About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Tuesday.
U.S. 2021 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2020
Corn Production 15,040 14,778-15,222 15,019 14,111
Corn Yield 176.8 174.5-178.9 176.5 171.4
Harvested Acres 85.1 84.6-85.3 85.1 82.3
Soybean Production 4,480 4,408-4,536 4,448 4,216
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.0-52.5 51.5 51.0
Harvested Acres 86.4 85.9-86.7 86.4 82.6
Corn Soybean
Harvested Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
AgriSompo North America 15,037 176.7 85.1 4,466 51.7 86.4
AgriSource 15,222 178.9 85.1 4,503 52.1 86.4
Allendale 15,073 176.7 85.3 4,485 51.7 86.7
DC Analysis 15,062 177.0 85.1 4,475 51.8 86.4
Doane 15,060 177.0 85.1 4,500 52.1 86.4
EDF Man 15,148 178.0 85.1 4,536 52.5 86.4
Futures Intl 15,043 176.8 85.1 4,457 51.6 86.4
Grain Cycles 14,966 175.9 85.1 4,473 51.8 86.4
Linn Group 15,045 177.0 85.0 4,467 51.7 86.4
Sid Love Consulting 14,957 176.8 84.6 4,450 51.8 85.9
Midland Research 14,970 175.9 85.1 4,494 52.0 86.4
Midwest Market Solutions 14,778 174.9 84.8 4,408 51.0 86.4
Northstar 14,978 176.0 85.1 4,475 51.8 86.4
RJO Brien 14,850 174.5 4,408 51.0
RMC 15,046 176.8 85.1 4,484 51.9 86.4
StoneX 15,119 177.7 85.1 4,490 51.9 86.4
US Commodities 15,148 178.0 85.1 4,527 52.4 86.4
Western Milling 15,190 178.5 85.1 4,489 52.0 86.4
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,063 177.0 85.1 4,527 52.4 86.4

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2021-22
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 1,482 1,320-1,675 1,500
Soybeans 360 285-449 320
Wheat 581 555-617 580
2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,550 395 555
AgriSource 1,675 366 575
Allendale 1,355 328 595
DC Analysis 1,450 370 580
Doane 1,510 350 590
EDF Man 1,534 423 580
Futures Intl 1,524 320 580
Grain Cycles 1,497 372 580
Linn Group 1,320 374 575
Sid Love Consulting 1,438 322 580
Midland Research 1,400 380 580
Midwest Market Solutions 1,513 285 585
Northstar 1,370 335 570
RJO Brien 1,428 300 605
RMC 1,445 356 580
StoneX 1,576 371 570
US Commodities 1,504 449 565
Western Milling 1,519 374 617
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,544 364 580

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 290.6 290.0-292.0 290.0
Soybeans 99.7 99.2-101.2 99.2
Wheat 287.8 286.0-288.4 288.4
2021-22
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 301.4 297.0-303.9 301.7
Soybeans 105.7 104.6-106.9 104.6
Wheat 277.1 274.0-282.0 277.2
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 298.1 104.6 275.7
EDF Man 290.0 99.2 288.4 301.0 105.0 282.0
Futures Intl 303.0 106.0 274.0
Linn 297.0 105.5 279.0
Midwest Market Solutions 291.5 100.2 287.5 302.5 105.4 279.1
Northstar 299.0 105.0 275.0
RMC 292.0 101.2 286.0 302.5 106.4 276.0
StoneX 290.2 99.2 288.2 303.9 106.3 277.1
US Commodities 290.0 99.2 288.4 303.0 106.9 278.0
Western Milling 290.0 99.2 288.4 303.0 105.5 277.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 302.3 106.2 275.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday on follow through selling. Trends are still up in all three markets but the price action earlier this week implies that a few days of correction trading are possible before the uptrend resumes. The weekly export sales report was a little stronger yesterday. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 763, 745, and 744 December, with resistance at 790, 807, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 772, 768, and 748 December, with resistance at 804, 814, and 818 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1011, 1008, and 984 December, and resistance is at 1060, 1086, and 1094 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading as the recent demand woes are considered to be factored into the price for now. Short term trends have turned mixed on the charts. