About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on demand ideas. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected. Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 107.34 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,021 bales, from 26,021 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 360,800 bales this year and 20,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 8,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10770, 10590, and 10530 December, with resistance of 11130, 11290 and 11390 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little higher and chart trends are still starting to turn up but are still holding to the sideways pattern. November closed a little lower as traders rolled into January or March. Reports indicate that the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 118.00, and 116.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much lower as the lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts remains a factor. Some major storms have hit Vietnamese Coffee areas. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Trends are mixed in New York but are still up in London. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures and for now especially the futures market in London. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are being reported in Vietnam from a tropical system. No big winds are expected so the Coffee should not fall from the trees that much. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.888 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 208.00, 210.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2240, 2180, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as the market tries to hold at current trading levels. London was the leader yesterday. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UBICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue. New York was the weaker market on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2040, and 2060 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 511.00, 505.00, and 497.00 December, and resistance is at 522.00, 527.00, and 534.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher in consolidation trading and London closed lower as chart trends started to turn down. Trends are sideways on the daily charts for New York. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making a strong rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.339 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1690, and 1680 December, with resistance at 1750, 1770, and 1820 December

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322