About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 12, 2021 4 Nov 10, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 12, 2021 283 Nov 10, 2021

DJ Brazil Raises 2021-2022 Soybean, Total Corn Forecasts
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecasts for soybean and corn production for the 2021-2022 growing season, predicting record harvests for both crops.
Brazilian farmers will produce 142 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In October, the agency forecast a crop of 140.8 million tons. Brazil produced 137.3 million tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of soybeans, and farmers have boosted the area planted with the oilseeds every year for more than a decade as the country’s farmers work to satisfy demand from China.
Brazilian farmers usually produce two crops per year taking advantage of the country’s mild winters. They frequently plant soybeans in the southern hemisphere summer, then switch to corn in the winter.
Producers will grow a total of 116.7 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said. In October, the agency forecast a total crop of 116.3 million tons. Brazil produced only 87 million tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season after a drought hit the winter crop.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher again yesterday as the world market has held strong and chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 807, 817, and 860 December. Support is at 780, 773, and 763 December, with resistance at 807, 812, and 818 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 824, 854, and 865 December. Support is at 796, 785, and 774 December, with resistance at 824, 830, and 836 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1096 and 1177 December. Support is at 1028, 1015, and 1005 December, and resistance is at 1060, 1086, and 1094 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday in part in response to the USDA reports and inflationary expectations. Weekly chart trends are sideways but imply futures could test resistance at the 1400 area basis the nearest futures contract in the near term. USDA increased yield estimates and production and made some changes to demand that left overall demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates of 35.2 million cwt. The market had been bracing for reduced demand and a more significant increase in ending stocks. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1399 and 1446 January. Support is at 1368, 1359, and 1350 January and resistance is at 136, 1414, and 1426 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports and Oats closed higher in recovery trading. The reports were really not all that bullish, but the ethanol demand was exceptional and strong ethanol demand is expected to be reported this week. The reports for Corn showed increased production but increased ethanol and industrial demand to offset the production increases and more. There were fears of a bearish report as production was expected to increase a little bit and demand could get cut. But demand for export and for ethanol consumption has been great. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 563, 555, and 548 December, and resistance is at 573, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed. Support is at 725, 707, and 702 December, and resistance is at 775, 780, and 786 December.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Production Backs Off From Record-Highs
By Kirk Maltais
After rising close to the all-time record for daily production, rates have backed off significantly, the EIA reported today.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. daily ethanol production through Nov. 5 fell 68,000 barrels per day, placing daily production at 1.04 million barrels for the week.
Last week, U.S. production hit its second-highest daily production figure ever at 1.107 barrels per day, beaten only by 1.108 million barrels in December 2017.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week had forecast production to exceed the all-time record, coming in between 1.10 million barrels and 1.11 million barrels.
U.S. ethanol inventories rose this week, with stocks reported at 20.29 million barrels. The total exceeds analyst forecasts, which were between 20.03 million barrels and 20.28 million barrels.
