 2,963 2,986 23 227,865 823,452
Jul-22 2,975 3,003 2,970 2,998 2,964 2,985 21 26,007 156,377
Aug-22 3,060 3,074 3,037 3,067 3,032 3,053 21 16,575 70,452
Sep-22 3,042 3,072 3,036 3,070 3,031 3,056 25 11,739 58,607
Palm Oil
Turnover: 830,824 lots, or 77.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,804 10,804 10,804 0 0 0
Dec-21 9,774 9,966 9,734 9,942 9,774 9,918 144 501 7,362
Jan-22 9,358 9,516 9,270 9,428 9,360 9,418 58 716,182 338,086
Feb-22 9,138 9,312 9,066 9,230 9,152 9,208 56 19,525 84,797
Mar-22 8,870 8,994 8,768 8,914 8,870 8,908 38 8,823 44,306
Apr-22 8,594 8,702 8,500 8,614 8,594 8,618 24 8,589 32,564
May-22 8,340 8,456 8,258 8,368 8,356 8,380 24 75,913 101,434
Jun-22 8,114 8,278 8,082 8,192 8,174 8,220 46 905 6,270
Jul-22 8,040 8,166 7,962 8,150 8,116 8,078 -38 15 980
Aug-22 7,872 7,972 7,872 7,926 7,894 7,922 28 18 3,570
Sep-22 7,774 7,872 7,708 7,776 7,774 7,812 38 348 791
Oct-22 7,692 7,812 7,692 7,812 7,766 7,736 -30 5 161
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 856,698 lots, or 80.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,196 9,932 10,196 264 0 0
Dec-21 9,792 9,870 9,660 9,832 9,578 9,780 202 54 4,410
Jan-22 9,472 9,580 9,374 9,498 9,462 9,494 32 705,239 375,348
Mar-22 9,010 9,144 8,930 9,054 9,004 9,054 50 21,682 118,192
May-22 8,694 8,794 8,616 8,682 8,704 8,720 16 108,601 197,684
Jul-22 8,420 8,522 8,336 8,410 8,428 8,442 14 4,994 74,527
Aug-22 8,376 8,474 8,288 8,318 8,376 8,392 16 15,217 28,035
Sep-22 8,286 8,396 8,222 8,306 8,312 8,324 12 911 2,190
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322