Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher to almost limit up on demand ideas as USDA showed another strong week of export sales and as the US Dollar Index was weaker. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast should see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 116.66 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,357 bales, from 18,357 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12000 and 12940 December. Support is at 11650, 11290, and 11100 December, with resistance of 12010, 12060 and 12140 December.
Date 31-Oct 24-Oct 2020 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 94 91 98 95
Cotton Harvested 45 35 51 48
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 0 5 33 49 13
Cotton Last Week 1 5 30 48 16
Cotton Last Year 5 28 29 29 8
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and chart trends are turning down. It looks like the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing so speculators have gotten out of longs and are going short. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE sais that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 119.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 125.00, 127.00, and 128.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday as the lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Some major storms hit Vietnamese Coffee areas last week and containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Covid has also returned to Vietnam in a big way and could be a factor in interrupting shipments. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures and for now especially the futures market in London. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam now as the tropical storms have passed. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts but are up on the weekly charts in London.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.877 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 197.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 210.00, 215.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2170, and 2130 January, and resistance is at 2280, 2310, and 2340 January.
General Comments: New York and London were higher. Weekly and daily charts show mixed trends. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UNICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Production is now estimated at 30.5 million tons by a producers group there, down 1.6^ from earlier industry estimates. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal. USDA said that Sugarbeets were 87% harvested, from 64% last week, 94% last year, and 84% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1870 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 498.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March, and resistance is at 504.00, 508.00, and 515.00 March.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower in currency related trading. Trends are sideways on the daily charts for New York but are down in London. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.305 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2510, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2680 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 December, with resistance at 1740, 1750, and 1770 December