About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 7-Nov 31-Oct 2020 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 98 94 100 98
Cotton Harvested 55 45 60 57
Corn Harvested 84 74 90 78
Soybeans Harvested 87 79 91 88
Sorghum Harvested 86 80 89 90
Peanuts Harvested 79 67 76 82
Sugarbeets Harvested 96 87 98 92
Sunflowers Harvested 70 53 77 65
Winter Wheat Planted 91 87 92 91
Winter Wheat Emerged 74 67 78 77

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 9 14 33 39 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 14 34 40 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 11 38 40 5

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 8
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 08, 2021 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 04, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/04/2021 10/28/2021 11/05/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 1,596 2,295 9,743 12,162
CORN 563,163 671,085 692,565 6,037,008 7,602,804
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 24 413
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 100 200 1,296
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 7,698 77,108 141,650 504,072 790,064
SOYBEANS 2,646,892 2,607,534 2,852,420 13,851,236 20,025,864
SUNFLOWER 0 96 0 432 0
WHEAT 231,854 130,721 304,239 9,899,442 11,707,368
Total 3,449,607 3,488,140 3,993,293 30,302,157 40,139,971
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 10, 2021 1 Nov 08, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 10, 2021 26 Oct 29, 2021

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Tuesday.
U.S. 2021 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2020
Corn Production 15,040 14,778-15,222 15,019 14,111
Corn Yield 176.8 174.5-178.9 176.5 171.4
Harvested Acres 85.1 84.6-85.3 85.1 82.3
Soybean Production 4,480 4,408-4,536 4,448 4,216
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.0-52.5 51.5 51.0
Harvested Acres 86.4 85.9-86.7 86.4 82.6
Corn Soybean
Harvested Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
AgriSompo North America 15,037 176.7 85.1 4,466 51.7 86.4
AgriSource 15,222 178.9 85.1 4,503 52.1 86.4
Allendale 15,073 176.7 85.3 4,485 51.7 86.7
DC Analysis 15,062 177.0 85.1 4,475 51.8 86.4
Doane 15,060 177.0 85.1 4,500 52.1 86.4
EDF Man 15,148 178.0 85.1 4,536 52.5 86.4
Futures Intl 15,043 176.8 85.1 4,457 51.6 86.4
Grain Cycles 14,966 175.9 85.1 4,473 51.8 86.4
Linn Group 15,045 177.0 85.0 4,467 51.7 86.4
Sid Love Consulting 14,957 176.8 84.6 4,450 51.8 85.9
Midland Research 14,970 175.9 85.1 4,494 52.0 86.4
Midwest Market Solutions 14,778 174.9 84.8 4,408 51.0 86.4
Northstar 14,978 176.0 85.1 4,475 51.8 86.4
RJO Brien 14,850 174.5 4,408 51.0
RMC 15,046 176.8 85.1 4,484 51.9 86.4
StoneX 15,119 177.7 85.1 4,490 51.9 86.4
US Commodities 15,148 178.0 85.1 4,527 52.4 86.4
Western Milling 15,190 178.5 85.1 4,489 52.0 86.4
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,063 177.0 85.1 4,527 52.4 86.4

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2021-22
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 1,482 1,320-1,675 1,500
Soybeans 360 285-449 320
Wheat 581 555-617 580
2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,550 395 555
AgriSource 1,675 366 575
Allendale 1,355 328 595
DC Analysis 1,450 370 580
Doane 1,510 350 590
EDF Man 1,534 423 580
Futures Intl 1,524 320 580
Grain Cycles 1,497 372 580
Linn Group 1,320 374 575
Sid Love Consulting 1,438 322 580
Midland Research 1,400 380 580
Midwest Market Solutions 1,513 285 585
Northstar 1,370 335 570
RJO Brien 1,428 300 605
RMC 1,445 356 580
StoneX 1,576 371 570
US Commodities 1,504 449 565
Western Milling 1,519 374 617
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,544 364 580

