About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 03, 2021 57 Nov 01, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 03, 2021 117 Oct 28, 2021

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 1
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 01, 2021 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 28, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/28/2021 10/21/2021 10/29/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,596 0 0 9,743 9,867
CORN 619,340 634,864 740,612 5,422,076 6,910,239
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 389
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 200 1,196
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 77,108 80,090 103,320 495,051 648,414
SOYBEANS 2,272,003 2,565,929 2,390,548 10,863,867 17,173,444
SUNFLOWER 96 192 0 432 0
WHEAT 115,341 197,479 313,355 9,651,110 11,403,129
Total 3,085,484 3,478,554 3,547,835 26,442,503 36,146,678
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 31-Oct 24-Oct 2020 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 94 91 98 95
Cotton Harvested 45 35 51 48
Corn Harvested 74 66 81 66
Soybeans Harvested 79 73 86 81
Sorghum Mature 96 93 97 93
Sorghum Harvested 80 71 81 70
Peanuts Harvested 67 51 65 74
Sugarbeets Harvested 87 64 94 84
Sunflowers Harvested 53 40 59 50
Winter Wheat Planted 87 80 88 86
Winter Wheat Emerged 67 55 70 68

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 0 5 33 49 13
Cotton Last Week 1 5 30 48 16
Cotton Last Year 5 28 29 29 8

Winter Wheat This Week 7 14 34 40 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 13 34 40 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 13 38 37 6

Pasture and Range This Week 20 22 32 23 3
Pasture and Range Last Week 21 22 33 21 3
Pasture and Range Last Year 18 25 37 18 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed sharply higher yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was the leader and is in a post harvest rally that has been very impressive. The Winter Wheat markets are also showing impressive chart formations that promise much more upside potential. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 786, 780, and 745 December, with resistance at 800, 806, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 794, 786, and 767 December, with resistance at 8012, 818, and 824 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1047, 1032, and 1011 December, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 10594 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading again yesterday. Short term down trends are down on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi although there have been some milling problems as milling yields have been generally low.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1326 January. Support is at 1345, 1338, and 1331 January and resistance is at 1354, 1368, and 1372 January.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on demand ideas and as supplies of Oats remain tight. Corn also has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Export demand was not strong last week but has been improved in recent reports. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime next month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 582 and 624 December. Support is at 569, 554, and 548 December, and resistance is at 582, 594, and 5600 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 723, 708, and 686 December, and resistance is at 768, 774, and 780 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower yesterday and the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil higher and Soybean Meal lower. The weekly charts imply that Soybeans are constructing a harvest low right now but the low has not been completed yet. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but there were only two sales announcements last week and n e yesterday. The weekly export sales report was less than trade expectations. .The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1227, and 12322 January, and resistance is at 1266, 1274, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 328.00, 323.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 334.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6360, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in response to weak monthly export data from the private sources. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again as the harvest is starting to wind down. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 963.00, 9348.00, and 938.00 January, with resistance at 978.00, 984.00, and 990.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5070, 5090, and 5220 January.

DJ Malaysia October Palm Oil Exports Fell 11% to 1.45 Mln Tons, AmSpec Says
By Chester Tay
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for October are estimated to have fallen 11% from the previous month to 1,453,097 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct 1-31 Sept 1-30
RBD Palm Olein 453,281 537,515
RBD Palm Oil 85,660 93,782
RBD Palm Stearin 98,005 124,422
Crude Palm Oil 362,480 388,523
Total* 1,453,097 1,628,168
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 1
WINNIPEG, Nov. 1 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 979.80 -78.20 Nov. 2021 up 4.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 1025.20 55.00 Jan. 2022 up 30.40
Basis: Vancouver 1050.20 80.00 Jan. 2022 up 25.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1362.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1312.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1242.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1142.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1365.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1315.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1245.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1145.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1340.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1210.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,430.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 502.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.146)

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322