Corn futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade are higher in trading Wednesday, driven by a supportive WASDE report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture yesterday. The most-active contract is up 1.7% this morning.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports and on reports of export demand for Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal closed a little lower. USDA showed less than expected production and yield estimates and also cut export demand.. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1208, 1181, and 1168 January, and resistance is at 1241, 1243, and 1261 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 341.00, 334.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00 350.00, and 357.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5680 December. Support is at 5850, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6050, 6140, and 6240 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today in consolidation trading. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again in part in rection to the USDA report. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objective of 1010.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 979.00, 961.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 1004.00, 1008.00, and 1020.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4710, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4970, 5080, and 5220 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,014.40 25.00 Jan 2022 up 12.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,059.40 55.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
Basis: Vancouver 1,084.40 80.00 Jan 2022 up 15.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1362.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1317.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1207.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1107.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1365.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1320.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1210.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1110.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1320.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1200.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,380.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 505.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.166)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 196,110 lots, or 12.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 6,337 6,334 6,337 3 0 958
Jan-22 6,478 6,515 6,450 6,463 6,448 6,482 34 153,420 136,602
Mar-22 6,411 6,465 6,342 6,421 6,386 6,425 39 31,656 77,400
May-22 6,300 6,400 6,300 6,366 6,324 6,359 35 4,687 8,751
Jul-22 6,252 6,750 6,235 6,292 6,255 6,278 23 6,292 9,759
Sep-22 6,141 6,198 6,115 6,170 6,134 6,160 26 55 248
Corn
Turnover: 825,211 lots, or 22.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,670 2,675 2,670 2,675 2,700 2,671 -29 85 159
Jan-22 2,727 2,736 2,677 2,685 2,724 2,702 -22 590,494 758,022
Mar-22 2,720 2,725 2,672 2,682 2,722 2,693 -29 52,385 214,379
May-22 2,725 2,726 2,684 2,695 2,723 2,704 -19 143,013 284,091
Jul-22 2,716 2,724 2,686 2,692 2,719 2,706 -13 37,594 81,111
Sep-22 2,715 2,719 2,682 2,688 2,714 2,698 -16 1,640 9,482
Soymeal
Turnover: 883,448 lots, or 27.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 3,205 3,205 3,205 0 0 2,149
Dec-21 3,230 3,282 3,230 3,282 3,217 3,248 31 2,388 11,567
Jan-22 3,122 3,165 3,115 3,159 3,111 3,142 31 574,024 971,397
Mar-22 3,005 3,041 2,993 3,030 2,990 3,017 27 41,490 319,620
May-22 2,925 2,982 2,925 2,977 2,950 2,963 13 200,537 804,922
Jul-22 2,951 2,983 2,944 2,979 2,947 2,964 17 31,453 155,814
Aug-22 3,017 3,065 3,015 3,050 3,016 3,032 16 23,725 69,470
Sep-22 3,022 3,048 3,014 3,044 3,018 3,031 13 9,831 57,482
Palm Oil
Turnover: 920,354 lots, or 85.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,804 10,804 10,804 0 0 1,821
Dec-21 9,562 9,890 9,562 9,798 9,424 9,774 350 656 7,343
Jan-22 9,290 9,450 9,226 9,358 9,074 9,360 286 786,925 326,954
Feb-22 9,032 9,256 9,032 9,150 8,892 9,152 260 22,893 84,709
Mar-22 8,732 8,954 8,732 8,850 8,646 8,870 224 11,126 44,714
Apr-22 8,528 8,682 8,490 8,578 8,382 8,594 212 11,617 31,397
May-22 8,320 8,440 8,244 8,330 8,146 8,356 210 85,540 94,582
Jun-22 8,138 8,254 8,072 8,158 7,986 8,174 188 1,089 6,207
Jul-22 8,144 8,152 8,094 8,152 7,864 8,116 252 8 980
Aug-22 7,896 7,956 7,888 7,894 7,768 7,894 126 200 3,586
Sep-22 7,666 7,860 7,642 7,776 7,582 7,774 192 298 689
Oct-22 7,750 7,784 7,750 7,784 7,532 7,766 234 2 163
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 925,757 lots, or 86.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 9,932 9,932 9,932 0 0 996
Dec-21 9,562 9,800 9,562 9,774 9,468 9,578 110 758 4,454
Jan-22 9,390 9,540 9,340 9,472 9,216 9,462 246 739,889 377,365
Mar-22 8,914 9,090 8,900 9,020 8,786 9,004 218 30,225 118,516
May-22 8,640 8,780 8,588 8,694 8,498 8,704 206 130,991 189,001
Jul-22 8,320 8,506 8,314 8,428 8,218 8,428 210 7,595 74,425
Aug-22 8,342 8,464 8,276 8,366 8,176 8,376 200 15,716 25,441
Sep-22 8,226 8,372 8,186 8,304 8,104 8,312 208 583 2,064
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322