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 290.6 290.0-292.0 290.0
Soybeans 99.7 99.2-101.2 99.2
Wheat 287.8 286.0-288.4 288.4
2021-22
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 301.4 297.0-303.9 301.7
Soybeans 105.7 104.6-106.9 104.6
Wheat 277.1 274.0-282.0 277.2
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 298.1 104.6 275.7
EDF Man 290.0 99.2 288.4 301.0 105.0 282.0
Futures Intl 303.0 106.0 274.0
Linn 297.0 105.5 279.0
Midwest Market Solutions 291.5 100.2 287.5 302.5 105.4 279.1
Northstar 299.0 105.0 275.0
RMC 292.0 101.2 286.0 302.5 106.4 276.0
StoneX 290.2 99.2 288.2 303.9 106.3 277.1
US Commodities 290.0 99.2 288.4 303.0 106.9 278.0
Western Milling 290.0 99.2 288.4 303.0 105.5 277.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 302.3 106.2 275.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mostly a little higher yesterday s the world market has held strong and as no real bearish news is expected today from the WASDE and USDA production reports. Trends are still generally sideways for the short term in all three markets. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 763, 745, and 744 December, with resistance at 780, 790, and 798 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed . Support is at 772, 768, and 748 December, with resistance at 796, 804, and 814 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1005, 984, and 980 December, and resistance is at 1034, 1060, and 1086 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on follow through buying as the recent demand woes are considered to be factored into the price for now. Weekly chart trends are sideways but imply futures could test resistance at the 1400 area basis the nearest futures contract in the near term. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1350, 1331, and 1301 January and resistance is at 1368, 1372, and 1378 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats both closed lower in anticipation of the USDA reports that will be released later today. There are fears of a bearish report as production is expected to increase a little bit and demand could get cut. But demand for export and for ethanol consumption has been great and no cuts are needed. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 544 December. Support is at 548, 540, and 533 December, and resistance is at 569, 573, and 582 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed to down with objectives of 686, 627, and 486 December. Support is at 708, 686, and 649 December, and resistance is at 737, 775, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower again yesterday on what appeared to be widespread speculative selling as wire reports indicated that the Brazil Soybean basis was now showing overall prices less than US values to places like China. Th trade anticipates increased production and reduced export demand in the WASDE and USDA production reports that will be released later today. Soybeans trends are down on the daily charts. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1177 January. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1156 January, and resistance is at 1227, 1243, and 1261 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 328.00, 323.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 341.00 344.00, and 347.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5680 December. Support is at 5700, 5650, and 5420 December, with resistance at 5850, 6050, and 6140 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today as Soybean Oil moved lower and caused demand concerns for Palm Oil. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed a little higher and could have topped out for now as the harvest is starting to wind down. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed Support is at 961.00, 949.00, and 938.00 January, with resistance at 982.00, 984.00, and 993.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4760, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4970, 5080, and 5220 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, some showers likely late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 998.90 25.00 Jan 2022 dn 4.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,032.40 55.00 Jan 2022 up 3.50
Basis: Vancouver 1,053.40 80.00 Jan 2022 up 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1337.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1277.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1190.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1340.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1280.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1192.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1087.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1310.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1175.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,300.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 500.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.147)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 239,742 lots, or 15.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,312 6,348 6,286 6,286 6,409 6,302 -107 168 1,401
Jan-22 6,347 6,375 6,270 6,362 6,375 6,317 -58 178,370 124,534
Mar-22 6,346 6,361 6,254 6,327 6,369 6,298 -71 47,027 76,518
May-22 6,289 6,300 6,205 6,280 6,308 6,251 -57 6,658 8,021
Jul-22 6,226 6,241 6,150 6,216 6,243 6,189 -54 7,374 9,174
Sep-22 6,062 6,127 6,042 6,106 6,100 6,058 -42 145 207
Corn
Turnover: 900,170 lots, or 24.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,631 2,690 59 500 281
Jan-22 2,690 2,724 2,684 2,720 2,690 2,708 18 640,872 784,484
Mar-22 2,697 2,725 2,687 2,721 2,697 2,706 9 53,981 213,620
May-22 2,709 2,728 2,700 2,725 2,712 2,716 4 155,904 259,744
Jul-22 2,713 2,721 2,700 2,718 2,710 2,711 1 44,844 78,151
Sep-22 2,710 2,717 2,693 2,715 2,713 2,706 -7 4,069 9,089
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,053,497 lots, or 31.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,152 3,152 3,146 3,146 3,175 3,150 -25 45 2,191
Dec-21 3,190 3,215 3,157 3,209 3,189 3,191 2 2,186 13,904
Jan-22 3,079 3,103 3,045 3,091 3,070 3,077 7 700,329 1,015,462
Mar-22 2,957 2,973 2,928 2,967 2,960 2,953 -7 28,533 317,886
May-22 2,928 2,935 2,890 2,926 2,923 2,914 -9 244,551 814,056
Jul-22 2,936 2,939 2,901 2,927 2,930 2,920 -10 44,026 150,038
Aug-22 3,003 3,010 2,974 2,998 3,003 2,993 -10 17,286 66,808
Sep-22 3,005 3,007 2,975 2,997 2,997 2,991 -6 16,541 55,778
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,115,848 lots, or 99.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,804 10,804 10,804 0 0 1,821
Dec-21 9,502 9,594 9,168 9,274 9,464 9,420 -44 1,577 7,763
Jan-22 9,254 9,284 8,830 8,938 9,094 9,044 -50 989,018 333,463
Feb-22 9,002 9,088 8,644 8,748 8,912 8,844 -68 15,988 83,364
Mar-22 8,798 8,808 8,404 8,488 8,644 8,596 -48 10,973 43,857
Apr-22 8,546 8,562 8,196 8,264 8,410 8,378 -32 10,572 29,360
May-22 8,330 8,336 7,980 8,060 8,170 8,156 -14 85,926 83,470
Jun-22 8,122 8,134 7,810 7,878 7,992 7,966 -26 1,065 6,100
Jul-22 – – – 7,980 7,980 7,980 0 0 978
Aug-22 7,806 7,828 7,580 7,600 7,660 7,794 134 324 3,389
Sep-22 7,732 7,736 7,430 7,462 7,566 7,574 8 398 680
Oct-22 7,748 7,748 7,530 7,530 7,474 7,664 190 7 158
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,034,237 lots, or 94.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 9,932 9,932 9,932 0 0 1,000
Dec-21 9,700 9,700 9,330 9,394 9,794 9,664 -130 1,342 6,732
Jan-22 9,420 9,442 9,032 9,112 9,290 9,218 -72 886,995 387,015
Mar-22 8,940 9,000 8,592 8,662 8,860 8,776 -84 18,557 118,182
May-22 8,640 8,688 8,318 8,388 8,540 8,486 -54 107,481 185,852
Jul-22 8,358 8,376 8,066 8,118 8,234 8,194 -40 7,464 73,312
Aug-22 8,290 8,300 8,014 8,080 8,166 8,150 -16 10,564 24,304
Sep-22 8,202 8,250 7,924 8,002 8,092 8,090 -2 1,834 2,077
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322