About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 4
For the week ended Oct 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 400.1 0.0 13007.2 16756.9 4313.6 0.0
hrw 206.0 0.0 5160.1 6117.6 1887.2 0.0
srw 54.2 0.0 1908.4 1356.3 600.0 0.0
hrs 73.0 0.0 3452.9 4725.1 1025.4 0.0
white 66.9 0.0 2336.2 4017.0 728.7 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 149.7 540.9 72.4 0.0
corn 1223.8 0.0 31008.5 33189.2 25115.0 337.4
soybeans 1863.9 0.0 32315.4 48431.8 21422.7 19.8
soymeal 226.6 -0.2 4682.8 4471.9 3769.9 36.9
soyoil 11.2 0.0 133.8 228.0 112.7 0.1
upland cotton 139.1 20.6 8508.8 8865.2 6450.3 856.9
pima cotton 31.8 1.8 299.4 427.3 215.2 1.8
sorghum 265.6 0.0 3017.4 3641.8 2748.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.1 42.0 22.8 0.0
rice 29.8 0.0 1107.7 1229.3 445.6 0.0

DJ U.S. September Grain Imports-November 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2021—- —-Aug 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 4,000 8,820 1,421,246 3,133,847
spring wheat 3,205,086 7,067,215 8,039,092 17,726,198
winter wheat 292,722 645,452 14,078,529 31,043,156
wheat/meslin 148,841,310 328,195,089 47,179,442 104,030,670
TOTAL WHEAT 152,343,118 335,916,575 70,718,309 155,933,871
barley 2,038,192 4,494,213 4,129,866 9,106,355
oats 257,308 567,364 412,933 910,517
corn 44,676,566 98,511,828 52,321,683 115,369,311
other corn 2,386,595 5,262,442 2,232,263 4,922,140
TOTAL CORN 47,063,161 103,774,270 54,553,946 120,291,451

DJ U.S. Sep Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-November 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2021—- —-Aug 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 47,334,067 104,371,618 34,308,987 75,651,316
palm kernel oil 34,829,655 76,799,389 16,089,525 35,477,403
palm oil 266,585,957 587,822,035 93,308,427 205,745,082
soybean 22,261,428 49,086,449 12,722,067 28,052,158
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,984,934 35,246,779 19,292,939 42,540,930
rapeseed oil
edible 163,887,310 361,371,519 169,386,306 373,496,805
rapeseed oil,
inedible 2 4 27,164 59,897

DJ U.S. September Grain Exports-Nov 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
Barley 1,566,000 1,276,000 1,251,000 527,846
Corn /1 2,550,254,000 3,443,355,000 5,473,110,000 3,803,109,000
Sorghum 242,802,000 213,144,000 429,499,000 465,998,000
Oats 5,389,105 2,677,936 2,207,741 2,325,956
Rye 88,150 881,877 1,168,900 874,586
Wheat /1 2,330,004,072 2,626,217,588 2,052,111,704 2,685,247,633
wheat flour /1 20,721,954 20,591,842 18,948,866 21,131,344
Malt 41,726,048 37,065,080 30,723,643 27,905,429
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
Barley 71,925 58,606 57,457 24,244
Corn /1 100,398,035 135,557,507 215,464,612 149,720,251
Sorghum 9,558,594 8,391,023 16,908,455 18,345,343
Oats 371,276 184,493 152,100 160,244
Rye 3,470 34,718 46,017 34,431
Wheat /1 85,612,116 96,495,987 75,401,424 98,664,948
wheat flour /1 456,841 453,972 417,751 465,866
Malt 91,990,205 81,714,528 67,734,050 61,520,951
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. September Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Nov 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
soybeans 2,169,525,812 1,311,638,838 947,224,676 7,780,921,671
soyoil 15,868,077 11,405,427 16,358,398 81,731,593
crude 8,279,397 3,985,513 8,823,378 68,742,342
refined 296,581 186,777 181,410 115,908
other/1 7,040,576 7,029,118 7,114,779 12,464,346
hydrogenated 251,523 204,019 238,831 408,997
