About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 04, 2021 40 Nov 02, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 04, 2021 10 Oct 28, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday in correction trading. Trends are still up in all three markets. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 786, 780, and 745 December, with resistance at 800, 807, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 794, 786, and 767 December, with resistance at 814, 818, and 824 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1047, 1032, and 1011 December, and resistance is at 1088, 1094, and 1100 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in what appeared to be speculative stop loss selling yesterday. Short term trends are down on the charts. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1301, 1294, and 1288 January and resistance is at 1338, 1345, and 1354 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 3
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.02 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.99 9.59 0.00
Broken 9.53 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterday. It was a correction trade for the Corn.
Supplies of Oats remain tight. Corn also has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Export demand was not strong last week and has generally been on the weak side. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 569, 554, and 548 December, and resistance is at 582, 586, and 594 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 723, 708, and 686 December, and resistance is at 780, 786, and 794 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher yesterday, with Soybean Oil a little lower and Soybean Meal higher. The weekly charts imply that Soybeans are constructing a harvest low right now but the low has not been completed yet. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but there were only two sales announcements last week and one yesterday. The weekly export sales report was less than trade expectations. .The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1227, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1266, 1274, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 328.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 338.00 341.00, and 344.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6360, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today but a little lower yesterday in range trading. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again as the harvest is starting to wind down. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 971.00, 963.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 996.00, 1002.00, and 1008.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4850, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5070, 5090, and 5220 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 979.80 25.00 Jan. 2022 up 15.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 1045.80 55.00 Jan. 2022 up 20.60
Basis: Vancouver 1070.80 80.00 Jan. 2022 up 20.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1362.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1327.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1252.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1172.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1365.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1330.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1255.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1175.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1350.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1210.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,450.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 507.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.152)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 199,770 lots, or 12.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,270 6,392 6,255 6,310 6,259 6,315 56 263 2,146
Jan-22 6,285 6,360 6,254 6,320 6,284 6,304 20 156,447 142,403
Mar-22 6,286 6,365 6,268 6,329 6,296 6,306 10 33,072 72,190
May-22 6,235 6,306 6,211 6,284 6,234 6,254 20 3,566 7,444
Jul-22 6,145 6,225 6,128 6,201 6,155 6,165 10 6,308 8,573
Sep-22 6,013 6,124 6,008 6,076 6,031 6,081 50 114 141
Corn
Turnover: 814,697 lots, or 21.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,610 2,610 2,610 2,610 2,597 2,610 13 50 13,975
Jan-22 2,639 2,675 2,635 2,657 2,633 2,654 21 611,686 743,689
Mar-22 2,650 2,686 2,650 2,671 2,641 2,667 26 65,812 203,615
May-22 2,679 2,716 2,676 2,696 2,674 2,696 22 107,964 185,787
Jul-22 2,683 2,715 2,680 2,699 2,676 2,698 22 26,018 67,395
Sep-22 2,682 2,720 2,682 2,704 2,681 2,706 25 3,167 4,984
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,461,555 lots, or 44.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,240 3,280 3,240 3,280 3,366 3,278 -88 29 4,425
Dec-21 3,260 3,277 3,216 3,243 3,276 3,255 -21 7,785 24,451
Jan-22 3,143 3,169 3,109 3,130 3,159 3,134 -25 848,514 1,125,611
Mar-22 3,042 3,065 2,993 3,000 3,051 3,026 -25 63,328 313,818
May-22 3,005 3,028 2,947 2,961 3,010 2,983 -27 454,252 762,989
Jul-22 3,011 3,029 2,951 2,960 3,014 2,984 -30 43,033 134,195
Aug-22 3,084 3,098 3,020 3,039 3,084 3,056 -28 26,338 61,039
Sep-22 3,077 3,096 3,021 3,033 3,083 3,053 -30 18,276 48,451
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,046,513 lots, or 10.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,386 10,386 10,386 0 0 1,821
Dec-21 10,000 10,266 9,900 10,250 10,000 10,060 60 3,934 12,898
Jan-22 9,716 9,966 9,586 9,940 9,670 9,760 90 912,863 399,013
Feb-22 9,512 9,760 9,388 9,740 9,458 9,524 66 30,140 84,027
Mar-22 9,198 9,470 9,128 9,448 9,198 9,266 68 8,710 41,444
Apr-22 9,032 9,178 8,880 9,146 8,960 9,004 44 12,502 27,277
May-22 8,728 8,918 8,634 8,892 8,704 8,756 52 72,764 66,624
Jun-22 8,594 8,706 8,406 8,676 8,536 8,508 -28 4,549 4,800
Jul-22 8,446 8,658 8,446 8,638 8,454 8,580 126 5 1,232
Aug-22 8,292 8,400 8,212 8,400 8,276 8,300 24 765 3,699
Sep-22 8,156 8,248 8,028 8,232 8,150 8,160 10 278 552
Oct-22 8,130 8,130 8,088 8,088 8,090 8,102 12 3 147
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 940,973 lots, or 91.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 – – – 10,196 10,196 10,196 0 0 1,000
Dec-21 10,130 10,348 10,062 10,340 10,042 10,154 112 3,386 12,772
Jan-22 9,902 10,112 9,808 10,094 9,862 9,932 70 761,239 445,483
Mar-22 9,438 9,658 9,360 9,642 9,424 9,462 38 25,227 112,918
May-22 9,092 9,260 8,984 9,236 9,066 9,092 26 114,026 160,730
Jul-22 8,832 9,004 8,738 8,976 8,832 8,836 4 24,700 68,829
Aug-22 8,852 8,972 8,702 8,946 8,806 8,808 2 11,755 22,539
Sep-22 8,736 8,824 8,602 8,814 8,688 8,730 42 640 1,645
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322