About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday in response to the mostly neutral USDA reports. USDA increased production and left demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates that the trade had been mostly expecting. The inflation trade held together as well as prices for many commodities were higher. Trends are still up on the carts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions today, then scattered showers showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 115.59 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 15,478 bales, from 16,507 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 12940 December. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12170, 12280 and 12400 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2020 and
Forecasted November 1, 2021
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2021 : :
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :———————–: 2020 : 2021
: : : : October 1 :November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
:
Upland :
Alabama ………: 446.0 400.0 790 906 906 734.0 755.0
Arizona ………: 123.0 119.0 1,179 1,258 1,291 302.0 320.0
Arkansas ……..: 520.0 470.0 1,179 1,226 1,226 1,277.0 1,200.0
California ……: 33.5 24.5 2,006 1,900 1,900 140.0 97.0
Florida ………: 93.0 89.0 532 782 701 103.0 130.0
Georgia ………: 1,180.0 1,160.0 887 931 952 2,180.0 2,300.0
Kansas ……….: 184.0 101.0 783 998 1,022 300.0 215.0
Louisiana …….: 165.0 105.0 986 1,006 960 339.0 210.0
Mississippi …..: 525.0 430.0 1,079 1,150 1,150 1,180.0 1,030.0
Missouri ……..: 287.0 310.0 1,144 1,285 1,285 684.0 830.0
:
New Mexico ……: 26.0 28.0 1,052 977 1,029 57.0 60.0
North Carolina ..: 330.0 350.0 759 864 933 522.0 680.0
Oklahoma ……..: 435.0 415.0 702 879 879 636.0 760.0
South Carolina ..: 179.0 205.0 802 925 925 299.0 395.0
Tennessee …….: 275.0 270.0 1,066 1,067 1,067 611.0 600.0
Texas ………..: 3,200.0 5,250.0 686 731 741 4,570.0 8,100.0
Virginia ……..: 79.0 73.0 772 1,052 1,118 127.0 170.0
:
United States …: 8,080.5 9,799.5 835 865 874 14,061.0 17,852.0
:
American Pima :
Arizona ………: 6.5 9.0 1,034 853 853 14.0 16.0
California ……: 146.0 85.0 1,562 1,609 1,581 475.0 280.0
New Mexico ……: 10.5 12.2 663 787 708 14.5 18.0
Texas ………..: 31.0 16.0 666 960 960 43.0 32.0
:
United States …: 194.0 122.2 1,352 1,387 1,359 546.5 346.0
:
All :
Alabama ………: 446.0 400.0 790 906 906 734.0 755.0
Arizona ………: 129.5 128.0 1,171 1,230 1,260 316.0 336.0
Arkansas ……..: 520.0 470.0 1,179 1,226 1,226 1,277.0 1,200.0
California ……: 179.5 109.5 1,645 1,675 1,653 615.0 377.0
Florida ………: 93.0 89.0 532 782 701 103.0 130.0
Georgia ………: 1,180.0 1,160.0 887 931 952 2,180.0 2,300.0
Kansas ……….: 184.0 101.0 783 998 1,022 300.0 215.0
Louisiana …….: 165.0 105.0 986 1,006 960 339.0 210.0
Mississippi …..: 525.0 430.0 1,079 1,150 1,150 1,180.0 1,030.0
Missouri ……..: 287.0 310.0 1,144 1,285 1,285 684.0 830.0
:
New Mexico ……: 36.5 40.2 940 919 931 71.5 78.0
North Carolina ..: 330.0 350.0 759 864 933 522.0 680.0
Oklahoma ……..: 435.0 415.0 702 879 879 636.0 760.0
South Carolina ..: 179.0 205.0 802 925 925 299.0 395.0
Tennessee …….: 275.0 270.0 1,066 1,067 1,067 611.0 600.0
Texas ………..: 3,231.0 5,266.0 685 732 741 4,613.0 8,132.0
Virginia ……..: 79.0 73.0 772 1,052 1,118 127.0 170.0
:
United States …: 8,274.5 9,921.7 847 871 880 14,607.5 18,198.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.74 12.09 11.19 11.19
Harvested 11.50 8.27 9.92 9.92
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 831 847 871 880
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.85 7.25 3.15 3.15
Production 19.91 14.61 18.00 18.20
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 24.77 21.86 21.16 21.35
Domestic Use 2.15 2.40 2.50 2.50
Exports, Total 15.51 16.37 15.50 15.50
Use, Total 17.66 18.77 18.00 18.00
Unaccounted 2/ -0.15 -0.06 -0.04 -0.05
Ending Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.20 3.40
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 59.6 66.3 90.0 90.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 618 – 18 November 2021

