About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on demand ideas as USDA showed another strong week of export sales and as the US Dollar Index turned weaker. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast should see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 111.67 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,357 bales, from 26,021 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12000 and 12940 December. Support is at 11130, 10900, and 10770 December, with resistance of 11650, 11720 and 11780 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 26, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 373,381
: Positions :
: 89,588 9,373 88,386 75,009 252,038 96,032 11,667 349,014 361,465: 24,367 11,916
: Changes from: October 19, 2021 (Change in open interest: 1,705) :
: -4,259 -671 3,399 3,034 -1,074 -593 -489 1,580 1,165: 125 540
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.0 2.5 23.7 20.1 67.5 25.7 3.1 93.5 96.8: 6.5 3.2
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 140 39 95 60 66 46 16 280 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week and chart trends are starting to turn down. Reports indicate that the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE sais that 0 notices were posted against futures for November delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 132.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 26, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,377 :
: Positions :
: 5,500 8,063 1,785 123 0 877 1,399 157 1,358 787 1,151 :
: Changes from: October 19, 2021 :
: 296 -114 217 -24 -1 -191 4 64 -24 57 -106 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.1 60.3 13.3 0.9 0.0 6.6 10.5 1.2 10.1 5.9 8.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 17 12 5 . 0 4 7 . 14 8 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week as the lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. London was te leader to the upside last week. Some major storms hit Vietnamese Coffee areas and containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures and for now especially the futures market in London. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam now as the tropical storms have passed. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts but are up on the weekly charts in London.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.879 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 208.00, 210.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2090 January, and resistance is at 2220, 2280, and 2310 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 26, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 383,978
: Positions :
: 56,602 11,744 141,385 99,842 205,424 73,886 17,699 371,715 376,253: 12,262 7,725
: Changes from: October 19, 2021 (Change in open interest: 5,729) :
: -184 298 3,667 1,560 1,693 979 313 6,023 5,971: -293 -241
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 3.1 36.8 26.0 53.5 19.2 4.6 96.8 98.0: 3.2 2.0
: Total Traders: 440 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 169 61 146 113 128 45 19 392 311:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/26/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
120,944 43,030 81,179 4,918 5,463 1,422
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.6% 67.1% 4.1% 4.5% 1.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 37 40 10 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,960 2,063 7,394 1,640 3,459 16,352
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.0% 1.7% 6.1% 1.4% 2.9% 13.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 4 11 12 9 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,228 3,612
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 3.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as the market tries to hold at current trading levels. Weekly charts show mixed trends but the daily charts show potential down trends developing. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UNICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue. New York was the weaker market on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Production is now estimated at 30.5 million tons by a producers group there, down 1.6^ from earlier industry estimates. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 19910, 1880, and 1870 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 498.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March, and resistance is at 504.00, 508.00, and 515.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 26, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,051,847
: Positions :
: 164,956 52,839 220,457 301,970 648,139 265,863 78,830 953,245 1,000,265: 98,602 51,583
: Changes from: October 19, 2021 (Change in open interest: 26,929) :
: -16,711 -2,680 13,091 20,939 21,454 1,621 1,930 18,939 33,795: 7,990 -6,866
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 5.0 21.0 28.7 61.6 25.3 7.5 90.6 95.1: 9.4 4.9
: Total Traders: 235 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 33 66 75 70 40 20 214 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/26/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
70,129 34,047 53,982 8,066 3,245 3,494
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 48.5% 77.0% 11.5% 4.6% 5.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
95 31 34 9 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,693 2,072 3,337 537 610 477
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.5% 3.0% 4.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 5 9 5 3 4
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,478 2,912
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as chart trends started to turn down. Trends are sideways on the daily charts for New York. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 5.324 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1660 December, with resistance at 1740, 1750, and 1770 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 26, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 281,229
: Positions :
: 27,122 39,653 63,579 123,158 153,112 55,462 16,953 269,321 273,296: 11,908 7,933
: Changes from: October 19, 2021 (Change in open interest: -4,362) :
: -4,626 -2,767 -2,665 2,833 1,505 427 -399 -4,032 -4,326: -330 -36
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 14.1 22.6 43.8 54.4 19.7 6.0 95.8 97.2: 4.2 2.8
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 64 78 46 42 33 18 185 160:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/26/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
321,998 170,885 254,142 38,378 6,760 12,176
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.1% 78.9% 11.9% 2.1% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 45 40 17 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
53,784 7,000 8,820 5,150 798 30,000
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.7% 2.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.2% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 12 13 13 7 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,805 2,302
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322