About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on demand ideas as USDA showed another strong week of export sales and as the US Dollar Index turned weaker. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast should see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 119.55 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,021 bales, from 26,021 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 12000 and 12940 December. Support is at 10900, 10770, and 10590 December, with resistance of 11650, 11720 and 11780 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little lower and chart trends are starting to turn down but are still holding to the sideways pattern. Reports indicate that the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 132.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as the lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Some major storms have hit Vietnamese Coffee areas and containers are not available in Vietnam to ship the Coffee. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures and for now especially the futures market in London. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are being reported in Vietnam from a tropical system. The rains are going away now for at least a few days. No big winds are reported so the Coffee should not fall from the trees that much. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa. Chart trends are mixed.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.888 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 208.00, 210.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2090 January, and resistance is at 2220, 2280, and 2310 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as the market tries to hold at current trading levels. London was the leader yesterday. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UBICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue. New York was the weaker market on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Production is now estimated at 30.5 million tons by a producers group there, down 1.6^ from earlier industry estimates. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2040, and 2060 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 512.00 and 524.00 March. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 March, and resistance is at 509.00, 515.00, and 523.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher in consolidation trading and London closed lower as chart trends started to turn down. Trends are sideways on the daily charts for New York. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much lower today at 5.217 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1690, and 1680 December, with resistance at 1750, 1770, and 1820 December

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322