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2021/22 Proj.
World
Oct 90.30 120.28 46.45 123.40 46.43 0.06 87.13
Nov 89.28 121.79 46.62 124.10 46.61 0.06 86.93
World Less China
Oct 51.04 93.53 35.95 83.40 46.38 0.06 50.67
Nov 50.03 95.04 36.12 84.10 46.56 0.06 50.48
United States
Oct 3.15 18.00 0.01 2.50 15.50 -0.04 3.20
Nov 3.15 18.20 0.01 2.50 15.50 -0.05 3.40
Total Foreign
Oct 87.15 102.28 46.44 120.90 30.93 0.11 83.93
Nov 86.13 103.59 46.62 121.60 31.11 0.11 83.53
Major Exporters 4/
Oct 34.61 59.42 1.78 34.73 26.55 0.02 34.51
Nov 33.88 60.78 1.78 35.03 26.97 0.02 34.42
Major Importers 8/
Oct 49.91 39.74 42.04 82.14 2.72 0.09 46.75
Nov 49.62 39.70 42.21 82.54 2.48 0.09 46.43
================================================================================
WASDE – 618 – 28 November 2021

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on what appeared to be follow through speculative buying and might have completed a short term low in the market. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are gone so speculators have gotten out of longs and got short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 January, with resistance at 125.00, 127.00, and 128.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in part on ideas that the market was ovrsold. The fundamentals are still considered bullish for both markets. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Production in Vietnam is now estimated at 29 million tons, from 31 million previously as farmers did not get inputs applied in time. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Brazil also has less Coffee this year due to a freeze earlier in the year and dry weather at flowering time a year ago. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for much of Brazil, but especially in the north, and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. Production conditions for the next crop in Brazil are called good. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.830 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 199.00, 197.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 206.00, 212.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2130, and 2090 January, and resistance is at 2240, 2280, and 2310 January.