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. There was little in the way of news for participants to react to but the weekly export sales report showed weaker demand. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1331, 1301, and 1284 January and resistance is at 1368, 1372, and 1378 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats both closed lower yesterday in more correction trading. It was a correction trade for the Corn. The export sales report was strong yesterday and the sales pace is currently at or just above the USDA target pace. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 554, 548, and 540 December, and resistance is at 573, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed to with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 728, 723, and 708 December, and resistance is at 775, 780, and 786 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as wire reports indicated that the Brazil Soybean basis was now showing overall prices less than US values to places like China. Soybeans trends are starting to turn down on the daily charts. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1217 and 1177 January. Support is at 1216, 1195, and 1180 January, and resistance is at 1237, 1253, and 1281 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 and 346.00 December. Support is at 334.00, 328.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 341.00 344.00, and 347.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5900, 5870, and 5680 December. Support is at 5920, 59850, and 5830 December, with resistance at 6050, 6140, and 6240 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower as a correction day finally hit and as the harvest is starting to wind down. Some of the selling was noted in sympathy with Chicago. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 971.00, 963.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 993.00, 1002.00, and 1008.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4850, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5090, 5220, and 5680 January.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 4
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Oct. 31, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2779.4 656.6 303.0 460.3 45.2 1641.6 319.5 59.5 7230.2
Week Ago 2819.0 745.0 321.9 512.8 52.9 1629.5 330.8 42.0 7446.7
Year Ago 2442.3 850.1 347.1 553.2 95.6 1699.9 336.0 70.5 7596.7
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 432.3 59.3 43.7 107.0 9.6 406.1 16.3 11.3 1162.3
Week Ago 442.8 107.8 59.5 140.8 13.5 420.9 14.4 10.3 1328.6
To Date 4431.7 989.0 637.9 1857.5 76.4 4989.0 973.4 93.7 15241.0
Year Ago 5507.2 1509.6 962.0 1477.3 142.8 5996.7 1602.6 104.7 18909.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 259.7 112.5 8.5 93.8 2.1 229.3 12.9 17.1 1183.6
Week Ago 250.3 82.4 0.3 138.0 3.8 251.5 11.0 11.8 1226.1
To Date 4550.2 907.6 100.3 1087.3 9.9 2150.8 684.1 61.5 11836.5
Year Ago 6504.4 1654.4 221.6 913.4 49.0 3527.5 1148.2 69.8 16555.5
EXPORTS
This Week 332.9 121.0 41.5 37.5 2.3 111.5 2.2 0.0 946.4
Week Ago 185.5 4.1 18.2 231.5 1.5 274.6 72.2 8.5 1180.6
To Date 3291.9 860.2 417.3 962.4 16.9 1555.5 643.0 43.9 9033.0
Year Ago 5198.8 1097.0 629.5 907.0 60.0 3126.3 1136.7 41.4 13701.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 89.6 5.8 19.4 38.4 2.0 200.4 5.2 20.3 473.3
Week Ago 77.1 9.1 14.6 47.7 1.2 202.3 5.9 14.1 396.4
To Date 1229.0 69.5 202.6 454.9 13.9 2385.3 76.2 226.3 5114.9
Year Ago 1309.7 112.4 187.6 291.6 16.1 2600.6 49.0 219.8 5263.7
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and near to above normal next week.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1025.70 35.00 Jan. 2022 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 1033.70 55.00 Jan. 2022 dn 12.00
