About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. September Coffee, Cocoa Imports-November 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2021—- —-Aug 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 99,848,523 220,165,993 133,130,029 293,551,714
coffee, roasted 8,425,725 18,578,724 8,219,129 18,123,179
coffee, soluble
instant 3,956,015 8,723,013 5,258,280 11,594,507
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 29,820,562 65,754,339 13,493,461 29,753,082
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,268,941 5,003,015 2,562,575 5,650,478
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 6,091,189 13,431,072 8,767,382 19,332,077
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,411,824 11,933,072 6,697,770 14,768,583
cocoa paste
defatted 5,491,821 12,109,465 3,940,005 8,687,711
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,600,209 18,963,461 10,767,145 23,741,555
cocoa powder,
sweetened 53,749 118,517 52,960 116,777
confectioners
coating 4,468,354 9,852,721 4,428,817 9,765,541
candy containing
chocolate 11,600,149 25,578,329 13,597,680 29,982,884

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher despite weakness in Chicago and in Crude Oil futures yesterday. Trends are still up on the carts and the fundamentals have not really changed. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast should see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 115.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,357 bales, from 18,357 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 139,100 bales this year and 20,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 31,800 bales this year and 1,800 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12940 December. Support is at 11290, 11100, and 10900 December, with resistance of 12170, 12280 and 12400 December.

DJ U.S. September Cotton Exports-Nov 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
Upland, under 1 inch 1,750,805 3,408,519 6,415,077 12,595,484
1 to 1 1/8 inch 49,439,207 84,888,115 88,699,282 71,771,775
upland 1 1/8 and over 3,985,500 3,157,815 7,953,084 108,471,555
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 66,999,017 117,954,392 136,945,823 7,341,403
All cotton 122,174,529 209,408,841 240,013,266 200,180,217
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
Upland, under 1 inch 8,041 15,655 29,464 57,851
1 to 1 1/8 inch 227,072 389,888 407,392 329,645
upland 1 1/8 and over 18,305 14,504 36,528 498,206
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 307,724 541,760 628,987 33,719
All cotton 561,143 961,807 1,102,372 919,420

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower once again yesterday on follow through selling and chart trends are down. However, futures are not about oversold and could rally for the next couple of days. It looks like the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost zero so speculators have gotten out of longs and are going short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 115.00 January. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 123.00, 125.00, and 127.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Nov 3
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
10/9/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
10/9/2021 10/10/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 258.48 -12.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.82 4.5%
Total 232.73 264.30 -11.9%
Pack
Bulk 0.52 0.74 -30.4%
Retail/Institutional 0.93 0.82 12.7%
Total Pack 1.45 1.57 -7.8%
Reprocessed -1.45 -1.57 -7.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 0.00
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.06 -0.02 208.7%
Imports – Foreign 0.50 0.24 107.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.45 0.00 0.00
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.83 0.35 138.3%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.05 -59.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bu 227.46 258.27 -11.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.01 6.64 5.5%
Total 234.47 264.91 -11.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.99 3.95 51.8%
Exports 0.52 0.24 121.4%
Total (Bulk) 6.51 4.18 55.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.30 1.08 20.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.30 1.08 20.3%
Total Movement 7.81 5.26 48.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 220.95 254.09 -13.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.71 5.56 2.7%
Ending Inventory 226.66 259.65 -12.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
9-Oct-21 10-Oct-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 258.48 -12.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.82 4.5%
Total 232.73 264.30 -11.9%
Pack
Bulk 0.52 0.74 -30.4%
Retail/Institutional 0.93 0.82 12.7%
Total Pack 1.45 1.57 -7.8%
Reprocessed -1.45 -1.57 -7.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 0.00
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.06 -0.02 208.7%
Imports – Foreign 0.50 0.24 107.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 0.00
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.45 0.00 0.00
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.83 0.35 138.3%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.05 -59.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 227.46 258.27 -11.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.01 6.64 5.5%
Total 234.47 264.91 -11.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 5.99 3.95 51.8%
Domestic 0.52 0.24 121.4%
Exports 6.51 4.18 55.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.30 1.08 20.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.30 1.08 20.3%
Total Movement 7.81 5.26 48.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 220.95 254.09 -13.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.71 5.56 2.7%
Ending Inventory 226.66 259.65 -12.7%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Brazil also has less Coffee this year due to a freeze earlier in the year and dry weather at flowering time a year ago. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with near average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts but are up on the weekly charts in London.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.864 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 188.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 197.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 215.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2090 January, and resistance is at 2280, 2310, and 2340 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower as crude oil futures worked lower. There was a surprise increase in supply for the US and OPEC+1 is meeting to decide on production increases. Ethanol demand for the US was strong but could suffer if Crude Oil futures move lower. Weekly and daily charts show mixed trends. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UNICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Production is now estimated at 30.5 million tons by a producers group there, down 1.6^ from earlier industry estimates. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1910, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 498.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March, and resistance is at 508.00, 515.00, and 523.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and made new three month lows on ideas of increasing supplies. Trends are down in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Ivory Coast exports were 3.4% higher for beans and about 2% higher for powder, butter, and chocolate in 2020-21. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost but the boost has not been as strong as hoped for earlier.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.290 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2400 and 2000 December. Support is at 2400, 2330, and 2310 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1690, 1710, and 1740 December

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322