cottonseed oil 1,228,681 1,150,643 1,460,328 2,684,064
crude 20,276 61,131 3,373 166,451
refined 540,893 755,738 963,890 1,208,984
other/1 498,806 303,055 427,876 1,308,629
hydrogenated 168,706 30,719 65,189 0
sunseeds 247,404 47,900 46,942 31,903
sunseed oil 4,030,630 4,680,980 6,228,520 6,379,243
rapeseed 15,463,119 9,477,981 9,688,316 14,085,020
rapeseed oil 19,395,507 13,721,529 14,053,684 10,482,690
crude 9,446,782 6,438,964 6,028,913 4,344,955
refined 9,948,725 7,282,565 8,024,771 6,137,735
linseed meal 153,314 89,023 0 89,054
cottonseed meal 6,097,562 2,732,064 7,042,445 8,294,641
soymeal 589,615,679 674,886,789 694,505,587 724,907,703
soymeal/flour 129,699,483 187,267,631 264,391,249 220,520,185
soymeal hulls 5,590,000 7,146,000 22,273,000 15,012,000
lard 3,848,628 7,758,072 3,511,695 2,168,713
edible tallow 9,177,560 8,318,415 6,301,557 5,909,151
inedible tallow 12,267,647 10,554,584 19,276,670 23,494,657
ch white grease 44,248 23,905 0 90,133
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Sep 21 Aug 21 Jul 21 Sep 20
soybeans 79,715,609 48,193,983 34,804,192 285,896,996
soyoil 34,983,128 25,144,667 36,064,100 180,187,350
crude 18,252,949 8,786,554 19,452,222 151,550,948
refined 653,849 411,773 399,941 255,533
other/1 15,521,816 15,496,555 15,685,405 27,479,184
hydrogenated 554,513 449,785 526,532 901,684
cottonseed oil 2,708,778 2,536,734 3,219,473 5,917,349
crude 44,701 134,771 7,436 366,962
refined 1,192,465 1,666,117 2,125,014 2,665,354
other/1 1,099,679 668,122 943,305 2,885,034
hydrogenated 371,933 67,724 143,717 0
sunseeds 545,433 105,601 103,489 70,334
sunseed oil 8,886,020 10,319,796 13,731,538 14,063,826
rapeseed 34,090,348 20,895,375 21,359,084 31,052,159
rapeseed oil 42,759,781 30,250,798 30,983,075 23,110,379
crude 20,826,593 14,195,488 13,291,480 9,578,988
refined 21,933,188 16,055,310 17,691,595 13,531,392
linseed meal 169 98 0 98
cottonseed meal 6,721 3,012 7,763 9,143
soymeal 649,933 743,928 765,554 799,066
soymeal flour/me 142,968 206,425 291,438 243,079
soymeal hulls 6,162 7,877 24,552 16,548
lard 8,484,774 17,103,624 7,741,964 4,781,195
edible tallow 20,233,060 18,338,969 13,892,557 13,027,450
inedible tallow 27,045,537 23,268,879 42,497,790 51,796,861
ch white grease 97,550 52,702 0 198,709

DJ Food Prices Near Decade High –UN FAO
By Will Horner
Global food prices neared a decade high in October, lifted by rising prices of grains and vegetable oils, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The FAO’s Food Price Index rose 3% from the previous months and over 31% from its October 2020 level. The index is now at its highest level since July 2011.
Tight supplies of some of the most common foodstuffs have helped drive the rally which shows little sign of easing. Poor harvests have contributed to rising grains prices while strong demand has lifted vegetable oil prices.
Grain price rose 3.2% in October month-on-month, led by soaring grain prices, the FAO said. As well as poor harvest in North America, the market has been tightened by exporter controls on major producer Russia’s grains exports.
Vegetable oil prices jumped 9.6% month-on-month, reaching an all-time high, thanks to price gains for palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, the FAO said. Meanwhile, demand for vegetable oils has been strong, particularly from India, which lowered tariffs on edible oils, the organization said.
Dairy prices also rose by a more modest 2.2% month-on-month amid tight milk supplies in Europe and global import demand.