DJ Africa Coffee Exports Rose 2.2% in the Year Ended Sept. 30
By George Mwangi
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Coffee exports from the African continent rose 2.2% on year in the period from October 2020 to September 2021, with the number of 60-kilogram bags sold overseas rising to 13.95 million, the International Coffee Organization said in its recent monthly report.
On a cumulative basis, exports of the commodity from Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya in the year ended Sept. 30 were up 12.2%, 25.0% and 5.9%, respectively, the ICO said in its October coffee market report on Sunday.
Conversely, coffee exports from Ethiopia and Ivory Coast in the same period were down 12.2% and 49.0%, respectively, the ICO said.
In October 2021, coffee prices reached new multi-year highs. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price came in at 181.57 U.S. cents a pound, up 6.8% from 170.02 cents in September.
“These price levels during coffee year 2020/21 mark a significant recovery from the low levels experienced over the three preceding coffee years,” the ICO said.
Africa’s total coffee production in the coffee year is set to remain at the same level as the previous year at 18.75 million 60-kilogram bags, the ICO said.
Harvesting for the crop year 2020/21 has been completed in all producing countries and the focus of the market is expected to turn to output in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 coffee years, the ICO said.
“The uncertainty created by weather-related shocks and potential disruptions in trade flows from stricter pandemic-related measures has become a serious threat to the regularity of green coffee supply,” the ICO said.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little lower as supplies of Sugar remain a problem, but London closed a little higher. Ethanol demand for the US was strong. London closed higher. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2050, 2110, and 2170 March. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1920 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 524.00 March. Support is at 505.00, 500.00, and 498.00 March, and resistance is at 515.00, 523.00, and 526.00 March.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 36.8% in Second Half of October
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of October compared with a year earlier, as many mills began to shut down due to dwindling supplies of cane, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 17 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 36.8% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Wednesday. They produced 858,000 tons of sugar, down 50.6%, and made 1.05 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 30.3%.
The production mix for the second half of October was 37% sugar to 63% ethanol, compared with 43.5% sugar and 56.5% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
A drought in cane-producing regions of the center south, and frosts in July and August, reduced the amount of raw material available for processing, and many mills shut down for the season in the second half of last month.
In the period from April 1 through Oct. 31, mills in the region crushed 504.4 million tons of cane, down 10.9% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 14.3% to 31.2 million tons, and ethanol output declined 7.6% to 25.1 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 31 was 45.3% sugar to 54.7% ethanol, compared with 46.6% sugar and 53.4% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2020 and
Forecasted November 1, 2021
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2021 : :
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :————————-: 2020 : 2021
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
:
California 1/ : 23.9 23.8 45.5 45.5 45.5 1,087 1,083
Colorado …..: 23.7 23.7 31.3 32.8 33.3 742 789
Idaho ……..: 169.0 170.0 40.5 41.1 40.2 6,845 6,834
Michigan …..: 154.0 152.0 28.3 31.3 33.1 4,358 5,031
Minnesota ….: 427.0 426.0 26.1 28.1 30.5 11,145 12,993
Montana ……: 38.0 43.5 31.3 31.6 30.5 1,189 1,327
Nebraska …..: 45.7 43.6 31.0 29.7 29.7 1,417 1,295
North Dakota .: 219.0 224.0 24.9 26.9 28.0 5,453 6,272
Oregon …….: 9.4 10.3 40.9 40.3 39.4 384 406
Washington …: 1.8 1.9 47.8 47.8 47.8 86 91
Wyoming ……: 30.8 31.7 29.6 28.3 29.0 912 919
:
United States : 1,142.3 1,150.5 29.4 31.0 32.2 33,618 37,040
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2020 and Forecasted November 1, 2021
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2021 : :
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :————————-: 2020 : 2021
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
:
Florida ……: 423.3 406.0 44.4 42.7 42.7 18,795 17,336
Louisiana ….: 488.4 490.0 33.1 32.2 31.8 16,167 15,582
Texas ……..: 35.9 36.0 31.7 32.8 32.8 1,138 1,181
:
United States : 947.6 932.0 38.1 36.8 36.6 36,100 34,099
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1783 1618 1681 1728
Production 2/ 8149 9230 9286 9332
Beet Sugar 4351 5092 5348 5413
Cane Sugar 3798 4139 3939 3919
Florida 2106 2089 2005 2005
Louisiana 1566 1916 1804 1784
Texas 126 134 130 130
Imports 4165 3195 3000 3045
TRQ 3/ 2152 1749 1591 1611
Other Program 4/ 432 292 250 250
Other 5/ 1581 1154 1159 1184
Mexico 1376 968 1084 1084
Total Supply 14097 14043 13967 14105
Exports 61 49 35 35
Deliveries 12344 12225 12305 12305
Food 12246 12109 12200 12200
Other 6/ 98 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 74 40 0 0
Total Use 12479 12315 12340 12340
Ending Stocks 1618 1728 1627 1765
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.0 14.0 13.2 14.3
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2020/21 Est.
Oct 858 5715 67 4469 1161 1010
Nov 858 5715 65 4420 1165 1053
2021/22 Proj.
Oct 1010 5940 63 4415 1678 920
Nov 1053 5979 63 4401 1777 917
================================================================================
WASDE – 618 – 17 November 2021

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed slightly lower and made new lows for the move as ideas of increasing supplies are still around. Trends are turning sideways in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Ivory Coast exports were 3.4% higher for beans and about 2% higher for powder, butter, and chocolate in 2020-21. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 330,000 tons, up 9.8% from last year. Ghana arrivals are now estimated at 10,951 tons, from 14,485 tons last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.229 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2000 December. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2310 December, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2500 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1710 December

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322