About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 29
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 01, 2021 479 Oct 28, 2021
SOYBEAN November Nov 01, 2021 1,318 Oct 22, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was the leader and is in a post harvest rally that has been impressive. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 781, 785, and 807 December. Support is at 763, 745, and 744 December, with resistance at 782, 788, and 794 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 767, 764, and 761 December, with resistance at 800, 806, and 812 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1032, 1021, and 1008 December, and resistance is at 1047, 1050, and 1056 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in consolidation trading. Short term down trends are on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi although there have been some milling problems as milling yields have been generally low.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Chart data is not available today.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher again yesterday. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Export demand was not strong last week but has been improved in recent reports. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime next month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Farmers are reported to be limited sellers at best. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. The Oats market knows that supplies will continue to be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 279,415 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 582 and 624 December. Support is at 554, 548, and 540 December, and resistance is at 569, 578, and 582 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 731 and 792 December. Support is at 686, 670, and 649 December, and resistance is at 720, 726, and 732 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower yesterday but the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil lower and Soybean Meal higher. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but there has been only one sales announcement so far this week and the weekly export sales report was less than trade expectations. Mexico also bought US Soybeans. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 232,350 tons and 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1227, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1266, 1274, and 1292 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 December. Support is at 328.00, 323.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 334.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6050 and 5900 December. Support is at 6050, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6200, 6360, and 6400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with Chicago Soybean Oil as supply concerns continue even with slow exports as reported by the private services. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher in November once again yesterday on bad production ideas. The other months were lower in the face of selling in Chicago Soybean Oil. November was the leader to the upside as processors and other industry take protection in futures. Trends are up on the daily charts. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are turning back up. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 938.00, 932.00, and 915.00 January, with resistance at 971.00, 978.00, and 984.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4950, 5070, and 5090 January.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 28
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Oct. 24, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2819.0 745.0 321.9 512.8 52.9 1629.5 330.8 42.0 7446.7
Week Ago 2689.7 659.3 297.0 609.6 42.0 1503.6 382.5 29.8 7120.8
Year Ago 2377.3 975.2 327.5 515.9 76.9 1703.2 354.3 37.1 7529.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 442.8 107.8 59.5 140.8 13.5 420.9 14.4 10.3 1328.6
Week Ago 288.8 78.3 45.4 130.2 6.2 353.3 12.0 8.6 1034.7
To Date 3999.6 929.7 594.2 1750.2 66.5 4582.7 957.0 82.5 14077.9
Year Ago 5016.8 1350.3 876.7 1356.7 116.6 5516.1 1557.1 94.8 17388.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 250.3 82.4 0.3 138.0 3.8 251.5 11.0 11.8 1226.1
Week Ago 212.5 68.5 2.7 116.9 1.4 275.9 13.1 0.5 1054.4
To Date 4287.4 794.8 91.9 993.6 7.8 1904.9 670.4 43.5 10626.9
Year Ago 6022.5 1438.4 197.1 753.5 36.9 3210.5 1116.4 20.9 14909.0
EXPORTS
This Week 185.5 4.1 18.2 231.5 1.5 274.6 72.2 8.5 1180.6
