About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher last week but closed well off the highs and close to the lows of the week as the market apparently bought some Cotton. The increased available supply has yet to reach to certified stocks. The export sales report was not strong last week and the market could be concerned about demand moving forward. WASDE releases its monthly updates next week and USDA will also release new production estimates. Trends are still up on the carts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast should see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 113.23 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 17,617 bales, from 18,357 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 12940 December. Support is at 11580, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12170, 12280 and 12400 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 02, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 384,086
: Positions :
: 92,438 8,326 96,617 74,542 254,590 95,907 12,736 359,504 372,270: 24,582 11,817
: Changes from: October 26, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,705) :
: 2,850 -1,047 8,231 -467 2,552 -125 1,069 10,490 10,805: 215 -100
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.1 2.2 25.2 19.4 66.3 25.0 3.3 93.6 96.9: 6.4 3.1
: Total Traders: 302 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 145 32 81 59 67 47 16 276 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Wasde cotton survey results\
2021-22: Avg Low High Oct. Avg vs Prior
US Production 18.04 17.75 18.50 18.00 0.044
US Exports 15.59 15.25 16.00 15.50 0.089
US End Stocks 3.16 2.90 3.50 3.20 -0.038
World Production 120.09 118.00 121.00 120.28 -0.189
World Consumption 123.32 122.00 124.00 123.40 -0.081
World End Stocks 87.08 86.13 88.38 87.13 -0.047

Analyst Estimates: US Production US Exports US Ending Stocks World Production World Consumption World Ending Stocks
AgriSompo 17.95 15.50 3.11 n/a n/a n/a
Doane 18.00 15.80 2.90 120.50 123.50 87.20
Higby Barrett 18.00 15.75 2.95 121.00 124.00 87.25
Love Consulting 17.80 15.50 3.00 120.00 123.40 86.90
Price Futures Group 18.50 15.50 3.50 121.00 124.00 87.50
Rose Commodity Group 17.75 15.25 3.50 120.75 122.75 88.38
Texas A&M; Robinson 18.00 15.50 3.20 119.28 123.40 86.13
Varner Bros. 18.50 16.00 3.20 118.00 122.00 86.30
Wedbush Securities 17.90 15.50 3.10 120.20 123.50 87.00

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again last week and chart trends are down. The move lower still appears to be overdone at this time. The hurricane season is over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost zero so speculators have gotten out of longs and are going short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida FCOJ inventories are 12.7% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 115.00 January. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 123.00, 125.00, and 127.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 2, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,209 :
: Positions :
: 5,343 7,088 1,779 167 0 850 1,875 167 1,558 796 1,105 :
: Changes from: October 26, 2021 :
: -157 -975 -6 44 0 -27 476 10 201 9 -47 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 40.5 53.7 13.5 1.3 0.0 6.4 14.2 1.3 11.8 6.0 8.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 15 13 5 . 0 4 9 . 19 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week in chart related trading as futures could not hold new highs for the move. The fundamentals are still considered bullish. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Brazil also has less Coffee this year due to a freeze earlier in the year and dry weather at flowering time a year ago. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts but are up on the weekly charts in London.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.849 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 184.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 199.00, 187.00, and 181.00 December. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 212.00, 215.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2100 and 2090 January. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2090 January, and resistance is at 2280, 2310, and 2340 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 02, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 388,185
: Positions :
: 55,712 12,848 142,887 103,120 205,733 73,646 19,122 375,366 380,591: 12,819 7,594
: Changes from: October 26, 2021 (Change in open interest: 4,207) :
: -890 1,104 1,502 3,278 309 -240 1,423 3,650 4,338: 557 -131
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 3.3 36.8 26.6 53.0 19.0 4.9 96.7 98.0: 3.3 2.0
: Total Traders: 446 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 175 63 143 118 129 44 19 395 314:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/02/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
124,867 51,339 82,013 4,740 9,418 1,893
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.1% 65.7% 3.8% 7.5% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 41 42 10 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
37,075 2,178 6,496 1,624 3,759 16,125
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
29.7% 1.7% 5.2% 1.3% 3.0% 12.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 5 10 12 10 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,575 2,985
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 2.4%

DJ Rising Input Costs Likely to Crimp Coffee Supply — Market Talk
1338 GMT – While coffee farmers are benefiting from high prices, rising input costs are hitting their margins and could slow investment in new production, the International Coffee Organization says. Coffee futures are up 0.2% at $2.04 a pound, hovering close to their highest level in seven years, thanks to poor harvest. Despite the high prices, “increasing transaction and production costs, including fertilizers and labour costs, along with substantial increases in the transport costs are expected to […] slow down investments in production,” the ICO says. Less investment in supply could support prices even further for the soft commodity which tends to see strong, inelastic demand. (william.horner@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher and near the highs of the week and as crude oil futures were firm and as supplies of Sugar remain a problem. Ethanol demand for the US was strong. London closed a little lower for the week. Weekly and daily charts show mixed trends. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2050, 2110, and 2170 March. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2020, and 2060 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 498.00, and 492.00 March, and resistance is at 508.00, 515.00, and 523.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 02, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,059,937
: Positions :
: 171,257 52,235 224,073 304,224 653,428 264,227 77,556 963,781 1,007,291: 96,156 52,645
: Changes from: October 26, 2021 (Change in open interest: 8,089) :
: 6,301 -604 3,616 2,254 5,289 -1,636 -1,273 10,536 7,027: -2,446 1,062
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 4.9 21.1 28.7 61.6 24.9 7.3 90.9 95.0: 9.1 5.0
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 36 66 75 70 41 20 217 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/02/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
75,971 40,241 60,316 7,044 3,787 2,607
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.0% 79.4% 9.3% 5.0% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
99 34 39 7 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,893 1,847 3,647 1,105 470 509
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.6% 2.4% 4.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 4 12 6 3 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,925 2,788
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.8% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as ideas of increasing supplies are still around. Trends are down in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Ivory Coast exports were 3.4% higher for beans and about 2% higher for powder, butter, and chocolate in 2020-21. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.279 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2400 and 2000 December. Support is at 2400, 2330, and 2310 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1640, 1620, and 1610 December, with resistance at 1690, 1710, and 1740 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 02, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 288,949
: Positions :
: 25,016 39,501 64,593 128,683 152,768 58,435 24,029 276,727 280,890: 12,222 8,059
: Changes from: October 26, 2021 (Change in open interest: 7,720) :
: -2,106 -152 1,014 5,525 -344 2,972 7,076 7,406 7,594: 315 126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 13.7 22.4 44.5 52.9 20.2 8.3 95.8 97.2: 4.2 2.8
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 73 82 49 39 31 19 195 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/02/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
322,166 183,477 250,180 44,958 6,022 11,816
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.0% 77.7% 14.0% 1.9% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 46 42 16 6 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,439 12,771 6,730 6,808 604 31,207
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.7% 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.2% 9.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 20 16 13 6 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,731 2,836
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322