Basis: Vancouver 1058.70 80.00 Jan. 2022 dn 12.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1357.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1302.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1217.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1115.00 -57.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1360.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1305.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1220.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1117.50 -57.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1330.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1200.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,400.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 504.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.158)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 256,228 lots, or 16.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,400 6,486 6,370 6,486 6,371 6,416 45 486 2,041
Jan-22 6,423 6,517 6,405 6,508 6,372 6,463 91 191,944 174,753
Mar-22 6,432 6,508 6,400 6,494 6,378 6,458 80 45,982 78,445
May-22 6,379 6,433 6,341 6,419 6,333 6,395 62 5,560 7,750
Jul-22 6,338 6,373 6,283 6,363 6,263 6,336 73 12,152 9,582
Sep-22 6,202 6,233 6,168 6,222 6,152 6,206 54 104 208
Corn
Turnover: 759,742 lots, or 20.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,636 2,660 2,636 2,655 2,645 2,652 7 61 3,217
Jan-22 2,676 2,700 2,652 2,674 2,669 2,676 7 550,266 772,497
Mar-22 2,691 2,707 2,662 2,678 2,682 2,684 2 48,834 207,190
May-22 2,713 2,733 2,689 2,701 2,707 2,712 5 124,611 213,548
Jul-22 2,716 2,731 2,694 2,705 2,709 2,712 3 32,926 75,499
Sep-22 2,717 2,730 2,695 2,700 2,714 2,711 -3 3,044 7,250
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,410,037 lots, or 42.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,249 3,249 3,249 3,249 3,232 3,249 17 1 4,386
Dec-21 3,243 3,265 3,156 3,182 3,251 3,215 -36 12,073 18,415
Jan-22 3,140 3,144 3,033 3,051 3,128 3,086 -42 931,409 1,085,261
Mar-22 3,007 3,016 2,928 2,939 3,002 2,980 -22 37,536 314,111
May-22 2,972 2,979 2,899 2,906 2,963 2,935 -28 342,593 794,011
Jul-22 2,970 2,981 2,903 2,912 2,966 2,940 -26 39,468 143,359
Aug-22 3,037 3,050 2,976 2,984 3,037 3,016 -21 31,247 63,986
Sep-22 3,035 3,048 2,975 2,982 3,034 3,002 -32 15,710 51,420
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,081,418 lots, or 10.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,386 10,386 10,386 0 0 1,821
Dec-21 9,984 9,984 9,700 9,804 10,060 9,866 -194 8,135 9,849
Jan-22 9,610 9,644 9,340 9,476 9,710 9,476 -234 934,836 348,105
Feb-22 9,368 9,440 9,142 9,282 9,532 9,262 -270 36,012 83,342
Mar-22 9,176 9,176 8,884 9,010 9,206 8,994 -212 12,222 42,215
Apr-22 8,902 8,918 8,650 8,754 8,964 8,742 -222 11,637 28,116
May-22 8,636 8,672 8,414 8,510 8,706 8,530 -176 75,209 75,225
Jun-22 8,456 8,468 8,232 8,348 8,526 8,318 -208 2,454 5,443
Jul-22 8,270 8,332 8,230 8,240 8,458 8,276 -182 10 1,232
Aug-22 8,170 8,174 8,050 8,050 8,336 8,126 -210 691 3,106
Sep-22 8,050 8,050 7,802 7,880 8,086 7,922 -164 211 594
Oct-22 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,950 7,896 -54 1 148
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,175,987 lots, or 11.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 9,932 10,014 9,932 -82 0 1,000
Dec-21 10,054 10,070 9,772 9,870 10,138 9,952 -186 2,521 9,226
Jan-22 9,760 9,792 9,502 9,614 9,882 9,630 -252 951,270 407,250
Mar-22 9,356 9,378 9,104 9,192 9,460 9,212 -248 26,382 114,202
May-22 8,982 9,044 8,780 8,854 9,070 8,888 -182 141,872 176,451
Jul-22 8,694 8,720 8,452 8,544 8,778 8,548 -230 32,145 70,673
Aug-22 8,568 8,664 8,380 8,480 8,730 8,486 -244 20,683 23,049
Sep-22 8,588 8,608 8,348 8,436 8,636 8,458 -178 1,114 1,984
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322