Week Ago 95.8 64.1 25.6 153.7 1.6 185.4 1.3 0.0 647.1
To Date 2958.9 739.3 375.9 924.9 14.6 1443.8 640.7 43.9 8086.4
Year Ago 4799.1 913.2 555.3 749.7 58.5 2762.2 1135.7 10.1 12201.8
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 77.1 9.1 14.6 47.7 1.2 202.3 5.9 14.1 396.4
Week Ago 57.0 4.9 16.0 46.6 0.6 233.5 5.5 11.3 459.3
To Date 1139.3 63.7 183.2 416.4 11.8 2184.9 70.9 205.9 4641.0
Year Ago 1205.1 108.4 169.4 271.0 14.6 2398.0 46.2 206.0 4818.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rain from west to east over the weekend and then dry next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 980.60 -2.70 Nov 2021 up 6.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 990.30 35.00 Jan 2022 dn 5.30
Basis: Vancouver 1,020.30 65.00 Jan 2022 dn 5.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1372.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1322.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1252.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1157.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1375.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1325.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1255.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1160.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1330.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1225.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,450.00 +90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 500.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.139)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 202,916 lots, or 12.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,130 6,236 6,110 6,236 6,135 6,190 55 5,288 6,377
Jan-22 6,134 6,269 6,134 6,244 6,153 6,210 57 152,639 131,198
Mar-22 6,156 6,282 6,148 6,250 6,170 6,223 53 35,105 66,981
May-22 6,108 6,225 6,106 6,188 6,125 6,180 55 3,171 6,151
Jul-22 6,066 6,169 6,063 6,139 6,077 6,132 55 6,637 8,339
Sep-22 5,986 6,043 5,977 6,015 5,980 6,009 29 76 99
Corn
Turnover: 879,015 lots, or 22.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,551 2,612 2,551 2,612 2,572 2,587 15 5,365 36,587
Jan-22 2,588 2,635 2,587 2,627 2,590 2,610 20 666,012 742,734
Mar-22 2,595 2,641 2,590 2,635 2,596 2,612 16 109,650 214,394
May-22 2,637 2,674 2,628 2,668 2,636 2,652 16 68,665 144,643
Jul-22 2,648 2,678 2,644 2,671 2,652 2,659 7 26,597 60,344
Sep-22 2,655 2,685 2,655 2,680 2,661 2,666 5 2,726 4,807
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,349,054 lots, or 4.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,360 3,466 3,357 3,446 3,492 3,383 -109 2,430 4,978
Dec-21 3,390 3,418 3,361 3,366 3,422 3,394 -28 93,069 50,286
Jan-22 3,255 3,277 3,231 3,233 3,257 3,253 -4 831,293 1,199,078
Mar-22 3,078 3,106 3,078 3,082 3,078 3,094 16 88,869 304,516
May-22 3,052 3,078 3,043 3,045 3,046 3,059 13 268,304 742,230
Jul-22 3,050 3,077 3,049 3,052 3,047 3,063 16 34,862 114,547
Aug-22 3,119 3,150 3,117 3,123 3,119 3,135 16 12,936 45,980
Sep-22 3,116 3,151 3,116 3,122 3,120 3,134 14 17,291 43,951
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,218,616 lots, or 11.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 9,942 11,144 9,930 10,400 10,392 10,386 -6 341 1,821
Dec-21 9,760 10,080 9,744 10,080 9,712 9,910 198 32,061 25,426
Jan-22 9,472 9,774 9,460 9,770 9,440 9,600 160 969,922 376,715
Feb-22 9,230 9,574 9,230 9,574 9,230 9,398 168 84,386 81,692
Mar-22 9,030 9,316 9,030 9,316 9,026 9,160 134 37,383 38,321
Apr-22 8,780 9,060 8,780 9,054 8,780 8,936 156 27,292 22,414
May-22 8,594 8,816 8,586 8,812 8,594 8,694 100 66,991 59,398
Jun-22 8,556 8,738 8,556 8,738 8,494 8,618 124 5 544
Jul-22 8,498 8,782 8,498 8,782 8,446 8,562 116 7 1,226
Aug-22 8,418 8,418 8,400 8,400 8,200 8,400 200 51 3,131
Sep-22 8,124 8,284 8,110 8,270 8,126 8,200 74 154 477
Oct-22 8,172 8,196 8,118 8,196 8,038 8,172 134 23 22
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 944,606 lots, or 92.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 10,028 10,288 9,620 10,276 10,182 10,120 -62 783 1,001
Dec-21 10,030 10,190 10,022 10,184 10,020 10,114 94 8,932 31,334
Jan-22 9,796 9,984 9,768 9,984 9,764 9,872 108 766,269 425,502
Mar-22 9,368 9,556 9,348 9,550 9,336 9,450 114 37,497 101,828
May-22 9,002 9,188 8,980 9,180 8,996 9,074 78 98,141 152,185
Jul-22 8,792 8,980 8,688 8,968 8,796 8,866 70 21,690 60,430
Aug-22 8,758 8,936 8,746 8,934 8,746 8,848 102 10,867 22,090
Sep-22 8,686 8,858 8,648 8,858 8,682 8,766 84 427 1,479
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322