Meat and sugar prices declined by 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively, month-on-month, though prices of both foodstuffs remain significantly above their 2020 levels.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday on follow through selling most likely by speculators. Trends are still up in all three markets but the price action yesterday implies that a few days of correction trading are possible before the uptrend resumes. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 745, 744, and 736 December, with resistance at 800, 807, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 794, 786, and 767 December, with resistance at 814, 818, and 824 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1047, 1032, and 1011 December, and resistance is at 1088, 1094, and 1100 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was little changed in consolidation trtading. Short term trends are down on the charts. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. There ws little in the way iof news for participants to react to. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1301, 1294, and 1288 January and resistance is at 1338, 1345, and 1354 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats both closed lower yesterday in correction trading. It was a correction trade for the Corn. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Export demand has generally been on the weak side. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.107 million barrels per day last week, from 1.106 million the previous week and 961,000 barrels per day last year. About 112.4 million barrels of Corn was used last week to produce ethanol from 112.3 million the previous week and 100.4 million last year. Corn use for ethanol this marketing year is now 862 million bushels, from 824 million the previous year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 554, 548, and 540 December, and resistance is at 573, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed to with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 728, 723, and 708 December, and resistance is at 780, 786, and 794 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower yesterday, with Soybean Meal higher. Soybeans remain in a trading range on the daily charts. The weekly charts imply that Soybeans are constructing a harvest low right now but the low has not been completed yet. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 100,000 tons of US Soybreans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1227, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1266, 1274, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 and 346.00 December. Support is at 334.00, 328.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 341.00 344.00, and 347.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6240, 6360, and 6400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower as a correction day finally hit and as the harvest is starting to wind down. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 971.00, 963.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 993.00, 1002.00, and 1008.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4850, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5090, 5220, and 5680 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 979.80 25.00 Jan. 2022 up 15.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1045.80 55.00 Jan. 2022 up 20.60
Basis: Vancouver 1070.80 80.00 Jan. 2022 up 20.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 236,084 lots, or 15.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,276 6,400 6,276 6,400 6,315 6,371 56 222 2,086
Jan-22 6,320 6,441 6,311 6,423 6,304 6,372 68 176,780 164,560
Mar-22 6,328 6,435 6,324 6,415 6,306 6,378 72 43,904 74,354
May-22 6,288 6,384 6,267 6,364 6,254 6,333 79 4,717 7,464
Jul-22 6,201 6,339 6,196 6,326 6,165 6,263 98 10,360 9,556
Sep-22 6,080 6,204 6,080 6,196 6,081 6,152 71 101 168
Corn
Turnover: 676,734 lots, or 18.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,650 2,655 2,627 2,655 2,610 2,645 35 1,166 12,766
Jan-22 2,655 2,689 2,648 2,676 2,654 2,669 15 481,578 774,788
Mar-22 2,671 2,701 2,663 2,684 2,667 2,682 15 51,919 207,152
May-22 2,700 2,725 2,687 2,712 2,696 2,707 11 106,433 204,711
Jul-22 2,699 2,723 2,693 2,715 2,698 2,709 11 31,319 70,780
Sep-22 2,706 2,730 2,700 2,714 2,706 2,714 8 4,319 6,461
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,119,296 lots, or 34.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,215 3,250 3,215 3,240 3,278 3,232 -46 41 4,386
Dec-21 3,253 3,283 3,223 3,250 3,255 3,251 -4 9,352 21,158
Jan-22 3,130 3,153 3,102 3,135 3,134 3,128 -6 731,341 1,105,982
Mar-22 3,013 3,022 2,981 3,010 3,026 3,002 -24 47,921 315,204
May-22 2,963 2,980 2,946 2,969 2,983 2,963 -20 262,835 779,099
Jul-22 2,964 2,981 2,949 2,970 2,984 2,966 -18 36,982 138,608
Aug-22 3,039 3,052 3,019 3,044 3,056 3,037 -19 22,248 61,814
Sep-22 3,041 3,050 3,018 3,041 3,053 3,034 -19 8,576 49,253
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,079,758 lots, or 10.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,386 10,386 10,386 0 0 1,821
Dec-21 10,330 10,330 9,822 9,834 10,060 10,060 0 2,903 12,252
Jan-22 9,932 9,940 9,494 9,514 9,760 9,710 -50 928,260 350,243
Feb-22 9,740 9,746 9,300 9,314 9,524 9,532 8 31,327 82,711
Mar-22 9,440 9,462 9,026 9,026 9,266 9,206 -60 8,507 41,022
Apr-22 9,132 9,150 8,772 8,798 9,004 8,964 -40 13,233 27,606
May-22 8,892 8,900 8,534 8,560 8,756 8,706 -50 91,314 68,290
Jun-22 8,674 8,680 8,324 8,360 8,508 8,526 18 3,707 5,321
Jul-22 8,612 8,614 8,260 8,310 8,580 8,458 -122 5 1,230
Aug-22 8,356 8,356 8,128 8,128 8,300 8,336 36 317 3,467
Sep-22 8,234 8,234 7,966 7,982 8,160 8,086 -74 184 579
Oct-22 7,950 7,950 7,950 7,950 8,102 7,950 -152 1 147
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,018,870 lots, or 99.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,014 10,196 10,014 -182 0 1,000
Dec-21 10,286 10,390 9,968 9,968 10,154 10,138 -16 1,515 11,487
Jan-22 10,098 10,100 9,686 9,700 9,932 9,882 -50 820,324 417,860
Mar-22 9,618 9,640 9,264 9,276 9,462 9,460 -2 20,737 112,875
May-22 9,242 9,250 8,916 8,932 9,092 9,070 -22 129,698 169,359
Jul-22 8,968 8,982 8,612 8,620 8,836 8,778 -58 30,714 69,875
Aug-22 8,936 8,936 8,566 8,568 8,808 8,730 -78 14,868 22,609
Sep-22 8,794 8,794 8,530 8,530 8,730 8,636 -94 1,014 1,641
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322